Didier Sornette

Most interesting is the last chapter. He uses the techniques of the previous chapters to project that if the current global faster-than-exponential growth continues we will arrive at a singularity at about the year 2050. Since there cannot be an actual singularity, this predicts the end of the faster-than-exponential growth of the past few hundred years. We have been saying for about 50 years that this cannot go on. He offers a new theory much better than the Limits to Growth book.

But note that the transition does not need to be completed in the next thirty or so years. As we gradually reduce our global growth to less than exponential we gradually push off the predicted singularity point into the future.

The even bigger picture is that the above is based on growth of population and current use of resources. But solar energy will be practically unlimited forever and there is no limit to our ability to develop new techniques for producing more useful products from the finite resources of the planet. Once we stabilize population we can continually increase wealth - the satisfaction of wants - forever.… (meer)

Somehow compelling despite being almost impenetrably opaque. Analogies are verbally drawn between market finance and all sorts of modern physical processes, but the mathematics remains somewhat underwhelming while remaining inscrutable. Much time is devoted to data-fitting apparently arbitrary curves upon past events with parameters which depend very sensitively upon the actual particulars of the financial crash in question - severely reducing the predictive capacity.

Nonetheless, an interesting book that deserves to be carefully read.… (meer)