Russia: international moves, West responses, Putin's revenge & future...Ukraine 7
Dit is een voortzetting van het onderwerp Russia: international moves, West responses, Putin's revenge & future...Ukraine 6.
Dit onderwerp werd voortgezet door Russia: international moves, West responses, Putin's revenge & future...Ukraine 8.
DiscussiePro and Con
Sluit je aan bij LibraryThing om te posten.
1margd
Olga Tokariuk @olgatokariuk | 9:57 AM · May 3, 2022
Independent journalist. @CEPA (Center for Eur Polcy Analysis) non-resident fellow. Disinformation researcher. Ex @Hromadske (independent Ukrainian media). In a special relationship with Italy. https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk
I will not comment on Pontifex latest remarks on his willingness to go to Moscow (but not Kyiv) and accusations that NATO provoked Russia. But it's really regrettably that time and time again, he is refusing Ukrainians' agency and doesn't want to listen to what they say
Here's the Pope's interview to @Corriere in English translation
To be fair, he didn't explicitly accuse NATO of provoking Russia, but alleged that 'NATO was barking at Russia's gate' and the West could be seen as responsible for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. A striking misunderstanding of the reasons of this war.
------------------------------------------------------------
Pope Francis: «I am ready to meet Putin in Moscow»
di Luciano Fontana
In an exclusive interview, Pope Francis says he is still waiting for an answer from Russia’s president, and fears he cannot, does not want t make this meeting at this time. He also says Russian Orthodoz Patriarch Kirill cannot become Putin’s altar boy
...Pope Bergoglio’s main concern is that Putin won’t stop any time soon. He tries to consider the roots of his behaviour, the reasons that are pushing him to engage in such a brutal conflict. Maybe it was "Nato barking at Russia’s gate" that compelled Putin to unleash the invasion of Ukraine. "I have no way of telling whether his rage has been provoked” Bergoglio wonders, "but I suspect it was maybe facilitated by the West’s attitude".
https://www.corriere.it/cronache/22_maggio_03/pope-francis-putin-e713a1de-cad0-1...
___________________________________________________
Volodymyr Yermolenko @yermolenko_v | 4:28 PM · May 3, 2022:
Ukrainian philosopher, analyst & journalist, chief editor at @ukraine_world - explaining Ukrainian politics & society in English. @InternewsUA
https://twitter.com/yermolenko_v/status/1521587636481277954
sometimes I hear an argument that "it's the West's fault" because NATO has enlarged despite Russia's objections. This is a remarkable Russia's hypocricy (Hypothesis). NATO enlarged in 1990s and 2000s, but ALL "post-Soviet" space (except for Baltics) was LEFT for Russia's influence.
Soviet Union hasn't collapsed in 1991, it continued to exist in a different form. Economy, politics, information space, cultural space, security: everything in the "post-Soviet" countries was controlled by Russia.
The West DIDN'T ENTER Eastern Europe economically and politically as it did with Visegrad countries or the Baltics. There was a silent consent that all "post-Soviet" countries were left for Russia. This is one of the roots of Ukrainian "oligarchy" or Belarusian dictatorship
despite this, Russia was foolish to alienate these countries (especially Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova) from itself. It had all "soft power" possibilities to keep its influence over them. But these efforts failed bc 1) history was no longer on RU side, 2) dictatorships are stupid
so don't believe Russian fairy tales that "it's all because of West's enlargement". We, Ukrainians, have a lot to say about the West's hypocrisy of NOT enlarging wide enough since collapse of USSR. We were silently treated as a Russian colony. Now we no longer tolerate this
Slavko Rinnyk @slavtheuke | 5:44 PM · May 3, 2022:
You forgot to mention that NATO was enlarged at the request of the countries seeking membership. No one was forced to join and nations can leave at will.
But a nation attempting to leave Russian sphere of influence gets bombed. Think Chechnya and Ukraine.
___________________________________________________
Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof | 2:46 PM · May 3, 2022
Multiple Russian cruise missile strikes on infrastructure targets across Ukraine tonight, parts of Lviv without power. Likely the biggest barrage since the beginning of the war.
Independent journalist. @CEPA (Center for Eur Polcy Analysis) non-resident fellow. Disinformation researcher. Ex @Hromadske (independent Ukrainian media). In a special relationship with Italy. https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk
I will not comment on Pontifex latest remarks on his willingness to go to Moscow (but not Kyiv) and accusations that NATO provoked Russia. But it's really regrettably that time and time again, he is refusing Ukrainians' agency and doesn't want to listen to what they say
Here's the Pope's interview to @Corriere in English translation
To be fair, he didn't explicitly accuse NATO of provoking Russia, but alleged that 'NATO was barking at Russia's gate' and the West could be seen as responsible for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. A striking misunderstanding of the reasons of this war.
------------------------------------------------------------
Pope Francis: «I am ready to meet Putin in Moscow»
di Luciano Fontana
In an exclusive interview, Pope Francis says he is still waiting for an answer from Russia’s president, and fears he cannot, does not want t make this meeting at this time. He also says Russian Orthodoz Patriarch Kirill cannot become Putin’s altar boy
...Pope Bergoglio’s main concern is that Putin won’t stop any time soon. He tries to consider the roots of his behaviour, the reasons that are pushing him to engage in such a brutal conflict. Maybe it was "Nato barking at Russia’s gate" that compelled Putin to unleash the invasion of Ukraine. "I have no way of telling whether his rage has been provoked” Bergoglio wonders, "but I suspect it was maybe facilitated by the West’s attitude".
https://www.corriere.it/cronache/22_maggio_03/pope-francis-putin-e713a1de-cad0-1...
___________________________________________________
Volodymyr Yermolenko @yermolenko_v | 4:28 PM · May 3, 2022:
Ukrainian philosopher, analyst & journalist, chief editor at @ukraine_world - explaining Ukrainian politics & society in English. @InternewsUA
https://twitter.com/yermolenko_v/status/1521587636481277954
sometimes I hear an argument that "it's the West's fault" because NATO has enlarged despite Russia's objections. This is a remarkable Russia's hypocricy (Hypothesis). NATO enlarged in 1990s and 2000s, but ALL "post-Soviet" space (except for Baltics) was LEFT for Russia's influence.
Soviet Union hasn't collapsed in 1991, it continued to exist in a different form. Economy, politics, information space, cultural space, security: everything in the "post-Soviet" countries was controlled by Russia.
The West DIDN'T ENTER Eastern Europe economically and politically as it did with Visegrad countries or the Baltics. There was a silent consent that all "post-Soviet" countries were left for Russia. This is one of the roots of Ukrainian "oligarchy" or Belarusian dictatorship
despite this, Russia was foolish to alienate these countries (especially Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova) from itself. It had all "soft power" possibilities to keep its influence over them. But these efforts failed bc 1) history was no longer on RU side, 2) dictatorships are stupid
so don't believe Russian fairy tales that "it's all because of West's enlargement". We, Ukrainians, have a lot to say about the West's hypocrisy of NOT enlarging wide enough since collapse of USSR. We were silently treated as a Russian colony. Now we no longer tolerate this
Slavko Rinnyk @slavtheuke | 5:44 PM · May 3, 2022:
You forgot to mention that NATO was enlarged at the request of the countries seeking membership. No one was forced to join and nations can leave at will.
But a nation attempting to leave Russian sphere of influence gets bombed. Think Chechnya and Ukraine.
___________________________________________________
Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof | 2:46 PM · May 3, 2022
Multiple Russian cruise missile strikes on infrastructure targets across Ukraine tonight, parts of Lviv without power. Likely the biggest barrage since the beginning of the war.
2margd
AP evidence points to 600 dead in Mariupol theater airstrike
LORI HINNANT, MSTYSLAV CHERNOV and VASILISA STEPANENKO | May 4, 2022
...Amid all the horrors that have unfolded in the war on Ukraine, the Russian bombing of the Donetsk Academic Regional Drama Theater in Mariupol on March 16 stands out as the single deadliest known attack against civilians to date. An Associated Press investigation has found evidence that the attack was in fact far deadlier than estimated, killing closer to 600 people inside and outside the building. That’s almost double the death toll cited so far, and many survivors put the number even higher.
The AP investigation recreated what happened inside the theater on that day from the accounts of 23 survivors, rescuers, and people intimately familiar with its new life as a bomb shelter. The AP also drew on two sets of floor plans of the theater, photos and video taken inside before, during and after that day and feedback from experts who reviewed the methodology...
https://apnews.com/article/Russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-theater-321a196fbd5688998...
LORI HINNANT, MSTYSLAV CHERNOV and VASILISA STEPANENKO | May 4, 2022
...Amid all the horrors that have unfolded in the war on Ukraine, the Russian bombing of the Donetsk Academic Regional Drama Theater in Mariupol on March 16 stands out as the single deadliest known attack against civilians to date. An Associated Press investigation has found evidence that the attack was in fact far deadlier than estimated, killing closer to 600 people inside and outside the building. That’s almost double the death toll cited so far, and many survivors put the number even higher.
The AP investigation recreated what happened inside the theater on that day from the accounts of 23 survivors, rescuers, and people intimately familiar with its new life as a bomb shelter. The AP also drew on two sets of floor plans of the theater, photos and video taken inside before, during and after that day and feedback from experts who reviewed the methodology...
https://apnews.com/article/Russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-theater-321a196fbd5688998...
3margd
Hungary, one of Russia’s strongest supporters in Europe and a favorite of the American Right, is a member of EU and NATO. CPAC meets in Hungary May 18-20, 2022... "RU also for the first time bombed Zakrpattya, the area the farthest west, bordering with Hungary."
Tymofiy Mylovanov @Mylovanov | 5:17 PM · May 3, 2022:
President, Kyiv School of Economics; Adviser, Zelensky administration; Minister of economy, Ukraine, 2019-2020; Associate professor, University of Pittsburgh
https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1521599843449327616
Tonight Russia bombed across Ukraine. In a change of strategy, they targeted specific electric infrastructure that powers up trains. They also for the first time bombed Zakrpattya, the area the farthest west, bordering with Hungary. Here is the list.
1. 8:50pm Kyiv time train Station Mukachevo region, damaged two administrative building and an electric station.
2. 8:50pm Kyiv time three different areas, electric stations, Lviv region.
3. 8:00pm Kyiv time train station, electric station, Dnipro region.
4. Reports that multiple missiles, incl heading for Kyiv have been shut down by air defense.
86’d Everywhere 🌻 @Dlus
What’s the over under on Hungary ignoring an accidental missile impact in his country?
Carman Upshaw @carman_upshaw
Orban would blame Ukraine if Russian missiles accidentally hit Hungary. He's fully invested in Putin's ultra-nationalism.
What will be interesting is when Putin falls and his populist support in Hungary falters how will he pivot or go it alone with Tucker
Tymofiy Mylovanov @Mylovanov | 5:17 PM · May 3, 2022:
President, Kyiv School of Economics; Adviser, Zelensky administration; Minister of economy, Ukraine, 2019-2020; Associate professor, University of Pittsburgh
https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1521599843449327616
Tonight Russia bombed across Ukraine. In a change of strategy, they targeted specific electric infrastructure that powers up trains. They also for the first time bombed Zakrpattya, the area the farthest west, bordering with Hungary. Here is the list.
1. 8:50pm Kyiv time train Station Mukachevo region, damaged two administrative building and an electric station.
2. 8:50pm Kyiv time three different areas, electric stations, Lviv region.
3. 8:00pm Kyiv time train station, electric station, Dnipro region.
4. Reports that multiple missiles, incl heading for Kyiv have been shut down by air defense.
86’d Everywhere 🌻 @Dlus
What’s the over under on Hungary ignoring an accidental missile impact in his country?
Carman Upshaw @carman_upshaw
Orban would blame Ukraine if Russian missiles accidentally hit Hungary. He's fully invested in Putin's ultra-nationalism.
What will be interesting is when Putin falls and his populist support in Hungary falters how will he pivot or go it alone with Tucker
4margd
Putin vs. His Oligarchs
Julia Ioffe | May 3, 2022
As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its third month, Putin’s chummy ruling class is feeling the burn. It’s a reminder that they were never so chummy in the first place.
Catherine Belton’s book, Putin’s People: How the KGB Took Back Russia and Then Took on the West
...Starting in 1980s Dresden and taking the reader through to the present day, Belton shows exactly how Vladimir Putin used his position and connections in the K.G.B., and later the F.S.B., to build a shadowy financial empire, one that he has used to fund Moscow’s efforts to undermine the West. In Washington, the book made a big splash since it was published a year ago. It has been read and discussed everywhere from Capitol Hill and the White House to C.I.A. headquarters at Langley. Which bodes well for the U.S. government’s view of Russia: if they’re imbibing Belton’s meticulous and original reporting, as well as her accurate portrayal of how Putin’s Russia runs, then there’s a good chance they won’t be as misguided as in years past...
https://puck.news/putin-vs-his-oligarchs/
Julia Ioffe | May 3, 2022
As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its third month, Putin’s chummy ruling class is feeling the burn. It’s a reminder that they were never so chummy in the first place.
Catherine Belton’s book, Putin’s People: How the KGB Took Back Russia and Then Took on the West
...Starting in 1980s Dresden and taking the reader through to the present day, Belton shows exactly how Vladimir Putin used his position and connections in the K.G.B., and later the F.S.B., to build a shadowy financial empire, one that he has used to fund Moscow’s efforts to undermine the West. In Washington, the book made a big splash since it was published a year ago. It has been read and discussed everywhere from Capitol Hill and the White House to C.I.A. headquarters at Langley. Which bodes well for the U.S. government’s view of Russia: if they’re imbibing Belton’s meticulous and original reporting, as well as her accurate portrayal of how Putin’s Russia runs, then there’s a good chance they won’t be as misguided as in years past...
https://puck.news/putin-vs-his-oligarchs/
5davidgn
Medea Benjamin and George Beebe on Democracy Now!
https://www.democracynow.org/2022/5/3/russia_us_escalate_likelihood_direct_clash
https://www.democracynow.org/2022/5/3/russia_us_escalate_likelihood_direct_clash
As President Biden seeks $33 billion more for Ukraine, we look at the dangers of U.S. military escalation with Medea Benjamin of CodePink and George Beebe of the Quincy Institute. He is the former head of Russia analysis at the CIA and a former adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney. The massive spending in Ukraine that outweighs public funding to combat the coronavirus pandemic shows that “there are very few things that the Biden administration thinks are more important right now than defeating Russia, and I don’t think that accords, actually, with the priorities of the American people,” says Beebe. “To support the people of Ukraine and stop the fighting, we need not to pour billions of dollars of more weapons in, but to say, 'Negotiations now,'” says Benjamin.
6margd
Global shockwaves of the Ukraine war could cause food crisis in Africa (6:01)
May 04, 2022
Nations dependent on grain imports from Eastern Europe are especially vulnerable to the ripple effects of the war in Ukraine.
Fourteen countries in Africa get at least half their wheat from Russia or Ukraine. That led the president of the African Development Bank, Akinwumi Adesina, to warn that the war could trigger a food crisis in Africa and “destabilize the continent.”
Here & Now‘s Scott Tong speaks with Danielle Resnick, a fellow at the Brookings Institution.
This article was originally published on WBUR.org.
https://knpr.org/npr/2022-05/global-shockwaves-ukraine-war-could-cause-food-cris...
May 04, 2022
Nations dependent on grain imports from Eastern Europe are especially vulnerable to the ripple effects of the war in Ukraine.
Fourteen countries in Africa get at least half their wheat from Russia or Ukraine. That led the president of the African Development Bank, Akinwumi Adesina, to warn that the war could trigger a food crisis in Africa and “destabilize the continent.”
Here & Now‘s Scott Tong speaks with Danielle Resnick, a fellow at the Brookings Institution.
This article was originally published on WBUR.org.
https://knpr.org/npr/2022-05/global-shockwaves-ukraine-war-could-cause-food-cris...
7Valerievna
Deze gebruiker is verwijderd als spam.
8margd
The argument that Ukraine "provoked" Putin by soliciting Western protection has the same reasoning defect as claiming that you "provoked" a burglar by installing a security system.
- Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb | 6:32 AM · May 5, 2022
https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1522162296960733185
Isn’t a better analogy: your house is in the neighborhood of one gang and you hired the rival gang to protect it? Not necessarily provocation, but predictably interpreted as such.
- Josh Hochschild @JoshHochschild | 8:10 AM · May 5, 2022
Narva in Estonia has been a NATO base 20km from Russia for 18 years. They are literally a bike ride from St Petersburg and 1000km from Moscow. Why did that neighbourhood gangster not provoke that anger for all these years, but the same gang much further away does?
- Christoph @christophgroene | 9:33 AM · May 5, 2022
- Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb | 6:32 AM · May 5, 2022
https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1522162296960733185
Isn’t a better analogy: your house is in the neighborhood of one gang and you hired the rival gang to protect it? Not necessarily provocation, but predictably interpreted as such.
- Josh Hochschild @JoshHochschild | 8:10 AM · May 5, 2022
Narva in Estonia has been a NATO base 20km from Russia for 18 years. They are literally a bike ride from St Petersburg and 1000km from Moscow. Why did that neighbourhood gangster not provoke that anger for all these years, but the same gang much further away does?
- Christoph @christophgroene | 9:33 AM · May 5, 2022
9margd
Sweden says it received U.S. security assurances if it hands in NATO application
Reuters | 4 May 2022
..period that 30 nations will take to process the application...
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-says-it-received-us-security-assuran...
---------------------------------------------------------------
ETA:
According to Finnish officials:
1) #Finland has received security assurances from US, UK, France, Germany…for duration NATO membership process.
2) After formal Finnish application, negotiations could be completed in two days. ...
Finlands flagga och Natos flagga
Finland har fått säkerhetsgarantier av Natos kärnvapenmakter under ansökningsprocessen till Nato –...
Exakt hur garantierna ser ut är hemligstämplat.
https://svenska.yle.fi/a/7-10016174
- C Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp | 10:26 AM · May 5, 2022
Reuters | 4 May 2022
..period that 30 nations will take to process the application...
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-says-it-received-us-security-assuran...
---------------------------------------------------------------
ETA:
According to Finnish officials:
1) #Finland has received security assurances from US, UK, France, Germany…for duration NATO membership process.
2) After formal Finnish application, negotiations could be completed in two days. ...
Finlands flagga och Natos flagga
Finland har fått säkerhetsgarantier av Natos kärnvapenmakter under ansökningsprocessen till Nato –...
Exakt hur garantierna ser ut är hemligstämplat.
https://svenska.yle.fi/a/7-10016174
- C Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp | 10:26 AM · May 5, 2022
10margd
More footage of the Russians shelling the "strategic" Gorky public park in Kharkiv.
1:24 ( https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1521959935860432901 )
Savagery. Barbarism.
- Euan MacDonald @Euan_MacDonald | 5:08 PM · May 4, 2022
Editor-At-Large for http://english.nv.ua, the New Voice of Ukraine, freelancer for BBC local radio, editor, translator, content creator...
1:24 ( https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1521959935860432901 )
Savagery. Barbarism.
- Euan MacDonald @Euan_MacDonald | 5:08 PM · May 4, 2022
Editor-At-Large for http://english.nv.ua, the New Voice of Ukraine, freelancer for BBC local radio, editor, translator, content creator...
11margd
>8 margd: contd.
A Clash of Two Systems
The war in Ukraine is a confrontation between two systems, one modern, legalistic, decentralized and multicephalous; the other archaic, nationalistic, centralized and monocephalous
Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Apr 19, 2022
Offensive vs. Defensive Nationalism
Coordination for Mafia-don Like Protection
What is it that We Call the West?
States vs Individuals
Solzhenitsyn
An Error Correction Mechanism
Alas, the EU is Centralized a bit too much…
Orthodoxy and Minor Patriarchs
Multicephaly did not help in 2014
Napoleon vs the English Shopkeeper
I am not Against Modernity; I am for its Improvement
Pseudo-Libertarianism Inviting Tyranny
The Long Peace
Russia Divided
Ending the Ukrainian War
If you give Putin even one finger, he will have won the war. Russia’s leadership must therefore be humiliated, and the only way is for it to retreat. We need a repetition of the 1905 Russo-Japanese war. In this case, Putin will be overthrown from the inside, because, historically, people who accept autocracies do not like the weak. A weak Putin is no longer Putin — just as a nice, tactful, and thoughtful Trump would no longer be Trump. For this to continue, it takes a lot of suckers to keep feeding the narrative — and if the suckers begin to doubt the story, it will be the beginning of the end.
https://medium.com/incerto/a-clash-of-two-systems-47009e9715e2
BACKGROUND
I have visited Ukraine many many times, most recently as the guest of the Zelenskys in August 2021 for the Ukrainian independence festivities. Last visit it felt like Hanibal ad portas. I had a lot of Vodkas with Ukrainians and discussed the ideas of this piece with a lot of friends, as well as members of the Ukrainian parliament in a special lecture on the fragility and stability of systems.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a Lebanese-American essayist, mathematical statistician, former option trader, risk analyst, and aphorist whose work concerns problems of randomness, probability, and uncertainty. The Sunday Times called his 2007 book The Black Swan one of the 12 most influential books since World War II. (Wikipedia)
A Clash of Two Systems
The war in Ukraine is a confrontation between two systems, one modern, legalistic, decentralized and multicephalous; the other archaic, nationalistic, centralized and monocephalous
Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Apr 19, 2022
Offensive vs. Defensive Nationalism
Coordination for Mafia-don Like Protection
What is it that We Call the West?
States vs Individuals
Solzhenitsyn
An Error Correction Mechanism
Alas, the EU is Centralized a bit too much…
Orthodoxy and Minor Patriarchs
Multicephaly did not help in 2014
Napoleon vs the English Shopkeeper
I am not Against Modernity; I am for its Improvement
Pseudo-Libertarianism Inviting Tyranny
The Long Peace
Russia Divided
Ending the Ukrainian War
If you give Putin even one finger, he will have won the war. Russia’s leadership must therefore be humiliated, and the only way is for it to retreat. We need a repetition of the 1905 Russo-Japanese war. In this case, Putin will be overthrown from the inside, because, historically, people who accept autocracies do not like the weak. A weak Putin is no longer Putin — just as a nice, tactful, and thoughtful Trump would no longer be Trump. For this to continue, it takes a lot of suckers to keep feeding the narrative — and if the suckers begin to doubt the story, it will be the beginning of the end.
https://medium.com/incerto/a-clash-of-two-systems-47009e9715e2
BACKGROUND
I have visited Ukraine many many times, most recently as the guest of the Zelenskys in August 2021 for the Ukrainian independence festivities. Last visit it felt like Hanibal ad portas. I had a lot of Vodkas with Ukrainians and discussed the ideas of this piece with a lot of friends, as well as members of the Ukrainian parliament in a special lecture on the fragility and stability of systems.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a Lebanese-American essayist, mathematical statistician, former option trader, risk analyst, and aphorist whose work concerns problems of randomness, probability, and uncertainty. The Sunday Times called his 2007 book The Black Swan one of the 12 most influential books since World War II. (Wikipedia)
12margd
Red, white, and black..."The flag of Nazi Germany, officially the flag of the German Reich, featured a red background with a black swastika on a white disc." (Wikipedia)
“The opponents of the letter Z must understand that they will not be spared. Everything is serious here: concentration camps, re-education, sterilization!” - this was declared by Shakhnazarov* on the state TV #RussiaWarCrimes
0:18 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1521802979619311618 )
- Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:44 AM · May 4, 2022
Ukrainian patriot. Adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. ...
* Karen Georgievich Shakhnazarov, PAR is a Soviet and Russian filmmaker, producer and screenwriter. He became the Director General of Mosfilm studios in 1998. Shakhnazarov is the son of a Georgy Shakhnazarov, a politician of Armenian descent, and a Russian housewife, Anna Grigorievna Shakhnazarova. (Wikipedia)
“The opponents of the letter Z must understand that they will not be spared. Everything is serious here: concentration camps, re-education, sterilization!” - this was declared by Shakhnazarov* on the state TV #RussiaWarCrimes
0:18 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1521802979619311618 )
- Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:44 AM · May 4, 2022
Ukrainian patriot. Adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. ...
* Karen Georgievich Shakhnazarov, PAR is a Soviet and Russian filmmaker, producer and screenwriter. He became the Director General of Mosfilm studios in 1998. Shakhnazarov is the son of a Georgy Shakhnazarov, a politician of Armenian descent, and a Russian housewife, Anna Grigorievna Shakhnazarova. (Wikipedia)
13margd
>1 margd: Oh, so that's what the multiple RU airstrikes across UA was about:
⚡️ Pentagon: Russian airstrikes fail to interfere with US arms transfers to Ukraine. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said on May 5 that Russian forces aimed at “critical infrastructure targets” in western Ukraine, including power facilities and transportation hubs.
- The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 10:11 PM · May 4, 2022
⚡️ Pentagon: Russian airstrikes fail to interfere with US arms transfers to Ukraine. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said on May 5 that Russian forces aimed at “critical infrastructure targets” in western Ukraine, including power facilities and transportation hubs.
- The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 10:11 PM · May 4, 2022
14margd
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 2:00 PM · May 6, 2022:
⚡️Putin to hint at nuclear war by displaying ‘doomsday’ plane at parade.
Russia’s annual May 9 parade will include a flight by the Il-80 “doomsday” plane, which would carry Russia’s top brass in the event of a nuclear war, Russia’s Defense Ministry said, as cited by Reuters.
The plane will take part in a Victory Day parade for the first time since 2010. The parade will also feature supersonic fighters and Tu-160 strategic bombers.
Photo ( https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1522637484169084928/photo/1 )
⚡️Putin to hint at nuclear war by displaying ‘doomsday’ plane at parade.
Russia’s annual May 9 parade will include a flight by the Il-80 “doomsday” plane, which would carry Russia’s top brass in the event of a nuclear war, Russia’s Defense Ministry said, as cited by Reuters.
The plane will take part in a Victory Day parade for the first time since 2010. The parade will also feature supersonic fighters and Tu-160 strategic bombers.
Photo ( https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1522637484169084928/photo/1 )
15margd
Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 @IAPonomarenko | 2:51 PM · May 6, 2022:
Defense reporter with The Kyiv Independent...A village guy from Donbas in a crusade for something better.
Newly liberated towns northeast of Kharkiv.
Russia is losing its artillery positions against the city and I think it can’t afford redeploying troops from Izium to deter the Ukrainian counter-strike.
I think in the nearest time we’ll see UA military coming to the Russian border.
Map via @Liveuamap ( https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1522650203362406403/photo/1 )
And Russian propaganda sh*t holes are already barraging messages saying the Ukrainian military liberating the Kharkiv Oblast and coming up to the Russian border means nothing and will not help Ukraine.
Of course, of course.
Defense reporter with The Kyiv Independent...A village guy from Donbas in a crusade for something better.
Newly liberated towns northeast of Kharkiv.
Russia is losing its artillery positions against the city and I think it can’t afford redeploying troops from Izium to deter the Ukrainian counter-strike.
I think in the nearest time we’ll see UA military coming to the Russian border.
Map via @Liveuamap ( https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1522650203362406403/photo/1 )
And Russian propaganda sh*t holes are already barraging messages saying the Ukrainian military liberating the Kharkiv Oblast and coming up to the Russian border means nothing and will not help Ukraine.
Of course, of course.
16margd
Alexander Khrebet/Олександр Хребет @AlexKhrebet | 5:21 AM · May 6, 2022:
@ZN_UA's international desk editor Редактор видання Дзеркало тижня #Ukraine and post-Soviet area
#Ukraine's General Staff reported that #Russia has lost another ship. The MP from Odesa and local media outlets claim it is the Russian Navy patrol ship Admiral Makarov, an Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate.
Needs to be confirmed.
Photo of ship ( https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1522506742789287936/photo/1 )
___________________________________________________
OSINTdefender @sentdefender | 5:33 AM · May 6, 2022:
Open Source Intelligence Monitor currently focused on Eastern Europe and the ongoing Crisis in Ukraine, Geospatial Analyst.
It’s seeming more and more likely that the Claims about the Russian Frigate Admiral Makarov being stuck by Ukrainian Anti-Ship Missiles off the Coast of Odessa is True, multiple Rescue Ships and Aircraft are reportedly in the Area with U.S Surveillance Drones keeping eyes on it.
Map ( https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1522509777053618176/photo/1 )
___________________________________________________
Poo In Who Yee Low (Путин Х*йло) @MotikaParva | 8:42 AM · May 6, 2022
🇺🇦
Turkish Search and Rescue aircraft flying this way only adds to the evidence.
Map ( https://twitter.com/wipljw/status/1522556266811428865/photo/1 )
@ZN_UA's international desk editor Редактор видання Дзеркало тижня #Ukraine and post-Soviet area
#Ukraine's General Staff reported that #Russia has lost another ship. The MP from Odesa and local media outlets claim it is the Russian Navy patrol ship Admiral Makarov, an Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate.
Needs to be confirmed.
Photo of ship ( https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1522506742789287936/photo/1 )
___________________________________________________
OSINTdefender @sentdefender | 5:33 AM · May 6, 2022:
Open Source Intelligence Monitor currently focused on Eastern Europe and the ongoing Crisis in Ukraine, Geospatial Analyst.
It’s seeming more and more likely that the Claims about the Russian Frigate Admiral Makarov being stuck by Ukrainian Anti-Ship Missiles off the Coast of Odessa is True, multiple Rescue Ships and Aircraft are reportedly in the Area with U.S Surveillance Drones keeping eyes on it.
Map ( https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1522509777053618176/photo/1 )
___________________________________________________
Poo In Who Yee Low (Путин Х*йло) @MotikaParva | 8:42 AM · May 6, 2022
🇺🇦
Turkish Search and Rescue aircraft flying this way only adds to the evidence.
Map ( https://twitter.com/wipljw/status/1522556266811428865/photo/1 )
17margd
The War Is Getting More Dangerous for America, and Biden Knows It
Thomas L. Friedman | May 6, 2022
...(Biden) called the director of national intelligence, the director of the C.I.A. and the secretary of defense to make clear in the strongest and most colorful language that...loose talk is reckless and has got to stop immediately — before we end up in an unintended war with Russia.
... when American officials start to brag in public about playing a role in killing Russian generals and sinking the Russian flagship, killing many sailors, we could be creating an opening for Putin to respond in ways that could dangerously widen this conflict — and drag the U.S. in deeper than it wants to be.
...Putin’s behavior is not as predictable as it has been in the past. And Putin is running out of options for...face-saving
...U.S. officials are quite concerned what Putin might do or announce at the Victory Day celebration in Moscow on Monday...
...not only the Russians...would like to involve us more deeply...the Biden team...want(s) to do everything possible to make sure (President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine) wins this war (restore its sovereignty and beat the Russians back) but doing so in a way that still keeps some distance between us and Ukraine’s leadership. That’s so Kyiv is not calling the shots and so we’ll not be embarrassed by messy Ukrainian politics in the war’s aftermath...not let Ukraine turn itself into an American protectorate on the border of Russia.
Biden...(has) a pretty good sense of where U.S. interests stop and start...one bright spot in the effort to avoid a wider war is the administration’s success at keeping China from providing military aid to Russia...microchips...
We need to stick as tightly as possible to our original limited and clearly defined aim of helping Ukraine expel Russian forces as much as possible or negotiate for their withdrawal whenever Ukraine’s leaders feel the time is right.
But we are dealing with some incredibly unstable elements, particularly a politically wounded Putin. Boasting about killing his generals and sinking his ships, or falling in love with Ukraine in ways that will get us enmeshed there forever, is the height of folly.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/06/opinion/biden-ukraine-leaks.html
Thomas L. Friedman | May 6, 2022
...(Biden) called the director of national intelligence, the director of the C.I.A. and the secretary of defense to make clear in the strongest and most colorful language that...loose talk is reckless and has got to stop immediately — before we end up in an unintended war with Russia.
... when American officials start to brag in public about playing a role in killing Russian generals and sinking the Russian flagship, killing many sailors, we could be creating an opening for Putin to respond in ways that could dangerously widen this conflict — and drag the U.S. in deeper than it wants to be.
...Putin’s behavior is not as predictable as it has been in the past. And Putin is running out of options for...face-saving
...U.S. officials are quite concerned what Putin might do or announce at the Victory Day celebration in Moscow on Monday...
...not only the Russians...would like to involve us more deeply...the Biden team...want(s) to do everything possible to make sure (President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine) wins this war (restore its sovereignty and beat the Russians back) but doing so in a way that still keeps some distance between us and Ukraine’s leadership. That’s so Kyiv is not calling the shots and so we’ll not be embarrassed by messy Ukrainian politics in the war’s aftermath...not let Ukraine turn itself into an American protectorate on the border of Russia.
Biden...(has) a pretty good sense of where U.S. interests stop and start...one bright spot in the effort to avoid a wider war is the administration’s success at keeping China from providing military aid to Russia...microchips...
We need to stick as tightly as possible to our original limited and clearly defined aim of helping Ukraine expel Russian forces as much as possible or negotiate for their withdrawal whenever Ukraine’s leaders feel the time is right.
But we are dealing with some incredibly unstable elements, particularly a politically wounded Putin. Boasting about killing his generals and sinking his ships, or falling in love with Ukraine in ways that will get us enmeshed there forever, is the height of folly.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/06/opinion/biden-ukraine-leaks.html
18margd
Olga Tokariuk @olgatokariuk | 4:44 AM · May 7, 2022:
independent journalist
Day 73 of Ukraine resistance. Russians destroyed a museum to the great Ukrainian philosopher Skovoroda* near Kharkiv. They are erasing Ukrainian culture, replacing Ukrainian signs with Russian in occupied territory, banning 🇺🇦books and language. Just as they did for centuries
Russian army destroys Skovoroda's museum, while Russian liberals print his quotes on shirts 🤦🏻♀️ That's all you need to know about Russians' attitude to Ukrainian culture: they either destroy it or appropriate and steal it
Quote Tweet
zhenya oliinyk @zhenya_oliinyk · 4h
This is some merch by Ksenia Sobchak, Russian liberal and opposing politician. It says, in Russian: "The world tried to catch me but couldn't". It's Skovoroda's most famous quote, however, he's not credited anywhere.
Photo of hoodie ( https://twitter.com/zhenya_oliinyk/status/1522856463999324160/photo/1 )
And this is what's left of Skovoroda museum in Skovorodynivka near Kharkiv where the philosopher is buried. It's Russians' job. They steal and what they can't steal they destroy.
Photo of ruins ( https://twitter.com/zhenya_oliinyk/status/1522856477450555392/photo/1 )
* Gregory Skovoroda, also Hryhoriy Skovoroda, or Grigory Skovoroda was a philosopher of Ukrainian Cossack origin who lived and worked in the Russian Empire. He was also a poet, teacher and composer of liturgical music. (Wikipedia)
independent journalist
Day 73 of Ukraine resistance. Russians destroyed a museum to the great Ukrainian philosopher Skovoroda* near Kharkiv. They are erasing Ukrainian culture, replacing Ukrainian signs with Russian in occupied territory, banning 🇺🇦books and language. Just as they did for centuries
Russian army destroys Skovoroda's museum, while Russian liberals print his quotes on shirts 🤦🏻♀️ That's all you need to know about Russians' attitude to Ukrainian culture: they either destroy it or appropriate and steal it
Quote Tweet
zhenya oliinyk @zhenya_oliinyk · 4h
This is some merch by Ksenia Sobchak, Russian liberal and opposing politician. It says, in Russian: "The world tried to catch me but couldn't". It's Skovoroda's most famous quote, however, he's not credited anywhere.
Photo of hoodie ( https://twitter.com/zhenya_oliinyk/status/1522856463999324160/photo/1 )
And this is what's left of Skovoroda museum in Skovorodynivka near Kharkiv where the philosopher is buried. It's Russians' job. They steal and what they can't steal they destroy.
Photo of ruins ( https://twitter.com/zhenya_oliinyk/status/1522856477450555392/photo/1 )
* Gregory Skovoroda, also Hryhoriy Skovoroda, or Grigory Skovoroda was a philosopher of Ukrainian Cossack origin who lived and worked in the Russian Empire. He was also a poet, teacher and composer of liturgical music. (Wikipedia)
19margd
Now Putin deoxygenates or poisons Mariupol steelwork tunnels somehow--in time to desecrate memory of WW2 soldiers' on May 9 (Victory Day)?
Olga Tokariuk @olgatokariuk | 12:19 PM · May 7, 2022:
INDEPENDENT JOURNALIST
All women, children and elderly people have been evacuated from the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol: Iryna Vereshchuk, Ukraine's deputy prime minister
However, wounded soldiers, who are suffering in absence of basic drugs such as antibiotics, still remain at the Azovstal plant, along with other Ukrainian defenders. Their lives shouldn't be sacrificed, they must be rescued. It's them who've been holding Mariupol for 73 days
Olga Tokariuk @olgatokariuk | 12:19 PM · May 7, 2022:
INDEPENDENT JOURNALIST
All women, children and elderly people have been evacuated from the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol: Iryna Vereshchuk, Ukraine's deputy prime minister
However, wounded soldiers, who are suffering in absence of basic drugs such as antibiotics, still remain at the Azovstal plant, along with other Ukrainian defenders. Their lives shouldn't be sacrificed, they must be rescued. It's them who've been holding Mariupol for 73 days
20margd
As war grinds on, the definition of victory remains murky
Karen DeYoung, Dan Lamothe and Ashley Parker | may 7, 2022
...As the war continues, especially if it drags into next winter, some European governments may face shortages of heating fuel in addition to gas and consumer goods. For Biden, facing his own economic difficulties, the perception of Russia as having lost, or at least losing, could make a difference during midterm elections in November — as could the perception that his administration “lost” Ukraine.
...“We hope that, at the end of this, that Ukraine will be a … sovereign state with a functioning government that can protect its territory,” (Defense Secretary) Austin told the Senate Appropriations Committee...
...Ukrainians...goal, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said repeatedly, is restoration of full territorial integrity, pushing the Russians back from recently claimed territory in the south and east, as well as ultimately from Crimea, annexed by Moscow in 2014, and parts of the eastern Donbas region that was grabbed by Russia-backed Ukrainian separatists at the same time.
Serious negotiations with Russia would only begin when Moscow pulls its troops back, or they are pushed from territory occupied since the invasion began Feb. 24. He also listed the return of refugees, Ukraine’s admission to the European Union, and the prosecution of Russian military leaders for war crimes as elements of any postwar landscape.
...The current phase of the fight is likely to be much harder and more protracted...U.S. and allied staying power will be crucial. One of the sustaining challenges...is maintaining public unity and support among and inside the countries backing Ukraine...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/05/07/ukraine-russia-war-v...
Karen DeYoung, Dan Lamothe and Ashley Parker | may 7, 2022
...As the war continues, especially if it drags into next winter, some European governments may face shortages of heating fuel in addition to gas and consumer goods. For Biden, facing his own economic difficulties, the perception of Russia as having lost, or at least losing, could make a difference during midterm elections in November — as could the perception that his administration “lost” Ukraine.
...“We hope that, at the end of this, that Ukraine will be a … sovereign state with a functioning government that can protect its territory,” (Defense Secretary) Austin told the Senate Appropriations Committee...
...Ukrainians...goal, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said repeatedly, is restoration of full territorial integrity, pushing the Russians back from recently claimed territory in the south and east, as well as ultimately from Crimea, annexed by Moscow in 2014, and parts of the eastern Donbas region that was grabbed by Russia-backed Ukrainian separatists at the same time.
Serious negotiations with Russia would only begin when Moscow pulls its troops back, or they are pushed from territory occupied since the invasion began Feb. 24. He also listed the return of refugees, Ukraine’s admission to the European Union, and the prosecution of Russian military leaders for war crimes as elements of any postwar landscape.
...The current phase of the fight is likely to be much harder and more protracted...U.S. and allied staying power will be crucial. One of the sustaining challenges...is maintaining public unity and support among and inside the countries backing Ukraine...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/05/07/ukraine-russia-war-v...
21Molly3028
https://www.mediaite.com/entertainment/watch-u2s-bono-the-edge-hold-surprise-con...
WATCH: U2’s Bono, The Edge Hold Surprise Concert in Ukrainian Subway Station
Rock icons Bono and The Edge performed in Kyiv, announcing that they were in the capital city by the invitation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
***
Now we need concerts for childbearing-aged women in the USA, too!
WATCH: U2’s Bono, The Edge Hold Surprise Concert in Ukrainian Subway Station
Rock icons Bono and The Edge performed in Kyiv, announcing that they were in the capital city by the invitation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
***
Now we need concerts for childbearing-aged women in the USA, too!
22margd
UA soldiers at Mariupol should hope that RU would only execute them and nothing more... :(
Olga Tokariuk @olgatokariuk | 2:09 PM · May 7, 2022:
Independent journalist
Ukrainian defenders at Azovstal in Mariupol have a right to be evacuated. They are appealing to international organizations or a third country (like Turkey) to launch an 'extraction' procedure. They know they cannot surrender to Russians because they would be executed
2:09 PM · May 7, 2022
Olga Tokariuk @olgatokariuk | 2:09 PM · May 7, 2022:
Independent journalist
Ukrainian defenders at Azovstal in Mariupol have a right to be evacuated. They are appealing to international organizations or a third country (like Turkey) to launch an 'extraction' procedure. They know they cannot surrender to Russians because they would be executed
2:09 PM · May 7, 2022
23margd
Participants of the military parade in #Yekaterinburg wear the "Z" symbol.
0:13 ( https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1523535835957583872 )
Source: Саша Зубковский / It's My City.
- NEXTA @nexta_tv | 1:30 AM · May 9, 2022
--------------------------------------------------
Brittlestar @brittlestar | 9:05 AM · May 9, 2022:
Jfc… it’s a bit on the nose. Isn’t it?
0:13 ( https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1523535835957583872 )
Source: Саша Зубковский / It's My City.
- NEXTA @nexta_tv | 1:30 AM · May 9, 2022
--------------------------------------------------
Brittlestar @brittlestar | 9:05 AM · May 9, 2022:
Jfc… it’s a bit on the nose. Isn’t it?
24margd
Brave man...
Hanna Liubakova @HannaLiubakova | 8:57 AM · May 9, 2022:
#Russia In Saint Petersburg, a man with an anti-war banner came to the official Victory Parade.
A spoiler: he was detained.
0:38 ( https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1523648439594078209 )
Hanna Liubakova @HannaLiubakova | 8:57 AM · May 9, 2022:
#Russia In Saint Petersburg, a man with an anti-war banner came to the official Victory Parade.
A spoiler: he was detained.
0:38 ( https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1523648439594078209 )
25margd
Julia Ioffe (Puck News) @juliaioffe | 11:27 PM · May 8, 2022:
https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1523504787764961284
Russian political talk show, wondering why people in Europe and the former Soviet republics like Georgia (which Russia invaded and took 20% of its territory) are so anti-Russian!
Photo ( https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1523504787764961284/photo/1 )
https://1tv.ru/-/jwslk
Look at how differently Europeans spoke to Russians in the 1930s and after 1945, says one guest. When Russia wins, he says, "even these types who don't love us will sit in the background and be quiet."
Totally and completely chill.
https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1523504787764961284
Russian political talk show, wondering why people in Europe and the former Soviet republics like Georgia (which Russia invaded and took 20% of its territory) are so anti-Russian!
Photo ( https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1523504787764961284/photo/1 )
https://1tv.ru/-/jwslk
Look at how differently Europeans spoke to Russians in the 1930s and after 1945, says one guest. When Russia wins, he says, "even these types who don't love us will sit in the background and be quiet."
Totally and completely chill.
26margd
Dreadful.
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 7:19 AM · May 10, 2022:
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1524031902616850432
⚡️ 'It's not a morgue, it's a dump,' Russian soldier says in intercepted phone call.
Ukraine's Security Service published a recording of an intercepted phone call from a soldier fighting for Russians to his wife.
----------------------------------------------------------
Dmitri 🇺🇦 @mdmitri91 | 5:17 AM · May 10, 2022
I translate all kinds of stuff from Russian invasion of Ukraine | Also Community Manager @TopDrivesGame | 🇪🇪 Estonian in the UK...
To hide its losses in the war with Ukraine, Russia puts the killed soldiers on the list of 'missing in action'.
Their bodies are stored in makeshift dumps, where there are so many 200's that the mountains of corpses reach two meters in height.
Translated text ( https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1523955302575620096/photo/1 )
----------------------------------------------------------------
Quote Tweet
СБ України @ServiceSsu · 9h
Щоб приховати свої втрати на війні в Україні, росія записує убитих військових до списку «безвісти зниклих»
Їхні тіла складують на імпровізованих звалищах, де гори трупів досягають двох метрів заввишки.
Про це свідчать перехоплені СБУ розмови окупантів ⬇️
Google translate
To hide its losses in the war in Ukraine, Russia puts the killed soldiers on the list of "missing"
Their bodies are stored in makeshift dumps, where the mountains of corpses reach two meters in height.
This is evidenced by the intercepted SBU conversations of the occupiers ⬇️
2:15 RU audio ( https://twitter.com/ServiceSsu/status/1523952073158668288 )
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 7:19 AM · May 10, 2022:
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1524031902616850432
⚡️ 'It's not a morgue, it's a dump,' Russian soldier says in intercepted phone call.
Ukraine's Security Service published a recording of an intercepted phone call from a soldier fighting for Russians to his wife.
----------------------------------------------------------
Dmitri 🇺🇦 @mdmitri91 | 5:17 AM · May 10, 2022
I translate all kinds of stuff from Russian invasion of Ukraine | Also Community Manager @TopDrivesGame | 🇪🇪 Estonian in the UK...
To hide its losses in the war with Ukraine, Russia puts the killed soldiers on the list of 'missing in action'.
Their bodies are stored in makeshift dumps, where there are so many 200's that the mountains of corpses reach two meters in height.
Translated text ( https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1523955302575620096/photo/1 )
----------------------------------------------------------------
Quote Tweet
СБ України @ServiceSsu · 9h
Щоб приховати свої втрати на війні в Україні, росія записує убитих військових до списку «безвісти зниклих»
Їхні тіла складують на імпровізованих звалищах, де гори трупів досягають двох метрів заввишки.
Про це свідчать перехоплені СБУ розмови окупантів ⬇️
Google translate
To hide its losses in the war in Ukraine, Russia puts the killed soldiers on the list of "missing"
Their bodies are stored in makeshift dumps, where the mountains of corpses reach two meters in height.
This is evidenced by the intercepted SBU conversations of the occupiers ⬇️
2:15 RU audio ( https://twitter.com/ServiceSsu/status/1523952073158668288 )
27margd
Russia pummels vital port of Odesa, targeting supply lines
ELENA BECATOROS and JON GAMBRELL 10 May 2022
...Ukraine said Russian forces fired seven missiles Monday at Odesa, hitting a shopping center and a warehouse in the country’s largest port. One person was killed and five wounded, the military said.
Images showed a burning building and debris — including a tennis shoe — in a heap of destruction in the city on the Black Sea. Mayor Gennady Trukhanov later visited the warehouse and said it “had nothing in common with military infrastructure or military objects.”
Ukraine alleged at least some of the munitions used dated to the Soviet era, making them unreliable in targeting. Ukrainian, British and U.S. officials say Russia is rapidly using up its stock of precision weapons, raising the risk of more imprecise rockets being used as the conflict grinds on.
Since President Vladimir Putin’s forces failed to take Kyiv early in the war, his focus has shifted to the eastern industrial heartland of the Donbas — but one general has suggested Moscow’s aims also include cutting cutting Ukraine’s maritime access to both the Black and Azov seas.
That would also give it a swath of territory linking Russia to both the Crimean Peninsula, which it seized in 2014, and Transnistria, a pro-Moscow region of Moldova.
Even if it falls short of severing Ukraine from the coast — and it appears to lack the forces to do so — continuing missile strikes on Odesa reflect the city’s strategic importance. The Russian military has repeatedly targeted its airport and claimed it destroyed several batches of Western weapons.
Odesa is also a major gateway for grain shipments, and its blockade by Russia already threatens global food supplies. Beyond that, the city is a cultural jewel, dear to Ukrainians and Russians alike, and targeting it carries symbolic significance as well...
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-business-nato-moscow-c8e00f7bbc4...
ELENA BECATOROS and JON GAMBRELL 10 May 2022
...Ukraine said Russian forces fired seven missiles Monday at Odesa, hitting a shopping center and a warehouse in the country’s largest port. One person was killed and five wounded, the military said.
Images showed a burning building and debris — including a tennis shoe — in a heap of destruction in the city on the Black Sea. Mayor Gennady Trukhanov later visited the warehouse and said it “had nothing in common with military infrastructure or military objects.”
Ukraine alleged at least some of the munitions used dated to the Soviet era, making them unreliable in targeting. Ukrainian, British and U.S. officials say Russia is rapidly using up its stock of precision weapons, raising the risk of more imprecise rockets being used as the conflict grinds on.
Since President Vladimir Putin’s forces failed to take Kyiv early in the war, his focus has shifted to the eastern industrial heartland of the Donbas — but one general has suggested Moscow’s aims also include cutting cutting Ukraine’s maritime access to both the Black and Azov seas.
That would also give it a swath of territory linking Russia to both the Crimean Peninsula, which it seized in 2014, and Transnistria, a pro-Moscow region of Moldova.
Even if it falls short of severing Ukraine from the coast — and it appears to lack the forces to do so — continuing missile strikes on Odesa reflect the city’s strategic importance. The Russian military has repeatedly targeted its airport and claimed it destroyed several batches of Western weapons.
Odesa is also a major gateway for grain shipments, and its blockade by Russia already threatens global food supplies. Beyond that, the city is a cultural jewel, dear to Ukrainians and Russians alike, and targeting it carries symbolic significance as well...
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-business-nato-moscow-c8e00f7bbc4...
28margd
Lukashenko might be more of a threat to NATO than Putin--in a Donald Trump kinda way.
( 1:20 https://twitter.com/jayeeandtee/status/1524076266487525376 )
Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 1:06 PM · May 10, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org Bylines @ForeignPolicy
, WaPo etc 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1524073327911972865
Alexander Lukashenko warns that Belarus's army is combat ready and can inflict "unacceptable damage" on NATO countries
Lukashenko says this is a deterrence statement and not a sign of Belarus's aggression against NATO, which he admits would not succeed
But it follows warnings about a security threat from Poland and the Baltic States, as well as concerns in Ukraine that Belarus will enter the war
_________________________________________________
Belarus to deploy special forces to southern border near Ukraine
Tue, May 10, 2022
(Reuters) - Belarus will deploy special operations troops in three areas near its southern border with Ukraine, the armed forces said on Tuesday as President Alexander Lukashenko talked up the role of Russian-made missiles in boosting the country's defences.
..."The United States and its allies continue to build up their military presence on the state borders of the Republic of Belarus," (Poland, Lithuania and Latvia) Chief of General Staff Viktor Gulevich said. "The established grouping has more than doubled in the past six months in quantity and quality."
Belarus is also deploying air defence, artillery and missile units for drills in the west, Gulevich said.
Lukashenko said Moscow had agreed to help Minsk produce missiles similar to the Iskander, which Russia has used in Ukraine, and that he wanted Belarus to continue using Russian-made S-400 and S-300 surface-to-air missile systems.
"We are realists, we understand that we will not be able to defeat NATO. But we can cause damage, especially to those territories from which we will be attacked," he said.
https://news.yahoo.com/russia-help-ally-belarus-create-120303935.html
( 1:20 https://twitter.com/jayeeandtee/status/1524076266487525376 )
Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 1:06 PM · May 10, 2022:
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations @UniofOxford Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org Bylines @ForeignPolicy
, WaPo etc 3 forthcoming books HurstPublishers
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1524073327911972865
Alexander Lukashenko warns that Belarus's army is combat ready and can inflict "unacceptable damage" on NATO countries
Lukashenko says this is a deterrence statement and not a sign of Belarus's aggression against NATO, which he admits would not succeed
But it follows warnings about a security threat from Poland and the Baltic States, as well as concerns in Ukraine that Belarus will enter the war
_________________________________________________
Belarus to deploy special forces to southern border near Ukraine
Tue, May 10, 2022
(Reuters) - Belarus will deploy special operations troops in three areas near its southern border with Ukraine, the armed forces said on Tuesday as President Alexander Lukashenko talked up the role of Russian-made missiles in boosting the country's defences.
..."The United States and its allies continue to build up their military presence on the state borders of the Republic of Belarus," (Poland, Lithuania and Latvia) Chief of General Staff Viktor Gulevich said. "The established grouping has more than doubled in the past six months in quantity and quality."
Belarus is also deploying air defence, artillery and missile units for drills in the west, Gulevich said.
Lukashenko said Moscow had agreed to help Minsk produce missiles similar to the Iskander, which Russia has used in Ukraine, and that he wanted Belarus to continue using Russian-made S-400 and S-300 surface-to-air missile systems.
"We are realists, we understand that we will not be able to defeat NATO. But we can cause damage, especially to those territories from which we will be attacked," he said.
https://news.yahoo.com/russia-help-ally-belarus-create-120303935.html
29margd
NowThis @nowthisnews | 1:33 AM · May 10, 2022:
'Any evil always ends the same. It ends' — President Zelenskyy recorded a video message to the people of Ukraine in honor of May 9th's Victory Day, a holiday commemorating the end of WWII observed in Russia, Ukraine, and several other former Soviet nations
1:59 ( https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1523898879850082304 )
'Any evil always ends the same. It ends' — President Zelenskyy recorded a video message to the people of Ukraine in honor of May 9th's Victory Day, a holiday commemorating the end of WWII observed in Russia, Ukraine, and several other former Soviet nations
1:59 ( https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1523898879850082304 )
30margd
Navalny's 16 categories of Putin accomplices/ war enablers listed in slide 5 ( https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/status/1524126041241001989/photo/1 )
Leonid Volkov @leonidvolkov | 4:35 PM · May 10, 2022:
Начальник штаба Алексея Навального; основатель Общества Защиты Интернета // Chief of staff for Alexey Navalny // https://donate.fbk.world // https://ozi-ru.org
The Anti-Corruption Foundation @ACF_int founded by Alexey Navalny @navalny has recently published a list of 6000 Putin’s accomplices, Russian war enablers.
We have prepared a few slides which explain better who they are… (1/7)
slide ( https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/status/1524125936651747328/photo/1 )
… and why sanctioning them will be very painful for Putin and will help to stop the war.
We are targeting mid-level officials mostly; they are not as visible as Putin’s inner circle, but they are crucial for the regime. It can’t run without them. (2/7)
slide ( https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/status/1524125950740471810/photo/1 )
One single most important fact about them is that they are much younger than Putin and his friends. Their average age is about 45. So they have a “live after Putin”.
Well, maybe. Depending on the choice they’ll make right now. (3/7)
slide ( https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/status/1524125983502127109/photo/1 )
We are going public with this list to present them with a last chance to find a way out. To jump Putin’s ship.
Many of them are not yet war criminals — but they have to stop serving the regime right now. (4/7)
slide ( https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/status/1524125998870151169/photo/1 )
We presented our list in Strasbourg last week; this week we’ll do it in Brussels and next week in Washington. We feel and appreciate a lot of positive feedback for it (5/7)
slide ( https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/status/1524126041241001989/photo/1 )
Please do endorse our work by sharing this thread and these slides. We need to isolate Putin, to make him helpless.
This list of 6000 names is somewhat extraordinary, but so it this war. Every possible tool should be used to stop it. (6/7)
slide ( https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/status/1524126067090464768/photo/1 )
The full list of war enablers with the latest updates, as well as more on the Anti-Corruption Foundation and its project: https://acf.international
Different ways to make a donation: https://acf.international/#donate
slide ( https://acf.international/ )
Leonid Volkov @leonidvolkov | 4:35 PM · May 10, 2022:
Начальник штаба Алексея Навального; основатель Общества Защиты Интернета // Chief of staff for Alexey Navalny // https://donate.fbk.world // https://ozi-ru.org
The Anti-Corruption Foundation @ACF_int founded by Alexey Navalny @navalny has recently published a list of 6000 Putin’s accomplices, Russian war enablers.
We have prepared a few slides which explain better who they are… (1/7)
slide ( https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/status/1524125936651747328/photo/1 )
… and why sanctioning them will be very painful for Putin and will help to stop the war.
We are targeting mid-level officials mostly; they are not as visible as Putin’s inner circle, but they are crucial for the regime. It can’t run without them. (2/7)
slide ( https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/status/1524125950740471810/photo/1 )
One single most important fact about them is that they are much younger than Putin and his friends. Their average age is about 45. So they have a “live after Putin”.
Well, maybe. Depending on the choice they’ll make right now. (3/7)
slide ( https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/status/1524125983502127109/photo/1 )
We are going public with this list to present them with a last chance to find a way out. To jump Putin’s ship.
Many of them are not yet war criminals — but they have to stop serving the regime right now. (4/7)
slide ( https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/status/1524125998870151169/photo/1 )
We presented our list in Strasbourg last week; this week we’ll do it in Brussels and next week in Washington. We feel and appreciate a lot of positive feedback for it (5/7)
slide ( https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/status/1524126041241001989/photo/1 )
Please do endorse our work by sharing this thread and these slides. We need to isolate Putin, to make him helpless.
This list of 6000 names is somewhat extraordinary, but so it this war. Every possible tool should be used to stop it. (6/7)
slide ( https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/status/1524126067090464768/photo/1 )
The full list of war enablers with the latest updates, as well as more on the Anti-Corruption Foundation and its project: https://acf.international
Different ways to make a donation: https://acf.international/#donate
slide ( https://acf.international/ )
31margd
Andrew deGrandpré @adegrandpre | 8:37 PM · May 10, 2022:
Deputy national security editor @washingtonpost | Past: Editor/Pentagon chief @MilitaryTimes
Inbox --> The Pentagon just distributed this rundown of U.S. military assistance provided to Ukraine:
List ( https://twitter.com/adegrandpre/status/1524186797625982976/photo/1 )
Deputy national security editor @washingtonpost | Past: Editor/Pentagon chief @MilitaryTimes
Inbox --> The Pentagon just distributed this rundown of U.S. military assistance provided to Ukraine:
List ( https://twitter.com/adegrandpre/status/1524186797625982976/photo/1 )
32Molly3028
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/tucker-carlson-torches-a-slew-of-republicans-by-name...
Tucker Carlson Torches a Slew of Republicans by Name for Supporting Ukraine Aid, Says Lindsey Graham Is ‘Afraid’ to Come on His Show
***
Tucker Carlson has become an aficionado of the con-man techniques used by Trump. Trump scr*ws with the minds of his clueless voters, and Carlson scr*ws with the minds of his clueless viewers in the exact same way ~ the "they don't care about you, only I care about you" crap is a mainstay.
Tucker Carlson Torches a Slew of Republicans by Name for Supporting Ukraine Aid, Says Lindsey Graham Is ‘Afraid’ to Come on His Show
***
Tucker Carlson has become an aficionado of the con-man techniques used by Trump. Trump scr*ws with the minds of his clueless voters, and Carlson scr*ws with the minds of his clueless viewers in the exact same way ~ the "they don't care about you, only I care about you" crap is a mainstay.
33margd
Dmitri 🇺🇦 @mdmitri91 | 5:07 PM · May 11, 2022:
I translate all kinds of stuff from Russian invasion of Ukraine | Also Community Manager @TopDrivesGame | 🇪🇪 Estonian in the UK...
Summary for 11 May of livestream with Aleksey Arestovych (Oleksiy Arestovych is a Ukrainian presidential adviser, blogger, actor, political and military columnist. Arestovych is an organizer of psychological seminars and trainings and a charity fund for psychological support to the military (wikipedia):
1. Great reshuffle in Russia’s general staff. Gerasimov (Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces) is de-facto suspended from his responsibilities. First Tank Army commander replaced. Russia’s own evaluation of its efforts is clear.
43:05, untranslated ( https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1524496426327289860 )
youtube.com
День семьдесят седьмой. Беседа с Alexey Arestovych Алексей Арестович
#Фейгин #ФейгинLIVE День семьдесят седьмой. Беседа с Алексеем Арестовичем (Киев).Подписка на PATREON https://www.patreon.com/feygin_liveЗачем нужна подписка ...
2. Internal conflicts within occupied Kherson Oblast between ‘local administration’ and FSB/GRU - the claim of readiness to join Russia today was necessary to look ‘good’ for Moscow.
3. Arestovych believes that Russia faced with reality is starting to bring political goals in accordance with military capabilities, unlike before. Backtracking has begun and Putin’s mild 9 May speech is an indication of it.
4. China’s position to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine (including Donbas and Crimea) is a huge blow for Russia - this may mean China believes Ukraine could take back both Donbas and Crimea. (margd: hadn't heard this. will try to verify)
5. Kharkiv direction - Ukrainian forces approaching and in some places reaching border in Russia - however, this means little - the war is already cross-border with 10 Russian BTGs in Belgorod Oblast and Russian shelling Ukraine from there.
6. An option was offered to Russia to exchange Mariupol survivors for Russian captives. Arestovych receiving death threats from Azov fighters’ ‘wives’ - but these are most likely fakes.
7. US lend-lease and a $40 billion aid package both arriving (and quite early), Russia is likely facing a very objective defeat with this in mind which explains their re-alignment of military goals with objective reality.
8. There will be no Minsk-3. Claims by Macron regarding Ukraine’s slowdown in admittance to EU may display an attempt by Russia to find a way out behind the scenes.
I translate all kinds of stuff from Russian invasion of Ukraine | Also Community Manager @TopDrivesGame | 🇪🇪 Estonian in the UK...
Summary for 11 May of livestream with Aleksey Arestovych (Oleksiy Arestovych is a Ukrainian presidential adviser, blogger, actor, political and military columnist. Arestovych is an organizer of psychological seminars and trainings and a charity fund for psychological support to the military (wikipedia):
1. Great reshuffle in Russia’s general staff. Gerasimov (Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces) is de-facto suspended from his responsibilities. First Tank Army commander replaced. Russia’s own evaluation of its efforts is clear.
43:05, untranslated ( https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1524496426327289860 )
youtube.com
День семьдесят седьмой. Беседа с Alexey Arestovych Алексей Арестович
#Фейгин #ФейгинLIVE День семьдесят седьмой. Беседа с Алексеем Арестовичем (Киев).Подписка на PATREON https://www.patreon.com/feygin_liveЗачем нужна подписка ...
2. Internal conflicts within occupied Kherson Oblast between ‘local administration’ and FSB/GRU - the claim of readiness to join Russia today was necessary to look ‘good’ for Moscow.
3. Arestovych believes that Russia faced with reality is starting to bring political goals in accordance with military capabilities, unlike before. Backtracking has begun and Putin’s mild 9 May speech is an indication of it.
4. China’s position to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine (including Donbas and Crimea) is a huge blow for Russia - this may mean China believes Ukraine could take back both Donbas and Crimea. (margd: hadn't heard this. will try to verify)
5. Kharkiv direction - Ukrainian forces approaching and in some places reaching border in Russia - however, this means little - the war is already cross-border with 10 Russian BTGs in Belgorod Oblast and Russian shelling Ukraine from there.
6. An option was offered to Russia to exchange Mariupol survivors for Russian captives. Arestovych receiving death threats from Azov fighters’ ‘wives’ - but these are most likely fakes.
7. US lend-lease and a $40 billion aid package both arriving (and quite early), Russia is likely facing a very objective defeat with this in mind which explains their re-alignment of military goals with objective reality.
8. There will be no Minsk-3. Claims by Macron regarding Ukraine’s slowdown in admittance to EU may display an attempt by Russia to find a way out behind the scenes.
34margd
>33 margd: 4. China’s position to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine (including Donbas and Crimea) is a huge blow for Russia - this may mean China believes Ukraine could take back both Donbas and Crimea. (margd: hadn't heard this. will try to verify)
A Former Chinese Ambassador’s Trenchant Comments on Ukraine War Attract Notice
Career diplomat Gao Yusheng spoke openly about how disastrous the war has been for Russia, but his comments have since been quietly deleted.
Lizzi C. Lee | May 12, 2022
Gao Yusheng, a 75-year-old career diplomat, delivered a scathing indictment of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war during an internal webinar hosted by the government-affiliated China International Finance 30 Forum and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
...Gao chastised Putin for relying on fabricated history in his bid to restore Russia’s alleged glory. He faulted the Putin regime for “considering the former Soviet Union as its exclusive sphere of influence” and “violating the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of other former Soviet states,” which resulted in “the greatest threat to peace, security, and stability in Eurasia.”
...“Gao is one of the handful of senior Chinese diplomats with extensive real expertise. Unfortunately, they are required to carefully tread the official line when in office, and they can only voice their views more candidly after retirement,” said Pin Ho, founder and CEO of the New-York based Mirror Media Group.
“Ambassador Gao’s words reflect the Ukrainian viewpoint. It’s a crucial counterweight against the excessively pro-Russian stance from state media outlets and the current Chinese Foreign Ministry. Gao’s remark should be a key reference point as we observe China’s evolving line of messaging on the Russo-Ukrainian war,” according to Ho.
There are no signs that Beijing is changing its stance on the war.
...Chinese experts caution against reading too much into Beijing’s occasional softening of its public narrative.
While international pressure (trade $) motivates Beijing to fine-tune its narrow public narrative to slightly distance itself from the Russian narrative, it doesn’t change the fact that the majority of Chinese foreign policy and security experts are genuinely sympathetic to the Russian perspectives, according to Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment’s Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing.
As China braces itself for a world in greater chaos, Xi Jinping is increasingly focused on “filling the gap to win the hearts and minds of the Global South,” as evidenced by his Global Security Initiative which aims to “uphold the idea of indivisible security,” according to Zhao.
https://thediplomat.com/2022/05/a-former-chinese-ambassadors-trenchant-comments-...
A Former Chinese Ambassador’s Trenchant Comments on Ukraine War Attract Notice
Career diplomat Gao Yusheng spoke openly about how disastrous the war has been for Russia, but his comments have since been quietly deleted.
Lizzi C. Lee | May 12, 2022
Gao Yusheng, a 75-year-old career diplomat, delivered a scathing indictment of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war during an internal webinar hosted by the government-affiliated China International Finance 30 Forum and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
...Gao chastised Putin for relying on fabricated history in his bid to restore Russia’s alleged glory. He faulted the Putin regime for “considering the former Soviet Union as its exclusive sphere of influence” and “violating the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of other former Soviet states,” which resulted in “the greatest threat to peace, security, and stability in Eurasia.”
...“Gao is one of the handful of senior Chinese diplomats with extensive real expertise. Unfortunately, they are required to carefully tread the official line when in office, and they can only voice their views more candidly after retirement,” said Pin Ho, founder and CEO of the New-York based Mirror Media Group.
“Ambassador Gao’s words reflect the Ukrainian viewpoint. It’s a crucial counterweight against the excessively pro-Russian stance from state media outlets and the current Chinese Foreign Ministry. Gao’s remark should be a key reference point as we observe China’s evolving line of messaging on the Russo-Ukrainian war,” according to Ho.
There are no signs that Beijing is changing its stance on the war.
...Chinese experts caution against reading too much into Beijing’s occasional softening of its public narrative.
While international pressure (trade $) motivates Beijing to fine-tune its narrow public narrative to slightly distance itself from the Russian narrative, it doesn’t change the fact that the majority of Chinese foreign policy and security experts are genuinely sympathetic to the Russian perspectives, according to Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment’s Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing.
As China braces itself for a world in greater chaos, Xi Jinping is increasingly focused on “filling the gap to win the hearts and minds of the Global South,” as evidenced by his Global Security Initiative which aims to “uphold the idea of indivisible security,” according to Zhao.
https://thediplomat.com/2022/05/a-former-chinese-ambassadors-trenchant-comments-...
35margd
Finland joins NATO
Holly Ellyatt | May 12 2022
...“Finland joining NATO is a radical change in the country’s foreign policy,” the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement Thursday. “Russia will be forced to take retaliatory steps, both of a military-technical and other nature, in order to stop threats to its national security arising.”
The statement comes shortly after Finland’s President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin said the country should apply to join NATO “without delay.”
...Niinisto said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had changed Finland’s security situation although there was no immediate threat.
“NATO membership would strengthen Finland’s security,” the leaders said in their statement, adding that membership would in turn “strengthen the entire defence alliance.”
...Russia’s foreign ministry on Thursday claimed that “the goal of NATO, whose member countries vigorously convinced the Finnish side that there was no alternative to membership in the alliance, is clear — to continue expanding towards the borders of Russia, to create another flank for a military threat to our country.”
...Russia has insisted that Finland’s policy of military non-alignment “served as the basis for stability” in northern Europe but that now, “Helsinki must be aware of the responsibility and consequences of such a move.”
... (Finland) signed a peace treaty with the Soviet Union in 1947 and a further “friendship treaty” in 1992 to build upon this policy.
In recent years, however, Finland and Sweden have both grown closer to NATO, taking part in some operations and missions led by the alliance.
Russia said that Finland joining NATO would violate the 1947 treaty, which it said “provides for the obligation of the parties not to enter into alliances or participate in coalitions directed against one of them.” It also said the 1992 accord would also be violated.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/12/russia-threatens-retaliatory-steps-if-finland-jo...
Holly Ellyatt | May 12 2022
...“Finland joining NATO is a radical change in the country’s foreign policy,” the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement Thursday. “Russia will be forced to take retaliatory steps, both of a military-technical and other nature, in order to stop threats to its national security arising.”
The statement comes shortly after Finland’s President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin said the country should apply to join NATO “without delay.”
...Niinisto said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had changed Finland’s security situation although there was no immediate threat.
“NATO membership would strengthen Finland’s security,” the leaders said in their statement, adding that membership would in turn “strengthen the entire defence alliance.”
...Russia’s foreign ministry on Thursday claimed that “the goal of NATO, whose member countries vigorously convinced the Finnish side that there was no alternative to membership in the alliance, is clear — to continue expanding towards the borders of Russia, to create another flank for a military threat to our country.”
...Russia has insisted that Finland’s policy of military non-alignment “served as the basis for stability” in northern Europe but that now, “Helsinki must be aware of the responsibility and consequences of such a move.”
... (Finland) signed a peace treaty with the Soviet Union in 1947 and a further “friendship treaty” in 1992 to build upon this policy.
In recent years, however, Finland and Sweden have both grown closer to NATO, taking part in some operations and missions led by the alliance.
Russia said that Finland joining NATO would violate the 1947 treaty, which it said “provides for the obligation of the parties not to enter into alliances or participate in coalitions directed against one of them.” It also said the 1992 accord would also be violated.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/12/russia-threatens-retaliatory-steps-if-finland-jo...
36margd
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 6:19 AM · May 12, 2022:
⚡️ Russia's Dmitry Medvedev threatens NATO with nuclear war over helping Ukraine.
Medvedev, deputy chairman of the security council, said that NATO sending weapons, training Ukrainians "increases the likelihood of a direct and open conflict between NATO and Russia."
Medvedev added that such conflict "can turn into a full-blown nuclear war."
⚡️ Russia's Dmitry Medvedev threatens NATO with nuclear war over helping Ukraine.
Medvedev, deputy chairman of the security council, said that NATO sending weapons, training Ukrainians "increases the likelihood of a direct and open conflict between NATO and Russia."
Medvedev added that such conflict "can turn into a full-blown nuclear war."
37margd
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 11:09 PM · May 11, 2022:
⚡️ Russia accuses Ukraine of shelling Belgorod, reports casualties for first time.
Governor of Russia’s Belgorod Oblast Vyacheslav Gladkov claimed that alleged shelling by Ukraine has left one dead and six wounded. Ukrainian authorities have yet to respond to the accusation.
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces have warned since the beginning of the war that Russia may try to stage provocations on its own territory to predicate or justify an attack on Ukraine.
⚡️ Russia accuses Ukraine of shelling Belgorod, reports casualties for first time.
Governor of Russia’s Belgorod Oblast Vyacheslav Gladkov claimed that alleged shelling by Ukraine has left one dead and six wounded. Ukrainian authorities have yet to respond to the accusation.
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces have warned since the beginning of the war that Russia may try to stage provocations on its own territory to predicate or justify an attack on Ukraine.
38margd
Disturbing footage of men shot in back:
The Lead CNN @TheLeadCNN | 7:02 PM · May 11, 2022:
CNN obtains graphic surveillance video showing Russian forces shooting Ukrainian civilians @sarasidnerCNN reports
4:51 ( https://twitter.com/TheLeadCNN/status/1524525506288398336 )
The Lead CNN @TheLeadCNN | 7:02 PM · May 11, 2022:
CNN obtains graphic surveillance video showing Russian forces shooting Ukrainian civilians @sarasidnerCNN reports
4:51 ( https://twitter.com/TheLeadCNN/status/1524525506288398336 )
39margd
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 9:00 AM · May 11, 2022:
⚡️Investigators find documents implying Russia planned to occupy whole of Ukraine.
The State Investigation Bureau reported on May 11 that they found Russian military documents in Trostianets, Sumy Oblast, that imply that Moscow initially planned to occupy the whole of Ukraine. (margd: and still will if given half a chance.)
________________________________________________________
Leaked Kremlin forecasts show Russia facing economic collapse from sanctions: report
Brad Reed | May 11, 2022
...Bloomberg reports that leaked economic forecasts from Russia's Finance Ministry project that the Russian economy will shrink by as much as 12 percent this year as crippling economic sanctions wipe out roughly an entire decade's worth of economic growth.
This would also mark the worst economic crisis for Russia since the 1990s when the collapse of the Soviet Union sent the country's economy spiraling downward.
Natalia Lavrova, chief economist at BCS Financial Group in Moscow, tells Bloomberg...“The main negatives are the oil embargo, the EU giving up Russian gas, along with more departures among foreign companies,” she explained. “All that will probably expand gradually, with a lot of negative carrying over in to 2023.”...
https://www.rawstory.com/russia-sanctions-2657300041/
⚡️Investigators find documents implying Russia planned to occupy whole of Ukraine.
The State Investigation Bureau reported on May 11 that they found Russian military documents in Trostianets, Sumy Oblast, that imply that Moscow initially planned to occupy the whole of Ukraine. (margd: and still will if given half a chance.)
________________________________________________________
Leaked Kremlin forecasts show Russia facing economic collapse from sanctions: report
Brad Reed | May 11, 2022
...Bloomberg reports that leaked economic forecasts from Russia's Finance Ministry project that the Russian economy will shrink by as much as 12 percent this year as crippling economic sanctions wipe out roughly an entire decade's worth of economic growth.
This would also mark the worst economic crisis for Russia since the 1990s when the collapse of the Soviet Union sent the country's economy spiraling downward.
Natalia Lavrova, chief economist at BCS Financial Group in Moscow, tells Bloomberg...“The main negatives are the oil embargo, the EU giving up Russian gas, along with more departures among foreign companies,” she explained. “All that will probably expand gradually, with a lot of negative carrying over in to 2023.”...
https://www.rawstory.com/russia-sanctions-2657300041/
40margd
Euope's New Iron Lady: Estonian PM Kaja Kallas
The Baltic leader has become the EU’s strongest advocate for an uncompromising response to Russia.
Jeremy Cliffe
...Kallas is under no illusions about why Estonia has found new influence. “I have a feeling that we are listened to more than we were before. All those years we were telling (the West) that Russia’s imperialistic dream has never died. And especially in the 1990s we were told: ‘Why do you need Nato? Why do you want to join Nato and the EU? Russia doesn’t pose a threat any more.’ But we said that we know our neighbour. And these were very wise decisions that we took at that time. So coming to today, I feel that we are more listened to as we know what we are talking about.”
Estonians may be unassuming but they are also tough. Being a small nation next to a power like Russia and subjected to long years of occupation and domination will do that to you. When I ask Kallas why she thinks her government has done so much more to support Ukraine, proportionally, than its European counterparts, she offers a typically modest answer.
First, she says, all democratic governments must respond to their voters and “for us (in Estonia) there is very high support for defending Ukraine”...And second, Estonia can move fast because of its size: “We are a small country, whereas with some very big countries the discussions take more time.” ...
...what comes next... "We need the deterrence posture to turn into a defence posture,” she replies. This means a shift from warding Russia off an attack on Nato to being capable of preventing it from taking Nato territory at short notice. She specifies that this requires a division-level Nato presence in each Baltic state (a significant increase in troops from those already present, led by the UK in Estonia), more intelligence sharing and a shift from air policing to air defence. “Where now they just fly up and say ‘You can’t fly here’, air defence means that if someone comes into our airspace, we have a right to take them down as well.”
Kallas...attributes to Putin the notion that “if Russia can’t become the West, then the West must become Russia”. In other words: the West must devolve into a conspiracist, authoritarian nightmare. The Kremlin, argues Estonia’s prime minister, will continue trying to undermine Western unity through cyber threats and by promoting myths about morally corrupt and “anti-family” liberal societies. “Although we are very focused on the conventional war that is going on in Ukraine, the hybrid threats never vanished,” she says. “It will be harder and harder to keep the unity. But saying that, I am also positively surprised that we have been able to keep the unity. Together we are strong.”...
https://www.newstatesman.com/international-content/2022/05/europes-new-iron-lady...
The Baltic leader has become the EU’s strongest advocate for an uncompromising response to Russia.
Jeremy Cliffe
...Kallas is under no illusions about why Estonia has found new influence. “I have a feeling that we are listened to more than we were before. All those years we were telling (the West) that Russia’s imperialistic dream has never died. And especially in the 1990s we were told: ‘Why do you need Nato? Why do you want to join Nato and the EU? Russia doesn’t pose a threat any more.’ But we said that we know our neighbour. And these were very wise decisions that we took at that time. So coming to today, I feel that we are more listened to as we know what we are talking about.”
Estonians may be unassuming but they are also tough. Being a small nation next to a power like Russia and subjected to long years of occupation and domination will do that to you. When I ask Kallas why she thinks her government has done so much more to support Ukraine, proportionally, than its European counterparts, she offers a typically modest answer.
First, she says, all democratic governments must respond to their voters and “for us (in Estonia) there is very high support for defending Ukraine”...And second, Estonia can move fast because of its size: “We are a small country, whereas with some very big countries the discussions take more time.” ...
...what comes next... "We need the deterrence posture to turn into a defence posture,” she replies. This means a shift from warding Russia off an attack on Nato to being capable of preventing it from taking Nato territory at short notice. She specifies that this requires a division-level Nato presence in each Baltic state (a significant increase in troops from those already present, led by the UK in Estonia), more intelligence sharing and a shift from air policing to air defence. “Where now they just fly up and say ‘You can’t fly here’, air defence means that if someone comes into our airspace, we have a right to take them down as well.”
Kallas...attributes to Putin the notion that “if Russia can’t become the West, then the West must become Russia”. In other words: the West must devolve into a conspiracist, authoritarian nightmare. The Kremlin, argues Estonia’s prime minister, will continue trying to undermine Western unity through cyber threats and by promoting myths about morally corrupt and “anti-family” liberal societies. “Although we are very focused on the conventional war that is going on in Ukraine, the hybrid threats never vanished,” she says. “It will be harder and harder to keep the unity. But saying that, I am also positively surprised that we have been able to keep the unity. Together we are strong.”...
https://www.newstatesman.com/international-content/2022/05/europes-new-iron-lady...
41margd
Urgency mounts for U.S. answer to Russian blockade
Officials say they have a narrow window to try to help Ukraine resume operations at the strategic port city of Odesa, a move that could threaten retaliation from Russia.
Meredith Lee | 05/11/2022
A growing number of U.S. lawmakers are pressing the Biden administration to establish a humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea, in an effort to circumvent a Russian military blockade that’s threatening to financially strangle Ukraine while holding back millions of tons of grain from the world food supply.
While European Union officials, with U.S. help, are set to announce a new effort to ship Ukrainian grain over land routes via rail and truck, the land routes are expensive and time-consuming to establish, and even the planners acknowledge they won’t make up for the volume that can be moved by seaport. The bipartisan group of lawmakers argue they have a narrow window to act, as Russian President Vladimir Putin steps up attacks on Ukraine’s east and south, including the strategic port city of Odesa, the sole remaining port under Kyiv’s control — albeit currently inoperable.
President Joe Biden on Tuesday acknowledged growing alarm over the situation and said the U.S. was working on solutions “to get this food out into the world so that it could help bring down prices.” Biden officials have been exploring options to navigate the flow of grain around the Russian blockade, according to three administration officials. But it’s an immense logistical and political challenge that could spark retaliation from Russia...
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/11/ukraine-russian-blockade-global-food-su...
______________________________________________
Ukraine said it had damaged a Russian navy logistics ship near Snake Island while relatives of Ukrainian soldiers holed up in Mariupol's besieged steelworks pleaded for them to be saved https://reut.rs/3MiI0Nu
Image ( https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1524971463824089092/photo/1 )
- Reuters @Reuters | 12:35 AM · May 13, 2022
------------------------------------------------------------------
CïT @Cit_Reload · 4h
So that crane was definitely moving that sunk landing craft so the other could use the dock
------------------------------------------------------------------
RUSSIAN SHIP SET ALIGHT
Jonathan Landay | 13 May 2022
...Ukraine said it had damaged a Russian navy logistics ship near (Snake) island, a small but strategic outpost, and set it on fire.
“Thanks to the actions of our naval seamen, the support vessel Vsevolod Bobrov caught fire – it is one of the newest in the Russian fleet,” said Serhiy Bratchuk, a spokesman for the Odesa regional military administration.
Reuters could not independently verify the details. ...
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/ukraine-forces-thwart-russian-armored...
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Russia-Ukraine War: Russia struggling to make progress in Donbas
The plan to encircle Ukrainian forces in the East could be abandoned in favor of shallower encirclements of Severdonetsk and Lysychansk, but even that might fail, according to the ISW.
AARON REICH | MAY 13, 2022
PHOTO: A satellite image shows a Serna-class landing craft and possible missile contrail near Snake Island, Ukraine May 12, 2022. Picture taken May 12, 2022.
...Russia has also been working on reinforcing its position on Snake Island, the small island in the Black Sea that Russia seized at the beginning of the invasion. This is with the goal of trying to hamper Ukrainian maritime communications in the area, especially around the major port city of Odesa...
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-706614
Officials say they have a narrow window to try to help Ukraine resume operations at the strategic port city of Odesa, a move that could threaten retaliation from Russia.
Meredith Lee | 05/11/2022
A growing number of U.S. lawmakers are pressing the Biden administration to establish a humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea, in an effort to circumvent a Russian military blockade that’s threatening to financially strangle Ukraine while holding back millions of tons of grain from the world food supply.
While European Union officials, with U.S. help, are set to announce a new effort to ship Ukrainian grain over land routes via rail and truck, the land routes are expensive and time-consuming to establish, and even the planners acknowledge they won’t make up for the volume that can be moved by seaport. The bipartisan group of lawmakers argue they have a narrow window to act, as Russian President Vladimir Putin steps up attacks on Ukraine’s east and south, including the strategic port city of Odesa, the sole remaining port under Kyiv’s control — albeit currently inoperable.
President Joe Biden on Tuesday acknowledged growing alarm over the situation and said the U.S. was working on solutions “to get this food out into the world so that it could help bring down prices.” Biden officials have been exploring options to navigate the flow of grain around the Russian blockade, according to three administration officials. But it’s an immense logistical and political challenge that could spark retaliation from Russia...
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/11/ukraine-russian-blockade-global-food-su...
______________________________________________
Ukraine said it had damaged a Russian navy logistics ship near Snake Island while relatives of Ukrainian soldiers holed up in Mariupol's besieged steelworks pleaded for them to be saved https://reut.rs/3MiI0Nu
Image ( https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1524971463824089092/photo/1 )
- Reuters @Reuters | 12:35 AM · May 13, 2022
------------------------------------------------------------------
CïT @Cit_Reload · 4h
So that crane was definitely moving that sunk landing craft so the other could use the dock
------------------------------------------------------------------
RUSSIAN SHIP SET ALIGHT
Jonathan Landay | 13 May 2022
...Ukraine said it had damaged a Russian navy logistics ship near (Snake) island, a small but strategic outpost, and set it on fire.
“Thanks to the actions of our naval seamen, the support vessel Vsevolod Bobrov caught fire – it is one of the newest in the Russian fleet,” said Serhiy Bratchuk, a spokesman for the Odesa regional military administration.
Reuters could not independently verify the details. ...
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/ukraine-forces-thwart-russian-armored...
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Russia-Ukraine War: Russia struggling to make progress in Donbas
The plan to encircle Ukrainian forces in the East could be abandoned in favor of shallower encirclements of Severdonetsk and Lysychansk, but even that might fail, according to the ISW.
AARON REICH | MAY 13, 2022
PHOTO: A satellite image shows a Serna-class landing craft and possible missile contrail near Snake Island, Ukraine May 12, 2022. Picture taken May 12, 2022.
...Russia has also been working on reinforcing its position on Snake Island, the small island in the Black Sea that Russia seized at the beginning of the invasion. This is with the goal of trying to hamper Ukrainian maritime communications in the area, especially around the major port city of Odesa...
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-706614
42margd
Ukraine forces thwart Russian armored column crossing river
Jonathan Landay | 13 May 2022
...Footage released by Ukrainian Airborne Forces Command appeared to show several burnt out military vehicles and segments of a bridge partially submerged in the river. The images showed many more damaged or abandoned vehicles, including tanks, in the woods and on the track leading to the river.
Delivering a daily intelligence update on Friday, Britain’s defense ministry said the images suggested that Russia had lost armored maneuver elements of at least one battalion tactical group and the pontoon bridging equipment depolyed while crossing the Siverskyi Donets river west of Severodonetsk.
...The British defense ministry said Russia was investing significant military effort further south from Kharkiv, near Izium and Severodonetsk*, and was attempting a breakthrough towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk...
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/ukraine-forces-thwart-russian-armored...
_________________________________________________________
* Russia-Ukraine War: Russia struggling to make progress in Donbas
The plan to encircle Ukrainian forces in the East could be abandoned in favor of shallower encirclements of Severdonetsk and Lysychansk, but even that might fail, according to the ISW.
AARON REICH | MAY 13, 2022
...Russia has been investing "significant effort" around the cities of Izium and Severdonetsk as Russian troops try to push for the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Doing this will allow Russian troops to envelop Ukrainian soldiers in the area, cutting them off from any support or reinforcement from Ukrainian forces in the West
...the think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)...report...is doubtful that Russian troops can even encircle Severdonetsk and Lysychansk, let alone capture them.
"Continued and expanding reports of demoralization and refusals to fight among Russian units suggest that the effective combat power of Russian troops in the east continues to be low and may drop further," the ISW noted, adding that abandoning the advance from Izium could also help Ukrainian troops focus on defending Lysychansk and Severdonetsk.
The ISW further noted that Ukraine's counteroffensive around Kharkiv, where Russian forces have had to pull out of in order to march towards Severdonetsk, has been starting to look more successful and made comparisons to the counteroffensive that drove the Russians from Kyiv.
However, Russia has also been working to defend what gains they have already made...working to reinforce their position in the Kherson Oblast in eastern Ukraine from counterattacks and are planning to launch an offensive on Mykolaiv,...as well as firing on nearby Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk...
Russia's Defense Ministry said... its forces struck the Kremenchug oil refinery in central Ukraine,...shot down a Ukrainian Su-27 aircraft in the Kharkiv Oblast...struck a missile warehouse in the Kharkiv Oblast,...hit 15 Ukrainian command posts, six artillery positions and 520 other concentration of manpower and equipment...
Humanitarian aid in Derhachi in the Kharkiv Oblast will not be issued on Friday following a Russian missile strike destroying the Derhachi House of Culture, which was serving as the humanitarian headquarters, the city council said on Facebook...
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-706614
Jonathan Landay | 13 May 2022
...Footage released by Ukrainian Airborne Forces Command appeared to show several burnt out military vehicles and segments of a bridge partially submerged in the river. The images showed many more damaged or abandoned vehicles, including tanks, in the woods and on the track leading to the river.
Delivering a daily intelligence update on Friday, Britain’s defense ministry said the images suggested that Russia had lost armored maneuver elements of at least one battalion tactical group and the pontoon bridging equipment depolyed while crossing the Siverskyi Donets river west of Severodonetsk.
...The British defense ministry said Russia was investing significant military effort further south from Kharkiv, near Izium and Severodonetsk*, and was attempting a breakthrough towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk...
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/ukraine-forces-thwart-russian-armored...
_________________________________________________________
* Russia-Ukraine War: Russia struggling to make progress in Donbas
The plan to encircle Ukrainian forces in the East could be abandoned in favor of shallower encirclements of Severdonetsk and Lysychansk, but even that might fail, according to the ISW.
AARON REICH | MAY 13, 2022
...Russia has been investing "significant effort" around the cities of Izium and Severdonetsk as Russian troops try to push for the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Doing this will allow Russian troops to envelop Ukrainian soldiers in the area, cutting them off from any support or reinforcement from Ukrainian forces in the West
...the think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)...report...is doubtful that Russian troops can even encircle Severdonetsk and Lysychansk, let alone capture them.
"Continued and expanding reports of demoralization and refusals to fight among Russian units suggest that the effective combat power of Russian troops in the east continues to be low and may drop further," the ISW noted, adding that abandoning the advance from Izium could also help Ukrainian troops focus on defending Lysychansk and Severdonetsk.
The ISW further noted that Ukraine's counteroffensive around Kharkiv, where Russian forces have had to pull out of in order to march towards Severdonetsk, has been starting to look more successful and made comparisons to the counteroffensive that drove the Russians from Kyiv.
However, Russia has also been working to defend what gains they have already made...working to reinforce their position in the Kherson Oblast in eastern Ukraine from counterattacks and are planning to launch an offensive on Mykolaiv,...as well as firing on nearby Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk...
Russia's Defense Ministry said... its forces struck the Kremenchug oil refinery in central Ukraine,...shot down a Ukrainian Su-27 aircraft in the Kharkiv Oblast...struck a missile warehouse in the Kharkiv Oblast,...hit 15 Ukrainian command posts, six artillery positions and 520 other concentration of manpower and equipment...
Humanitarian aid in Derhachi in the Kharkiv Oblast will not be issued on Friday following a Russian missile strike destroying the Derhachi House of Culture, which was serving as the humanitarian headquarters, the city council said on Facebook...
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-706614
43margd
Pentagon: "On May 13, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu for the first time since February 18. Secretary Austin urged an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and emphasized the importance of maintaining lines of communication."
- Dan Lamothe (WaPo) @DanLamothe | 11:56 AM · May 13, 2022
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kori Schake 🌻🇺🇦 @KoriSchake | 12:19 PM · May 13, 2022:
Director of foreign/defense AEI , author of Safe Passage, contributing writer at The Atlantic and War on the Rocks....
The right time to urge a ceasefire is when Ukraine wants one, and the right boundary is Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders, as President Zelenskyy has said. Disappointing for @SecDef to suggest otherwise.
(Comments at https://twitter.com/KoriSchake/status/1525148653576507393)
- Dan Lamothe (WaPo) @DanLamothe | 11:56 AM · May 13, 2022
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kori Schake 🌻🇺🇦 @KoriSchake | 12:19 PM · May 13, 2022:
Director of foreign/defense AEI , author of Safe Passage, contributing writer at The Atlantic and War on the Rocks....
The right time to urge a ceasefire is when Ukraine wants one, and the right boundary is Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders, as President Zelenskyy has said. Disappointing for @SecDef to suggest otherwise.
(Comments at https://twitter.com/KoriSchake/status/1525148653576507393)
44margd
>41 margd: >43 margd: Apparently RU military leaders were not taking calls from US counterparts, until Shoygu just picked up for Austin. Ukraine still wants RU out of its territory (China may/may not support, at eat in its internal calculations), but maybe US and RU now each have something the other cares about? Finland and Sweden application to NATO (Turkey, Hungary may not support)? Resumption of UA gains shipments (avert global famine)? Oil, western sanctions.
US won't throw UA, Finland, Sweden under bus (I hope), but maybe there are now enough moving parts to begin moving toward ceasefire, grain shipments, and negotiations on future of UA/Europe and Russia?
US won't throw UA, Finland, Sweden under bus (I hope), but maybe there are now enough moving parts to begin moving toward ceasefire, grain shipments, and negotiations on future of UA/Europe and Russia?
45margd
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien | 4:03 AM · May 15, 2022:
Professor of Strategic Studies, @univofstandrews, Author: How the War was Won, and Second Most Powerful Man in the World. Editor in Chief, War in History
THREAD at https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1525748588445302784
Battle of the Donbas update, some thoughts on what happened the past week and where things might be heading. Looks like we are seeing drastically reduced Russian goals, though even then might be unobtainable. And Russian Army heading for major trouble over the summer.
First, the Russians have severely restricted their offensive activity to now a very small pocket between Popasna and Severodonetsk. Here is the @TheStudyofWar map of the area where the activity is located and a link to their report from last night. https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r
MAP ( https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1525748590718623746/photo/1 )
This represents an extreme rolling back of Russian goals in the Donbas, from a large encirclement to basically a mini-me snipping off of a salient. Tried to show the scaling back in this thread earlier in the week.
Quote Tweet
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · May 13
Interesting to see direct calls for Shoigu’s punishment. However, this is still built on the myth that the Russian Army was capable of some great Blitzkrieg victory over the Ukrainians. It wasn’t, as the Battle of the Donbas reveals. This army can’t do fast armored breakouts. https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1524880300949528583
The reason for scaling back is probably the Russians running out of the equipment--the attrition in the Donbas, and all of Ukraine, continues on. Here are three day average charts for tanks and APCs since the start of the battle (will explain red lines next).
Graph-RU tank and APC (armored personnel carrier) losses ( https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1525748596586463233/photo/1 )
To see just how destructive the daily attritional losses are for the Russians, the red lines represent the peaks for APC and Tank losses that the Ukrainians seem to register when listing Russian losses during the failed river crossing of a few days ago.
Phillips P. OBrien
@PhillipsPOBrien
The story of this engagement tells alot about the war. In one specific area it provides some really good evidence that Ukrainian claims of Russian losses are far more accurate than many have supposed. In this case, we have a fascinating test.
Quote Tweet
BlueSauron👁️@Blue_Sauron · May 12
A tally of Russian losses from the infamous failed Russian Siverskyi Donets river crossing near Bilohorivka.
In total 73 Russian equipment were destroyed/abandoned, including a BTG* worth of AFVs**...
In other words, the losses suffered during this catastrophe didnt even raise Russian losses close to what they were earlier in the Battle of the Donbas. Russian forces have basically suffered something to the river disaster repeatedly since April 24.
These equipment losses have to be taking a toll--particularly when you look at the report last night which showed how the Ukrainians have destroyed a disproportionate number of Russian trucks and logistics vehicles.
Quote Tweet
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · May 14
A really interesting and important breakdown of the relative balance between confirmed Russian and Ukrainian losses--which shows one thing very clearly. The Ukrainians have prioritized attacking Russian logistics whenever possible--to great effect. https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/05/14/russia-losing-ukraine-war-equipment-losse...
Guess is that even if the Russian army could stage some kind of breakout (which looks beyond their capabilities) they could not exploit it regardless as they lack now the lift capability to support advancing forces. Instead all they can do is battle forward a little at a time.
So Battle of the Donbas seems to be subsiding a little as Russian losses lead to them drastically reducing their goals--even with the withdrawal from Kharkiv. Of course the real problem the Russians will face is not right now, its in the coming weeks and months.
Ukrainians clearly aim to keep attriting Russians forces, and might not take many risks for a while as they continue to sap Russian fighting power. Was struck by two reports.
First, Ukrainian military intelligence believes Russia is doing a surreptitious mobilization,*** which is resulting in troops being sent into Ukraine quietly, but also without the right training and motivation. https://gur.gov.ua/ua/content/rosiia-vzhe-vycherpala-rezervy-boiezdatnykh-batali...
This idea of the Russians trying to make up losses by sending in hastily composed formations received some support in the Pentagon briefing on Friday where it was claimed in the last week, the Russians actually increased the number of BTGs in Ukr to 105.
Document--https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3031845/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing/
Sounds like the Ukrainians are expecting more of this, and plan to try and methodically destroy the new formations. The most interesting interview Ive seen this week is this one by the head of Ukrainian DoD intelligence.
2:20 ( https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1525748613141385216 )
Basically indicating that the Ukrainians believe the full Russian collapse will happen by later summer (August). Makes sense. Ukrainians expect the Russians to continue to drip feed in units, will try and destroy those as they appear...
and then when the Russians lose the ability to generate these new scratch formations, the Russian army could collapse.
@IAPonomarenko put together a very good map showing the great shrinking Russian encirclement plans over time.
MAP ( https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1525843071610638342/photo/1 )
The May encirclement heading down from Izyum already looks off the table and the Ukrainians claiming they are counter attacking there.
Quote Tweet
Euromaidan Press @EuromaidanPress
Army of Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in the Izyum district of the Kharkiv oblast - Kharkiv Military Administration Head https://t.me/synegubov/3179
“The hottest point is Izyum direction. 🇺🇦 Army is counter attacking. 🇷🇺forces are retreating in some directions” 📸General Staff
This basic problem is going to get more and more difficult for the Russians--and was what Ukrainian intelligence was talking about. Too much territory to hold and too few soldiers.
Quote Tweet
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 3:06 PM · May 15, 2022
⚡️ General Staff: Russian troops staffed at less than 20% of full capacities in certain areas.
In Kharkiv Oblast, Russia continues to use soldiers mobilized in the Kremlin-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the General Staff reported.
* The Russian battalion tactical group (BTG) is a modular tactical organization created from a garrisoned Russian Army brigade to deploy combat power to conflict zones. https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/content/issues/2017/spring/2Fiore17.pd...
** AFV--Tanks, armoured cars, assault guns/armoured self-propelled guns, infantry fighting vehicles and armoured personnel carriers (APC) are all examples of AFVs. Armoured fighting vehicles are classified according to their characteristics and intended role on the battlefield. (wikipedia)
***
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 1:23 PM · May 15, 2022:
⚡️ General Staff: Russia plans to send up to 2,500 reservists to Ukraine.
The new recruits are being trained at training grounds in Russia’s Voronezh, Belgorod, and Rostov oblasts, according to Ukraine’s General Staff.
Anton Barbashin @ABarbashin | 5:14 PM · May 15, 2022:
Editorial Director @RiddleRussia /Редакционный Директор @RidlRussia
PGR @CEES_GlasgowUni
A Muscovite friend on Facebook published a conscription notice he received today. He is 44.
‘Let Someone Whack You’: Russian Troops Are Now Deliberately Wounding Themselves to Get Out of Putin’s War
‘FALL OFF A TANK’
Russian troops have apparently become so demoralized in Ukraine that they have been concocting ways to injure themselves.
Allison Quinn | May 15, 2022
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-troops-are-now-deliberately-wounding-thems...
Professor of Strategic Studies, @univofstandrews, Author: How the War was Won, and Second Most Powerful Man in the World. Editor in Chief, War in History
THREAD at https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1525748588445302784
Battle of the Donbas update, some thoughts on what happened the past week and where things might be heading. Looks like we are seeing drastically reduced Russian goals, though even then might be unobtainable. And Russian Army heading for major trouble over the summer.
First, the Russians have severely restricted their offensive activity to now a very small pocket between Popasna and Severodonetsk. Here is the @TheStudyofWar map of the area where the activity is located and a link to their report from last night. https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r
MAP ( https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1525748590718623746/photo/1 )
This represents an extreme rolling back of Russian goals in the Donbas, from a large encirclement to basically a mini-me snipping off of a salient. Tried to show the scaling back in this thread earlier in the week.
Quote Tweet
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · May 13
Interesting to see direct calls for Shoigu’s punishment. However, this is still built on the myth that the Russian Army was capable of some great Blitzkrieg victory over the Ukrainians. It wasn’t, as the Battle of the Donbas reveals. This army can’t do fast armored breakouts. https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1524880300949528583
The reason for scaling back is probably the Russians running out of the equipment--the attrition in the Donbas, and all of Ukraine, continues on. Here are three day average charts for tanks and APCs since the start of the battle (will explain red lines next).
Graph-RU tank and APC (armored personnel carrier) losses ( https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1525748596586463233/photo/1 )
To see just how destructive the daily attritional losses are for the Russians, the red lines represent the peaks for APC and Tank losses that the Ukrainians seem to register when listing Russian losses during the failed river crossing of a few days ago.
Phillips P. OBrien
@PhillipsPOBrien
The story of this engagement tells alot about the war. In one specific area it provides some really good evidence that Ukrainian claims of Russian losses are far more accurate than many have supposed. In this case, we have a fascinating test.
Quote Tweet
BlueSauron👁️@Blue_Sauron · May 12
A tally of Russian losses from the infamous failed Russian Siverskyi Donets river crossing near Bilohorivka.
In total 73 Russian equipment were destroyed/abandoned, including a BTG* worth of AFVs**...
In other words, the losses suffered during this catastrophe didnt even raise Russian losses close to what they were earlier in the Battle of the Donbas. Russian forces have basically suffered something to the river disaster repeatedly since April 24.
These equipment losses have to be taking a toll--particularly when you look at the report last night which showed how the Ukrainians have destroyed a disproportionate number of Russian trucks and logistics vehicles.
Quote Tweet
Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien · May 14
A really interesting and important breakdown of the relative balance between confirmed Russian and Ukrainian losses--which shows one thing very clearly. The Ukrainians have prioritized attacking Russian logistics whenever possible--to great effect. https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/05/14/russia-losing-ukraine-war-equipment-losse...
Guess is that even if the Russian army could stage some kind of breakout (which looks beyond their capabilities) they could not exploit it regardless as they lack now the lift capability to support advancing forces. Instead all they can do is battle forward a little at a time.
So Battle of the Donbas seems to be subsiding a little as Russian losses lead to them drastically reducing their goals--even with the withdrawal from Kharkiv. Of course the real problem the Russians will face is not right now, its in the coming weeks and months.
Ukrainians clearly aim to keep attriting Russians forces, and might not take many risks for a while as they continue to sap Russian fighting power. Was struck by two reports.
First, Ukrainian military intelligence believes Russia is doing a surreptitious mobilization,*** which is resulting in troops being sent into Ukraine quietly, but also without the right training and motivation. https://gur.gov.ua/ua/content/rosiia-vzhe-vycherpala-rezervy-boiezdatnykh-batali...
This idea of the Russians trying to make up losses by sending in hastily composed formations received some support in the Pentagon briefing on Friday where it was claimed in the last week, the Russians actually increased the number of BTGs in Ukr to 105.
Document--https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3031845/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing/
Sounds like the Ukrainians are expecting more of this, and plan to try and methodically destroy the new formations. The most interesting interview Ive seen this week is this one by the head of Ukrainian DoD intelligence.
2:20 ( https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1525748613141385216 )
Basically indicating that the Ukrainians believe the full Russian collapse will happen by later summer (August). Makes sense. Ukrainians expect the Russians to continue to drip feed in units, will try and destroy those as they appear...
and then when the Russians lose the ability to generate these new scratch formations, the Russian army could collapse.
@IAPonomarenko put together a very good map showing the great shrinking Russian encirclement plans over time.
MAP ( https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1525843071610638342/photo/1 )
The May encirclement heading down from Izyum already looks off the table and the Ukrainians claiming they are counter attacking there.
Quote Tweet
Euromaidan Press @EuromaidanPress
Army of Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in the Izyum district of the Kharkiv oblast - Kharkiv Military Administration Head https://t.me/synegubov/3179
“The hottest point is Izyum direction. 🇺🇦 Army is counter attacking. 🇷🇺forces are retreating in some directions” 📸General Staff
This basic problem is going to get more and more difficult for the Russians--and was what Ukrainian intelligence was talking about. Too much territory to hold and too few soldiers.
Quote Tweet
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 3:06 PM · May 15, 2022
⚡️ General Staff: Russian troops staffed at less than 20% of full capacities in certain areas.
In Kharkiv Oblast, Russia continues to use soldiers mobilized in the Kremlin-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the General Staff reported.
* The Russian battalion tactical group (BTG) is a modular tactical organization created from a garrisoned Russian Army brigade to deploy combat power to conflict zones. https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/content/issues/2017/spring/2Fiore17.pd...
** AFV--Tanks, armoured cars, assault guns/armoured self-propelled guns, infantry fighting vehicles and armoured personnel carriers (APC) are all examples of AFVs. Armoured fighting vehicles are classified according to their characteristics and intended role on the battlefield. (wikipedia)
***
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 1:23 PM · May 15, 2022:
⚡️ General Staff: Russia plans to send up to 2,500 reservists to Ukraine.
The new recruits are being trained at training grounds in Russia’s Voronezh, Belgorod, and Rostov oblasts, according to Ukraine’s General Staff.
Anton Barbashin @ABarbashin | 5:14 PM · May 15, 2022:
Editorial Director @RiddleRussia /Редакционный Директор @RidlRussia
PGR @CEES_GlasgowUni
A Muscovite friend on Facebook published a conscription notice he received today. He is 44.
‘Let Someone Whack You’: Russian Troops Are Now Deliberately Wounding Themselves to Get Out of Putin’s War
‘FALL OFF A TANK’
Russian troops have apparently become so demoralized in Ukraine that they have been concocting ways to injure themselves.
Allison Quinn | May 15, 2022
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-troops-are-now-deliberately-wounding-thems...
46margd
Steve Rosenberg @BBCSteveR | 12:31 PM · May 15, 2022:
Russian state TV on Finland/Sweden wanting to join Nato:“Their official reason is fear. But they’ll have more fear in Nato. When Nato bases appear in Sweden & Finland, Russia will have no choice but to neutralise the imbalance & new threat by deploying tactical nuclear weapons.”
Map ( https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1525876571948691456/photo/1 )
Russian state TV on Finland/Sweden wanting to join Nato:“Their official reason is fear. But they’ll have more fear in Nato. When Nato bases appear in Sweden & Finland, Russia will have no choice but to neutralise the imbalance & new threat by deploying tactical nuclear weapons.”
Map ( https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1525876571948691456/photo/1 )
47John5918
Retired colonel speaks out on Russian TV (BBC)
It was an extraordinary piece of television. The programme was 60 Minutes, the flagship twice-daily talk show on Russian state TV: studio discussion that promotes the Kremlin line on absolutely everything, including on President Putin's so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine. The Kremlin still maintains that the Russian offensive is going according to plan. But on Monday night, studio guest Mikhail Khodarenok, a military analyst and retired colonel, painted a very different picture... Criticism in print is one thing. But on TV - to an audience of millions - that is another level completely. The Kremlin has gone out of its way to control the informational landscape here: shutting down independent Russian news sources and ensuring that television - the principal tool in Russia for shaping public opinion - is on message. It is rare to hear such realistic analysis of events on Russian TV...
48margd
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 5:51 PM · May 17, 2022:
⚡️Russian media: Russia considering withdrawal from WHO, WTO.
Russia’s parliament will consider withdrawing from the World Health Organization, as well as World Trade Organization, Russian media outlet Kommersant reported, citing Russia’s State Duma deputy speaker Pyotr Tolstoy
_________________________________________
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 7:15 PM · May 17, 2022:
WHO records 226 attacks on Ukrainian healthcare facilities since Russia’s all-out war began.
WHO Regional Director Hans Kluge said the total amounts to “almost three attacks per day since the 24th of February” that have left at least 75 people dead and another 59 injured.
__________________________________________
margd: Also, RU war on Ukraine is impeding grain shipments and production.
Famine has a way of messing with people's health... :(
⚡️Russian media: Russia considering withdrawal from WHO, WTO.
Russia’s parliament will consider withdrawing from the World Health Organization, as well as World Trade Organization, Russian media outlet Kommersant reported, citing Russia’s State Duma deputy speaker Pyotr Tolstoy
_________________________________________
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 7:15 PM · May 17, 2022:
WHO records 226 attacks on Ukrainian healthcare facilities since Russia’s all-out war began.
WHO Regional Director Hans Kluge said the total amounts to “almost three attacks per day since the 24th of February” that have left at least 75 people dead and another 59 injured.
__________________________________________
margd: Also, RU war on Ukraine is impeding grain shipments and production.
Famine has a way of messing with people's health... :(
49John5918
African governments must do more to protect citizens caught up in Ukraine’s war (The New Humanitarian)
International law isn’t without policy tools to address this discrimination – if leaders have the courage to do so...
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a tale of two atrocities: One engages the attention of the world as an international relations priority, the other, the barbarity of racism, receives little official acknowledgement. This unaddressed crime involves African students in Ukraine, and the anti-Black hate they have faced trying to flee the war. Then, there is the legal limbo those who have escaped now encounter as refugees in neighbouring countries, their lives turned upside down by the discrimination that targets them. But bad though the racism is, equally galling is the indifference of African governments to their predicament. What makes this all so unsettling is that both the countries of the perpetrators, and those of the victims, appear complicit in the silence and lack of action over the plight of the stranded students, who now risk deportation...
50margd
>47 John5918: No visible bruises anyway...
Francis Scarr @francis_scarr | 2:51 PM · May 18, 2022:
With @BBCMonitoring
watching Russian state TV so you don't have to
Today retired colonel Mikhail Khodaryonok made another appearance on Russian state TV, just two days after he gave a damning assessment of Russia's war in Ukraine and its growing international isolation
It appears that someone's given him a bit of a talking to
(2:17 with subtitles) https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1526998913986842624
----------------------------------------------------------------
bj2048🌻🇺🇦 @bj2048 | 4:58 PM · May 18, 2022
Replying to @francis_scarr
https://nvo-ng-ru.translate.goog/realty/2021-12-16/3_1170_dreams.html?_x_tr_sl=a...
In his December article Khodarenok talks about Russian expansionism and how it's destined to fail. Look back through his other articles, he's very clear eyed about the Russian military and Ukraine.
Image (https://twitter.com/bj2048/status/1527030915624366080/photo/1)
Francis Scarr @francis_scarr | 2:51 PM · May 18, 2022:
With @BBCMonitoring
watching Russian state TV so you don't have to
Today retired colonel Mikhail Khodaryonok made another appearance on Russian state TV, just two days after he gave a damning assessment of Russia's war in Ukraine and its growing international isolation
It appears that someone's given him a bit of a talking to
(2:17 with subtitles) https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1526998913986842624
----------------------------------------------------------------
bj2048🌻🇺🇦 @bj2048 | 4:58 PM · May 18, 2022
Replying to @francis_scarr
https://nvo-ng-ru.translate.goog/realty/2021-12-16/3_1170_dreams.html?_x_tr_sl=a...
In his December article Khodarenok talks about Russian expansionism and how it's destined to fail. Look back through his other articles, he's very clear eyed about the Russian military and Ukraine.
Image (https://twitter.com/bj2048/status/1527030915624366080/photo/1)
51margd
The Times thetimes | 7:30 AM · May 18, 2022:
Evacuees are being taken to a Russian prison colony and could be put on trial as “Nazi war criminals” (margd: RU parliament was considering such a directive?) rather than exchanged for captured Russians, as Kyiv hopes
0:53 ( https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1526887957340332032 )
________________________________________
ETA
Russia says it’s sent 900 Ukrainian soldiers to prison camp; Moscow dismissing top commanders, UK says
Holly Ellyatt | May 19 2022
Russia says it has sent 900 Ukrainian soldiers to a former prison colony in a Russia-controlled part of Donetsk.
...The International Committee of the Red Cross has said it continues to register prisoners of war from the Azovstal steelworks plant in Mariupol, and has registered hundreds already this week.
The ICRC started to register combatants leaving the Azovstal plant on Tuesday, including the wounded, with the operation continuing through to today. It did not give an exact number of how many soldiers had been registered.
The Red Cross noted that it is not transporting POWs to the places where they are held, with Russia reporting yesterday that it had transferred 900 Ukrainian fighters from the plant to a former prison colony. It’s unknown what will happen to the fighters.
The Red Cross says it has been collecting vital personal information from the fighters who have been captured in a bid to help them keep in touch with their families.
In accordance with the mandate given to the Red Cross by the 1949 Geneva Conventions, it said it must have immediate access to all POWs in all places where they are held. The ICRC must be allowed to interview prisoners of war without witnesses, and the duration and frequency of these visits should not be unduly restricted.
Whenever circumstances permit, each party to the conflict must take all possible measures to search for and collect the dead.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/19/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html
Evacuees are being taken to a Russian prison colony and could be put on trial as “Nazi war criminals” (margd: RU parliament was considering such a directive?) rather than exchanged for captured Russians, as Kyiv hopes
0:53 ( https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1526887957340332032 )
________________________________________
ETA
Russia says it’s sent 900 Ukrainian soldiers to prison camp; Moscow dismissing top commanders, UK says
Holly Ellyatt | May 19 2022
Russia says it has sent 900 Ukrainian soldiers to a former prison colony in a Russia-controlled part of Donetsk.
...The International Committee of the Red Cross has said it continues to register prisoners of war from the Azovstal steelworks plant in Mariupol, and has registered hundreds already this week.
The ICRC started to register combatants leaving the Azovstal plant on Tuesday, including the wounded, with the operation continuing through to today. It did not give an exact number of how many soldiers had been registered.
The Red Cross noted that it is not transporting POWs to the places where they are held, with Russia reporting yesterday that it had transferred 900 Ukrainian fighters from the plant to a former prison colony. It’s unknown what will happen to the fighters.
The Red Cross says it has been collecting vital personal information from the fighters who have been captured in a bid to help them keep in touch with their families.
In accordance with the mandate given to the Red Cross by the 1949 Geneva Conventions, it said it must have immediate access to all POWs in all places where they are held. The ICRC must be allowed to interview prisoners of war without witnesses, and the duration and frequency of these visits should not be unduly restricted.
Whenever circumstances permit, each party to the conflict must take all possible measures to search for and collect the dead.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/19/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html
52margd
Never Again, Again, and Again
Myroslav Laiuk* | May 18, 2022
The massacre in Bucha near Kyiv, committed by Russian soldiers a few weeks ago, came as a shock to many citizens of liberal democratic countries. They shouldn’t be so surprised. Genocide is actually a traditional method of Russian “politics.” What happened in Bucha and what is now happening in Mariupol and other Ukrainian cities—murder, torture, and rape of Ukrainians—is perfectly in keeping with the historical practice of ethnic cleansing long carried out by Russia in Ukraine and elsewhere. Such atrocities, because of the machinations of the perpetrator, have been insufficiently covered and often whitewashed or even justified in the world media.
One of the best examples of such an unnoticed genocide is the extermination of the Crimean Tatars, the indigenous people of what is now Russia-occupied Crimea. Today is its anniversary. The deportation of the Tatars from the Crimean Peninsula began on May 18, 1944. During the deportation, about half of the Crimean Tatar people were exterminated...
Carpathian-Embroidered Table Runners and Crimean-Embossed Utensils
First They Kill the Culture
The Mania of Numbers
And Now the Answer
Again and Again
...The postwar slogan “Never Again” sounds not only insulting but is a kind of mockery today. “Never Again” happened again and will happen again. This will happen again, again, and again, until the country that commits one crime after another is finally stopped and finally punished.
https://www.lawfareblog.com/never-again-again-and-again
* Myroslav Laiuk is a Ukrainian novelist, poet and screenwriter. He holds a doctorate in philosophy and literature from National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, where he teaches creative writing. Laiuk has authored three novels and three poetry collections.
Myroslav Laiuk* | May 18, 2022
The massacre in Bucha near Kyiv, committed by Russian soldiers a few weeks ago, came as a shock to many citizens of liberal democratic countries. They shouldn’t be so surprised. Genocide is actually a traditional method of Russian “politics.” What happened in Bucha and what is now happening in Mariupol and other Ukrainian cities—murder, torture, and rape of Ukrainians—is perfectly in keeping with the historical practice of ethnic cleansing long carried out by Russia in Ukraine and elsewhere. Such atrocities, because of the machinations of the perpetrator, have been insufficiently covered and often whitewashed or even justified in the world media.
One of the best examples of such an unnoticed genocide is the extermination of the Crimean Tatars, the indigenous people of what is now Russia-occupied Crimea. Today is its anniversary. The deportation of the Tatars from the Crimean Peninsula began on May 18, 1944. During the deportation, about half of the Crimean Tatar people were exterminated...
Carpathian-Embroidered Table Runners and Crimean-Embossed Utensils
First They Kill the Culture
The Mania of Numbers
And Now the Answer
Again and Again
...The postwar slogan “Never Again” sounds not only insulting but is a kind of mockery today. “Never Again” happened again and will happen again. This will happen again, again, and again, until the country that commits one crime after another is finally stopped and finally punished.
https://www.lawfareblog.com/never-again-again-and-again
* Myroslav Laiuk is a Ukrainian novelist, poet and screenwriter. He holds a doctorate in philosophy and literature from National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, where he teaches creative writing. Laiuk has authored three novels and three poetry collections.
53margd
So Russian weapon of mass destruction won't be biological, chemical, nuclear--rather it is agricultural?
Russia Prepared for Food Crisis Since Last Year — Kremlin Aide
AFP | 19/5/2022
Russia had taken steps to prepare itself for a food crisis even before President Vladimir Putin sent troops to Ukraine, a Kremlin aide said on Thursday.
Russia and Ukraine alone produce 30 percent of the global wheat supply.
Moscow's military campaign in Ukraine and a barrage of unprecedented international sanctions on Russia have disrupted supplies of fertilizer, wheat, and other commodities from both countries, pushing up prices for food and fuel, especially in developing nations.
"Vladimir Vladimirovich understood that these problems could affect Russia," former economy minister and Putin adviser Maxim Oreshkin told a youth forum in Moscow.
"Russia is actively preparing for a global famine; it started at the end of last year," he added....
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/19/russia-prepared-for-food-crisis-since-...
Russia Prepared for Food Crisis Since Last Year — Kremlin Aide
AFP | 19/5/2022
Russia had taken steps to prepare itself for a food crisis even before President Vladimir Putin sent troops to Ukraine, a Kremlin aide said on Thursday.
Russia and Ukraine alone produce 30 percent of the global wheat supply.
Moscow's military campaign in Ukraine and a barrage of unprecedented international sanctions on Russia have disrupted supplies of fertilizer, wheat, and other commodities from both countries, pushing up prices for food and fuel, especially in developing nations.
"Vladimir Vladimirovich understood that these problems could affect Russia," former economy minister and Putin adviser Maxim Oreshkin told a youth forum in Moscow.
"Russia is actively preparing for a global famine; it started at the end of last year," he added....
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/19/russia-prepared-for-food-crisis-since-...
54John5918
Ukrainian widow confronts Russian soldier accused of killing her husband (BBC)
Ukraine war: One Russian's anti-war protest on the side of his shopping centre (BBC)
In the very first days of this invasion a 62-year-old unarmed civilian was shot dead on a village street outside his Ukrainian home. His name was Oleksandr Shelipov. Three months later and the captured Russian soldier accused of killing him is in Kyiv being tried for a war crime. Standing up in court to confront the 21-year-old defendant on Thursday was Kateryna Shelipova, the widow of the man killed. Did he repent his crime, she asked? The Russian tank commander, Vadim Shishimarin, replied that he admitted his guilt and asked for her forgiveness. "But I understand you won't be able to forgive me," he added... And perhaps such raw encounters are what such trials are about, at least in part. Forcing a soldier - who ignored all the rules of war - to face up to exactly what he has done and the suffering he has caused...
Ukraine war: One Russian's anti-war protest on the side of his shopping centre (BBC)
But there is one thing in this town that is particularly eye-catching: the local shopping centre. Dmitry Skurikhin owns the building - and you should see what he's done to the front of it. In giant letters he's painted "Peace to Ukraine, Freedom to Russia!" In bright-red paint he's listed the names of Ukrainian towns that have been attacked by the Russian army. Mariupol, Bucha, Kherson, Chernihiv, and many more. "I thought this would be a good way of getting information out," Dmitry tells me. "Because for the first few weeks of the war our people didn't know what was happening. They thought that some kind of special operation was being conducted to remove drug addicts from the Ukrainian government. They didn't know that Russia was shelling Ukrainian towns"...
55margd
On-target or not, this one will be reprinted in RU papers, fer sure.
The War in Ukraine Is Getting Complicated, and America Isn’t Ready
The Editorial Board | May 19, 2022
...In the end, it is the Ukrainians who must make the hard decisions...If the conflict does lead to real negotiations, it will be Ukrainian leaders who will have to make the painful territorial decisions that any compromise will demand.
The United States and NATO have demonstrated that they will support the Ukrainian fight with ample firepower and other means. And however the fighting ends, the U.S. and its allies must be prepared to help Ukraine rebuild.
But as the war continues, Mr. Biden should also make clear to President Volodymyr Zelensky and his people that there is a limit to how far the United States and NATO will confront Russia, and limits to the arms, money and political support they can muster. It is imperative that the Ukrainian government’s decisions be based on a realistic assessment of its means and how much more destruction Ukraine can sustain.
Confronting this reality may be painful, but it is not appeasement. This is what governments are duty bound to do, not chase after an illusory “win.” Russia will be feeling the pain of isolation and debilitating economic sanctions for years to come, and Mr. Putin will go down in history as a butcher. The challenge now is to shake off the euphoria, stop the taunting and focus on defining and completing the mission. America’s support for Ukraine is a test of its place in the world in the 21st century, and Mr. Biden has an opportunity and an obligation to help define what that will be.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/opinion/america-ukraine-war-support.html
-------------------------------------------------------------
Andrea Chalupa 🇺🇲 @AndreaChalupa | 6:07 AM · May 20, 2022:
Journalist & Author, Orwell and The Refugees
If the @nytimes Editorial Board has to insist its argument for Ukraine giving up territory to Russia "is not appeasement" then it's appeasement. This is Walter Duranty level nonsense. No wonder they still count his award among their Pulitzers
@ReneDuba | 6:39 AM · May 20, 2022:
I wrote an article about a group of German intellectuals proposing the same. Many of the observations apply more broadly.
The inconsistencies of pacifism
Newsletter on the war in Ukraine · Issue 1
René Duba | Apr 24, 2022
Will not sending weapons bring peace closer?
Bad players
Reality test
Putin himself
Pacifist demands to Scholz
Comments on the open letter
Conclusion
...German pacifists who wrote to Scholz...need better arguments,...although their reasoning may have flaws, we share a desire for peace, we share the humanitarian ideals and we all see the dangers of being sucked into a war that only very few want to be part of. Maybe only a very, very small circle around Putin...
Two choices
There are two choices for pacifists here:
(1) In which pacifism will mean: working towards peace and humanitarian ideals with all means and tools and forms of co-operation at our disposal. Being aware of our commitment (within the UN) to stop genocide, to make peace happen and then to protect it. Being well aware that those means and tools must sometimes include weapons imposing enough to dissuade ‘bad players’ from even trying.
(2) Or in which pacifism could mean: wishing for peace, while denying ourselves or others those means and tools to make peace real...
https://www.getrevue.co/profile/ukraine/issues/the-inconsistencies-of-pacifism-1...
The War in Ukraine Is Getting Complicated, and America Isn’t Ready
The Editorial Board | May 19, 2022
...In the end, it is the Ukrainians who must make the hard decisions...If the conflict does lead to real negotiations, it will be Ukrainian leaders who will have to make the painful territorial decisions that any compromise will demand.
The United States and NATO have demonstrated that they will support the Ukrainian fight with ample firepower and other means. And however the fighting ends, the U.S. and its allies must be prepared to help Ukraine rebuild.
But as the war continues, Mr. Biden should also make clear to President Volodymyr Zelensky and his people that there is a limit to how far the United States and NATO will confront Russia, and limits to the arms, money and political support they can muster. It is imperative that the Ukrainian government’s decisions be based on a realistic assessment of its means and how much more destruction Ukraine can sustain.
Confronting this reality may be painful, but it is not appeasement. This is what governments are duty bound to do, not chase after an illusory “win.” Russia will be feeling the pain of isolation and debilitating economic sanctions for years to come, and Mr. Putin will go down in history as a butcher. The challenge now is to shake off the euphoria, stop the taunting and focus on defining and completing the mission. America’s support for Ukraine is a test of its place in the world in the 21st century, and Mr. Biden has an opportunity and an obligation to help define what that will be.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/opinion/america-ukraine-war-support.html
-------------------------------------------------------------
Andrea Chalupa 🇺🇲 @AndreaChalupa | 6:07 AM · May 20, 2022:
Journalist & Author, Orwell and The Refugees
If the @nytimes Editorial Board has to insist its argument for Ukraine giving up territory to Russia "is not appeasement" then it's appeasement. This is Walter Duranty level nonsense. No wonder they still count his award among their Pulitzers
@ReneDuba | 6:39 AM · May 20, 2022:
I wrote an article about a group of German intellectuals proposing the same. Many of the observations apply more broadly.
The inconsistencies of pacifism
Newsletter on the war in Ukraine · Issue 1
René Duba | Apr 24, 2022
Will not sending weapons bring peace closer?
Bad players
Reality test
Putin himself
Pacifist demands to Scholz
Comments on the open letter
Conclusion
...German pacifists who wrote to Scholz...need better arguments,...although their reasoning may have flaws, we share a desire for peace, we share the humanitarian ideals and we all see the dangers of being sucked into a war that only very few want to be part of. Maybe only a very, very small circle around Putin...
Two choices
There are two choices for pacifists here:
(1) In which pacifism will mean: working towards peace and humanitarian ideals with all means and tools and forms of co-operation at our disposal. Being aware of our commitment (within the UN) to stop genocide, to make peace happen and then to protect it. Being well aware that those means and tools must sometimes include weapons imposing enough to dissuade ‘bad players’ from even trying.
(2) Or in which pacifism could mean: wishing for peace, while denying ourselves or others those means and tools to make peace real...
https://www.getrevue.co/profile/ukraine/issues/the-inconsistencies-of-pacifism-1...
56margd
ian bremmer @ianbremmer | 3:04 PM · May 18, 2022:
political scientist, author, teach at columbia sipa, columnist at time, president @eurasiagroup, @gzeromedia.
% of countries’ gdp given to support ukraine as of may 10
estonia: 0.81%
latvia: 0.72%
poland: 0.46%
us: 0.22%
lithuania: 0.20%
uk: 0.18%
canada: 0.13%
slovakia: 0.12%
norway 0.09%
france: 0.08%
germany: 0.06%
-keil inst for the world economy
-------------------------------------------------------
Elech Mech eh melech @War_in_Jurop | 6:16 AM · May 19, 2022:
This is not very representative, Poland alone is spending between 11-23 bln$ for hosting and caring for the over 2 mln refugees. 7% of children in Poland are Ukrainian atm...
political scientist, author, teach at columbia sipa, columnist at time, president @eurasiagroup, @gzeromedia.
% of countries’ gdp given to support ukraine as of may 10
estonia: 0.81%
latvia: 0.72%
poland: 0.46%
us: 0.22%
lithuania: 0.20%
uk: 0.18%
canada: 0.13%
slovakia: 0.12%
norway 0.09%
france: 0.08%
germany: 0.06%
-keil inst for the world economy
-------------------------------------------------------
Elech Mech eh melech @War_in_Jurop | 6:16 AM · May 19, 2022:
This is not very representative, Poland alone is spending between 11-23 bln$ for hosting and caring for the over 2 mln refugees. 7% of children in Poland are Ukrainian atm...
57margd
We Should Say It. Russia Is Fascist.
Timothy Snyder | May 19, 2022
Dr. Snyder is a professor of history at Yale University and the author of many books on fascism, totalitarianism and European history.
...in Russia’s war on Ukraine, “Nazi” just means “subhuman enemy”— someone Russians can kill. Hate speech directed at Ukrainians makes it easier to murder them, as we see in Bucha, Mariupol and every part of Ukraine that has been under Russian occupation. Mass graves are not some accident of war, but an expected consequence of a fascist war of destruction.
...We understand more about fascism than we did in the 1930s. We now know where it led. We should recognize fascism, because then we know what we are dealing with. But to recognize it is not to undo it. Fascism is not a debating position, but a cult of will that emanates fiction. It is about the mystique of a man who heals the world with violence, and it will be sustained by propaganda right to the end. It can be undone only by demonstrations of the leader’s weakness. The fascist leader has to be defeated, which means that those who oppose fascism have to do what is necessary to defeat him. Only then do the myths come crashing down.
As in the 1930s, democracy is in retreat around the world and fascists have moved to make war on their neighbors. If Russia wins in Ukraine, it won’t be just the destruction of a democracy by force, though that is bad enough. It will be a demoralization for democracies everywhere...Fascist battlefield victories would confirm that might makes right, that reason is for the losers, that democracies must fail.
Had Ukraine not resisted, this would have been a dark spring for democrats around the world. If Ukraine does not win, we can expect decades of darkness.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/opinion/russia-fascism-ukraine-putin.html
Timothy Snyder | May 19, 2022
Dr. Snyder is a professor of history at Yale University and the author of many books on fascism, totalitarianism and European history.
...in Russia’s war on Ukraine, “Nazi” just means “subhuman enemy”— someone Russians can kill. Hate speech directed at Ukrainians makes it easier to murder them, as we see in Bucha, Mariupol and every part of Ukraine that has been under Russian occupation. Mass graves are not some accident of war, but an expected consequence of a fascist war of destruction.
...We understand more about fascism than we did in the 1930s. We now know where it led. We should recognize fascism, because then we know what we are dealing with. But to recognize it is not to undo it. Fascism is not a debating position, but a cult of will that emanates fiction. It is about the mystique of a man who heals the world with violence, and it will be sustained by propaganda right to the end. It can be undone only by demonstrations of the leader’s weakness. The fascist leader has to be defeated, which means that those who oppose fascism have to do what is necessary to defeat him. Only then do the myths come crashing down.
As in the 1930s, democracy is in retreat around the world and fascists have moved to make war on their neighbors. If Russia wins in Ukraine, it won’t be just the destruction of a democracy by force, though that is bad enough. It will be a demoralization for democracies everywhere...Fascist battlefield victories would confirm that might makes right, that reason is for the losers, that democracies must fail.
Had Ukraine not resisted, this would have been a dark spring for democrats around the world. If Ukraine does not win, we can expect decades of darkness.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/opinion/russia-fascism-ukraine-putin.html
58margd
America Must Embrace the Goal of Ukrainian Victory
It’s Time to Move Past Washington’s Cautious Approach
Alexander Vindman* | May 11, 2022
For years before Russia invaded Ukraine in February, the Ukrainians had been growing frustrated with U.S. leadership. A former high-level Ukrainian official described U.S. policy to the country in this way: “You won’t let us drown, but you won’t let us swim.” Washington has earned this mixed reputation in the decades since Ukraine broke free from the Soviet Union in 1991. Although Ukraine saw the United States as an indispensable partner and greatly appreciated U.S. security and economic assistance, many Ukrainians were aggrieved that the United States remained reluctant to more fully and forthrightly support them...
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-05-11/america-embrace-ukrai...
* Vet. NYT Best-selling Author. Ex NSC/ WH Staffer. Advisor @votevets. Pritzker Fellow, Lawfare. Doctorate JHU 22'.
It’s Time to Move Past Washington’s Cautious Approach
Alexander Vindman* | May 11, 2022
For years before Russia invaded Ukraine in February, the Ukrainians had been growing frustrated with U.S. leadership. A former high-level Ukrainian official described U.S. policy to the country in this way: “You won’t let us drown, but you won’t let us swim.” Washington has earned this mixed reputation in the decades since Ukraine broke free from the Soviet Union in 1991. Although Ukraine saw the United States as an indispensable partner and greatly appreciated U.S. security and economic assistance, many Ukrainians were aggrieved that the United States remained reluctant to more fully and forthrightly support them...
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-05-11/america-embrace-ukrai...
* Vet. NYT Best-selling Author. Ex NSC/ WH Staffer. Advisor @votevets. Pritzker Fellow, Lawfare. Doctorate JHU 22'.
59margd
Alexander S. Vindman @AVindman | 10:45 AM · May 20, 2022:
This is not a military target. The Russian state deliberately targeted this house of culture. This is a morale target to punish civilians and destroy Ukraine’s will to resist. This is a war crime.
Hanna Liubakova @HannaLiubakova | 10:40 AM · May 20, 2022:
Journalist from Minsk, Belarus. Non-resident fellow @AtlanticCouncil. Media trainer. Formerly @RFERL, @Belsat_TV. 2019 @worldpressinst fellow...
The Telegram channel of Sergei Bratchuk, the head of the Odesa Regional Military Administration, published a video of a missile attack on a house of culture in Lozovaya in the Kharkiv region. According to Suspilne, at least 7 people were injured, including an 11-year-old child
0:42 ( https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1527660611081052163 )
This is not a military target. The Russian state deliberately targeted this house of culture. This is a morale target to punish civilians and destroy Ukraine’s will to resist. This is a war crime.
Hanna Liubakova @HannaLiubakova | 10:40 AM · May 20, 2022:
Journalist from Minsk, Belarus. Non-resident fellow @AtlanticCouncil. Media trainer. Formerly @RFERL, @Belsat_TV. 2019 @worldpressinst fellow...
The Telegram channel of Sergei Bratchuk, the head of the Odesa Regional Military Administration, published a video of a missile attack on a house of culture in Lozovaya in the Kharkiv region. According to Suspilne, at least 7 people were injured, including an 11-year-old child
0:42 ( https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1527660611081052163 )
60margd
Telegraph World News @TelegraphWorld | 10:32 AM · May 20, 2022:
https://twitter.com/TelegraphWorld/status/1527658413634768897
Mountains of grain left to rot as Vladimir Putin ‘blackmails the world’
The Kremlin's blockade of Ukrainian ports is crippling the world's food production as shipping containers sit loaded with immovable crops, reports @colinfreeman99
Thread 🧵⬇️
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/20/mountains-grain-left-rot-vladi...
🔴In normal circumstances, some 3,000 containers of grain arrive by train every day at Odesa and other Ukrainian ports, where they are stored in silos.
Since the outbreak of war in February, most of that grain has been piling up - around 25 million tonnes at Odesa’s port alone
➡️People like Viktor Berestenko, who owns a shipping company, imports and exports in Ukraine have stopped
🗣️“Take a look out that window there,” Mr Berestenko says, pointing at a terminal where shipping containers are piled across an area the size of several football pitches
🔴The emptiness of the port is matched by the emptiness of Mr Berestenko's office.
Since Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, when Russian warships blockaded Odesa and other Black Sea ports, the 112 employees of his firm, Inter Trans Logistics, have been unable to work
Global exports as % of pre-invasion (https://twitter.com/TelegraphWorld/status/1527658440281276430/photo/1)
➡️In any country that sells its goods by sea, this situation would spell disaster.
But in Ukraine, it spells disaster for the rest of the planet too.
For Ukraine is one of the world’s largest providers of food crops - in particular, supplying wheat to Africa and Asia
Map ( https://twitter.com/TelegraphWorld/status/1527658445041717252/photo/1 )
🔴The stoppage has already fuelled a surge in world wheat prices of nearly 45 per cent, and if not shipped out soon, the wheat will eventually rot
🗣️Ala Stoyanova, the deputy governor of Odesa has said when speaking to the Telegraph that “It is his Putin's aim, I think, to make these poor countries starve from hunger without this grain. When he blocks our ports, by this means he is blackmailing the world”
Ukraine is doing its best to address the crisis, mindful that its own agricultural workers’ livelihoods are in jeopardy too.
The problem, though, is in getting their product to market.
Read @colinfreeman99's dispatch in full here ⬇️
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/20/mountains-grain-left-rot-vladi...
https://twitter.com/TelegraphWorld/status/1527658413634768897
Mountains of grain left to rot as Vladimir Putin ‘blackmails the world’
The Kremlin's blockade of Ukrainian ports is crippling the world's food production as shipping containers sit loaded with immovable crops, reports @colinfreeman99
Thread 🧵⬇️
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/20/mountains-grain-left-rot-vladi...
🔴In normal circumstances, some 3,000 containers of grain arrive by train every day at Odesa and other Ukrainian ports, where they are stored in silos.
Since the outbreak of war in February, most of that grain has been piling up - around 25 million tonnes at Odesa’s port alone
➡️People like Viktor Berestenko, who owns a shipping company, imports and exports in Ukraine have stopped
🗣️“Take a look out that window there,” Mr Berestenko says, pointing at a terminal where shipping containers are piled across an area the size of several football pitches
🔴The emptiness of the port is matched by the emptiness of Mr Berestenko's office.
Since Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, when Russian warships blockaded Odesa and other Black Sea ports, the 112 employees of his firm, Inter Trans Logistics, have been unable to work
Global exports as % of pre-invasion (https://twitter.com/TelegraphWorld/status/1527658440281276430/photo/1)
➡️In any country that sells its goods by sea, this situation would spell disaster.
But in Ukraine, it spells disaster for the rest of the planet too.
For Ukraine is one of the world’s largest providers of food crops - in particular, supplying wheat to Africa and Asia
Map ( https://twitter.com/TelegraphWorld/status/1527658445041717252/photo/1 )
🔴The stoppage has already fuelled a surge in world wheat prices of nearly 45 per cent, and if not shipped out soon, the wheat will eventually rot
🗣️Ala Stoyanova, the deputy governor of Odesa has said when speaking to the Telegraph that “It is his Putin's aim, I think, to make these poor countries starve from hunger without this grain. When he blocks our ports, by this means he is blackmailing the world”
Ukraine is doing its best to address the crisis, mindful that its own agricultural workers’ livelihoods are in jeopardy too.
The problem, though, is in getting their product to market.
Read @colinfreeman99's dispatch in full here ⬇️
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/20/mountains-grain-left-rot-vladi...
61margd
Star Wars?
Russia Claims Its Peresvet Laser Weapon Can Blind Satellites, Burn Drones
The mobile laser system is apparently already being used by troops and can burn a drone out of the sky in 5 seconds.
Matthew Humphries | May 18, 2022
...deputy prime minister Yury Borisov stated that a recent test had seen the (Peresvet) laser burn up a drone 5km (3 miles) away in just five seconds.
Borisov went on to claim that, "it can blind all satellite reconnaissance systems of a likely enemy in orbits of up to 1,500 km, disabling them during flight due to the use of laser radiation." Perhaps this is how Russia intends to take down Starlink if hacking continues to fail?
Peresvet is apparently being mass produced within Russia and supplied to its troops. If true, it suggests Russian forces may be using the mobile laser system in its war with Ukraine, although there's been no evidence of that presented thus far.
Borisov goes on to claim that "unannounced successors" to the existing Peresvet system are in development and that, "This is primarily a laser weapon, an electromagnetic wideband weapon that will replace (conventional weapons) in the next decade - this is not some sort of exotic idea; it is the reality."
https://www.pcmag.com/news/russia-claims-its-peresvet-laser-weapon-can-blind-sat...
Russia Claims Its Peresvet Laser Weapon Can Blind Satellites, Burn Drones
The mobile laser system is apparently already being used by troops and can burn a drone out of the sky in 5 seconds.
Matthew Humphries | May 18, 2022
...deputy prime minister Yury Borisov stated that a recent test had seen the (Peresvet) laser burn up a drone 5km (3 miles) away in just five seconds.
Borisov went on to claim that, "it can blind all satellite reconnaissance systems of a likely enemy in orbits of up to 1,500 km, disabling them during flight due to the use of laser radiation." Perhaps this is how Russia intends to take down Starlink if hacking continues to fail?
Peresvet is apparently being mass produced within Russia and supplied to its troops. If true, it suggests Russian forces may be using the mobile laser system in its war with Ukraine, although there's been no evidence of that presented thus far.
Borisov goes on to claim that "unannounced successors" to the existing Peresvet system are in development and that, "This is primarily a laser weapon, an electromagnetic wideband weapon that will replace (conventional weapons) in the next decade - this is not some sort of exotic idea; it is the reality."
https://www.pcmag.com/news/russia-claims-its-peresvet-laser-weapon-can-blind-sat...
62margd
>55 margd: margd: In wake of NYT editorial
Not sure I agree totally, but she is a poli-sci expert!
Professor Olga Chyzh @olga_chyzh | 4:00 PM · May 20, 2022:
Asst Prof of PolSci, @UofT_PolSci (U Toronto), statistics, network analysis, spatial statistics, terrorism, human rights, repressive regimes. ( https://politics.utoronto.ca/faculty/profile/451/ )
https://twitter.com/olga_chyzh/status/1527741187502776322
It’s natural to be worried about the threat of a nuclear war, especially with all the rhetoric coming out of Russia. Here is some analysis from the perspective of research on authoritarian regimes, war outcomes, and international bargaining.
The bottom line is that the threat of nuclear escalation is low, no matter how this war ends for Russia.
Putin is NOT cornered. He does NOT need an offramp to save face. He is NOT going to lash out and nuke the world—even if Ukrainian forces kick his troops all the way out of Ukraine, including Donbas and Crimea.
And this is because the war in Ukraine is NOT his do-or-die moment, it’s NOT the rope he will hang on, and it will NOT lead to his removal from power, no matter what happens. To understand this, you have to understand the inner workings of the Putin regime and some IR (International Relations) theory.
Every leader stays in power as long as they maintain the support of their winning coalition. In democracies, this coalition is the minimum number of voters that guarantees an election win. In autocracies, the voters don’t matter, and the winning coalition consists of top elites.
Putin’s winning coalition consists of a handful of FSB (Federal Security Service) /SBU (Security Service of Ukraine ) officers and top military officials—people that helped him rise to power, and who he repaid with keeping/giving them top positions within his government.
The sanctions strategy is flawed. To defeat Putin, you have to know how the Kremlin works
Olga Chyzh | 8 March 2022
The west misunderstands the Russian concept of oligarchy, which leaves these powerful actors more beholden to the state...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/08/sanctions-vladimir-putin-k...
Putin will stay in power for as long as he can maintain the support of this group of people. He maintains this support by providing a mix of private rents and policies they support. So how does the outcome of this war affect Putin’s support? It doesn’t.
His inner circle is behind this war 100%--this group of people are politically conservative, anti-West, and anti-democracy. They are using the war to reign in the last of the independent media and political opposition.
They are unconcerned with sanctions and the economy. In their view, Russia will only benefit from becoming more self-reliant. A new iron curtain is their dream come true.
What happens to the support of this group if Russia loses the war? Nothing. No matter what happens, the outcome will be viewed as an honorable draw in a fight with NATO.
NATO may not think they are fighting Russia—because there are no NATO troops in Ukraine—but Russia definitely thinks that it is fighting NATO.
PAYWALL? Italian language article (https://www.corriere.it/economia/aziende/22_aprile_08/we-are-at-war-with-the-west-the-european-security-order-is-illegitimate-c6b9fa5a-b6b7-11ec-b39d-8a197cc9b19a.shtml)
What would Putin do in case of a catastrophic defeat in Ukraine? Let’s see, we actually have historical precedent. The 1st Chechen War was a fiasco: Russian forces suffered tremendous losses and a decisive defeat in the battle of Grozny against an outnumbered & outgunned opponent
What happened to Yeltsin who was President at the time? He won his re-election (Did he win it fair and square? No, but Putin is no stranger to voter suppression, media control, and arresting his political opposition either).
The point is that Putin does not need to win, or even do reasonably well, in this war to stay in power. To him, this war is not even a real war—it is a side mission, a “special operation,” a real-life game of risk he is playing for entertainment.
The stakes are not real to him—he places no value on human life. To him, casualties are simply fewer mouths to feed.
Had the stakes been real, he would have modernized his military. Instead, he fired Serdyukov, who was actually trying to modernize the military, and replaced him with Shoigu, a push-over whose only talent is to divvy up rents.
Had Putin’s own fate been on the line, he would have put real generals in charge (rather than micro-managing the battles himself down to the rank of brigade commander).
Now, does he want you to think that he might use nukes if case of a defeat? Of course, he does. It’s a bargaining strategy. He thrives on the mass hysteria in the West, he laughs at NYT op-eds that pedal his talking points for him.
Bluffing is the name of the game in international bargaining. He is not going to start a nuclear Armageddon. Not over sanctions. Not over offensive weapons. Not over planes.
But there is no cost to him to keep threatening: he counts on mass hysteria in the West to help him extract some sweet concessions, like a bigger chunk of the Black Sea coast in exchange for a ceasefire.
Not sure I agree totally, but she is a poli-sci expert!
Professor Olga Chyzh @olga_chyzh | 4:00 PM · May 20, 2022:
Asst Prof of PolSci, @UofT_PolSci (U Toronto), statistics, network analysis, spatial statistics, terrorism, human rights, repressive regimes. ( https://politics.utoronto.ca/faculty/profile/451/ )
https://twitter.com/olga_chyzh/status/1527741187502776322
It’s natural to be worried about the threat of a nuclear war, especially with all the rhetoric coming out of Russia. Here is some analysis from the perspective of research on authoritarian regimes, war outcomes, and international bargaining.
The bottom line is that the threat of nuclear escalation is low, no matter how this war ends for Russia.
Putin is NOT cornered. He does NOT need an offramp to save face. He is NOT going to lash out and nuke the world—even if Ukrainian forces kick his troops all the way out of Ukraine, including Donbas and Crimea.
And this is because the war in Ukraine is NOT his do-or-die moment, it’s NOT the rope he will hang on, and it will NOT lead to his removal from power, no matter what happens. To understand this, you have to understand the inner workings of the Putin regime and some IR (International Relations) theory.
Every leader stays in power as long as they maintain the support of their winning coalition. In democracies, this coalition is the minimum number of voters that guarantees an election win. In autocracies, the voters don’t matter, and the winning coalition consists of top elites.
Putin’s winning coalition consists of a handful of FSB (Federal Security Service) /SBU (Security Service of Ukraine ) officers and top military officials—people that helped him rise to power, and who he repaid with keeping/giving them top positions within his government.
The sanctions strategy is flawed. To defeat Putin, you have to know how the Kremlin works
Olga Chyzh | 8 March 2022
The west misunderstands the Russian concept of oligarchy, which leaves these powerful actors more beholden to the state...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/08/sanctions-vladimir-putin-k...
Putin will stay in power for as long as he can maintain the support of this group of people. He maintains this support by providing a mix of private rents and policies they support. So how does the outcome of this war affect Putin’s support? It doesn’t.
His inner circle is behind this war 100%--this group of people are politically conservative, anti-West, and anti-democracy. They are using the war to reign in the last of the independent media and political opposition.
They are unconcerned with sanctions and the economy. In their view, Russia will only benefit from becoming more self-reliant. A new iron curtain is their dream come true.
What happens to the support of this group if Russia loses the war? Nothing. No matter what happens, the outcome will be viewed as an honorable draw in a fight with NATO.
NATO may not think they are fighting Russia—because there are no NATO troops in Ukraine—but Russia definitely thinks that it is fighting NATO.
PAYWALL? Italian language article (https://www.corriere.it/economia/aziende/22_aprile_08/we-are-at-war-with-the-west-the-european-security-order-is-illegitimate-c6b9fa5a-b6b7-11ec-b39d-8a197cc9b19a.shtml)
What would Putin do in case of a catastrophic defeat in Ukraine? Let’s see, we actually have historical precedent. The 1st Chechen War was a fiasco: Russian forces suffered tremendous losses and a decisive defeat in the battle of Grozny against an outnumbered & outgunned opponent
What happened to Yeltsin who was President at the time? He won his re-election (Did he win it fair and square? No, but Putin is no stranger to voter suppression, media control, and arresting his political opposition either).
The point is that Putin does not need to win, or even do reasonably well, in this war to stay in power. To him, this war is not even a real war—it is a side mission, a “special operation,” a real-life game of risk he is playing for entertainment.
The stakes are not real to him—he places no value on human life. To him, casualties are simply fewer mouths to feed.
Had the stakes been real, he would have modernized his military. Instead, he fired Serdyukov, who was actually trying to modernize the military, and replaced him with Shoigu, a push-over whose only talent is to divvy up rents.
Had Putin’s own fate been on the line, he would have put real generals in charge (rather than micro-managing the battles himself down to the rank of brigade commander).
Now, does he want you to think that he might use nukes if case of a defeat? Of course, he does. It’s a bargaining strategy. He thrives on the mass hysteria in the West, he laughs at NYT op-eds that pedal his talking points for him.
Bluffing is the name of the game in international bargaining. He is not going to start a nuclear Armageddon. Not over sanctions. Not over offensive weapons. Not over planes.
But there is no cost to him to keep threatening: he counts on mass hysteria in the West to help him extract some sweet concessions, like a bigger chunk of the Black Sea coast in exchange for a ceasefire.
63margd
>55 margd: In wake of NYT editorial
Nataliya Bugayova @nataliabugayova | 11:46 PM · May 19, 2022:
Russia Research Fellow | former Russia Team Lead @TheStudyofWar | Fellow @SchmidtFutures | ex CEO at @KyivPost .
With discussion at https://twitter.com/nataliabugayova/status/1527495857997758467
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1527495857997758467.html
1/10 Russia’s foothold in the southeast would constitute a permanent threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty and even survival. Control over Ukraine remains Putin’s goal, and that goal is not going to change. My latest in the @ForeignPolicy
The Window To Expel Russia From Ukraine Is Now
Russia is digging in across the southeast.
Nataliya Bugayova, a nonresident Russia research fellow at the Institute for the Study of War.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/19/russia-ukraine-war-west-military-aid/
2/10 Russian control of the southeast would subject the people there to perpetual Russian atrocities. Ukrainians trapped behind enemy lines will have limited ability to defend themselves and will be subject to Russian atrocities as observed in Bucha and throughout Ukraine.
3/10 A Russian military foothold in the southeast would threaten Moldova, the Black Sea region, and NATO. It would make any scenario to end this war costlier in lives and resources.
4/10 The Kremlin will likely try to link its territorial gains across Ukraine and potentially beyond by annexing or otherwise integrating other territories that Russia illegally occupies.
5/10 The window to expel Russia is now. The Kremlin is trying to absorb and likely annex Ukraine’s southeast, but Russia has not yet solidified its control over the occupied areas.
6/10 Russia is approaching the limits of the combat-capable manpower it can make available for the war in the short term. Mobilization, if Putin pursues it at all, would take months to put new, usable combat troops into Ukraine.
7/10 The longer Russia is allowed to stay, the costlier it becomes to drive it out. Time also gives Putin an opportunity to adapt the Russian people to the idea of a long war and put the Russian economy on a wartime footing.
8/10 The West’s attention is focused on Russia’s war in Ukraine, but this Western attention is not a constant nor a given. Putin has achieved some of his advances over the past 20 years simply by outlasting the West in the information space.
9/10 While Russian forces have begun to entrench defensively in the southeast, they are still trying to advance. The West must help the Ukrainians get a broader counteroffensive underway before Russia transitions to a coherent defense, which it has not yet done.
10/10 The less successful the Russian offensive is in the east, the more critical the Kremlin’s need to secure the areas it has already seized will become.
---------------------------------------------------------------
John Minard @Newsfrowned
1/2 Yes, time is running out to help Ukraine liberate occupied land before Russia establishes entrenched positions which will flip the 3:1 ratio. Added to that the likely annexation of these areas to Russia. Putin may then ‘reach out’ for peace but without Odessa it’s a pause!
2/2 So continued instability will be guaranteed taking attention off SE Asia. And then the final humiliation of the West relaxing sanctions to lift the Russian blockade on Ukrainian food exports. The West looks timid in protecting its own interests!
Tez 🇺🇦 @Tez11288903
You see things will form a Ukraine perspective well. However, the US does not want to over commit , in case a blow up in Pacific with China leave them overstretch globally…. Potentially losing everywhere.
Big picture.
Jonathan Benner @BennerJonathan
The difficulty of the situation is that, as Putin’s ambitions are forced to contract in face of costly UKR opposition, commitment to hold tightly to RU gains in East/Southeast will increase & can be preserved on defensive, a definite advantage. Russians will dig in like ticks.
🇬🇧 Jack 🇺🇦 Mumse @mumSELondon
How about Ukraine’s seized natural resources, agricultural lands and access to the sea? How could Ukraine be without those?
fotopetters @fotopetters
(Translated from German) Exactly, just my opinion. Russia must give up the entire Black Sea coast, also Kaliningrad. Russia may only have no naval forces. Russia must never go to war again.
Peter S 🇺🇦 follow back pro Europe @Pace1013
Totally agree Putin is encircling Ukraine ! Belarus to North Russia to East and their ambition to own a strip all down black sea denying Grain access to the Black Sea ! Having Odesa and Crimea so close will always be a huge threat ! My problem with this War is its reactive with No plan ahead ! Just bunging weapons gives Ukraine no future ! The most vital ingredient is Stability and security ! $600 billion to rebuild but no one will invest If this may happen again !
dr who? @ALLinONEboat
NYTimes undermining a just war to prevent fascism / genocide from spreading in Europe and No US soldiers in harms way in 2022
versus
2001 beating the drums to go to war with Iraq...
...
Nataliya Bugayova @nataliabugayova | 11:46 PM · May 19, 2022:
Russia Research Fellow | former Russia Team Lead @TheStudyofWar | Fellow @SchmidtFutures | ex CEO at @KyivPost .
With discussion at https://twitter.com/nataliabugayova/status/1527495857997758467
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1527495857997758467.html
1/10 Russia’s foothold in the southeast would constitute a permanent threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty and even survival. Control over Ukraine remains Putin’s goal, and that goal is not going to change. My latest in the @ForeignPolicy
The Window To Expel Russia From Ukraine Is Now
Russia is digging in across the southeast.
Nataliya Bugayova, a nonresident Russia research fellow at the Institute for the Study of War.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/19/russia-ukraine-war-west-military-aid/
2/10 Russian control of the southeast would subject the people there to perpetual Russian atrocities. Ukrainians trapped behind enemy lines will have limited ability to defend themselves and will be subject to Russian atrocities as observed in Bucha and throughout Ukraine.
3/10 A Russian military foothold in the southeast would threaten Moldova, the Black Sea region, and NATO. It would make any scenario to end this war costlier in lives and resources.
4/10 The Kremlin will likely try to link its territorial gains across Ukraine and potentially beyond by annexing or otherwise integrating other territories that Russia illegally occupies.
5/10 The window to expel Russia is now. The Kremlin is trying to absorb and likely annex Ukraine’s southeast, but Russia has not yet solidified its control over the occupied areas.
6/10 Russia is approaching the limits of the combat-capable manpower it can make available for the war in the short term. Mobilization, if Putin pursues it at all, would take months to put new, usable combat troops into Ukraine.
7/10 The longer Russia is allowed to stay, the costlier it becomes to drive it out. Time also gives Putin an opportunity to adapt the Russian people to the idea of a long war and put the Russian economy on a wartime footing.
8/10 The West’s attention is focused on Russia’s war in Ukraine, but this Western attention is not a constant nor a given. Putin has achieved some of his advances over the past 20 years simply by outlasting the West in the information space.
9/10 While Russian forces have begun to entrench defensively in the southeast, they are still trying to advance. The West must help the Ukrainians get a broader counteroffensive underway before Russia transitions to a coherent defense, which it has not yet done.
10/10 The less successful the Russian offensive is in the east, the more critical the Kremlin’s need to secure the areas it has already seized will become.
---------------------------------------------------------------
John Minard @Newsfrowned
1/2 Yes, time is running out to help Ukraine liberate occupied land before Russia establishes entrenched positions which will flip the 3:1 ratio. Added to that the likely annexation of these areas to Russia. Putin may then ‘reach out’ for peace but without Odessa it’s a pause!
2/2 So continued instability will be guaranteed taking attention off SE Asia. And then the final humiliation of the West relaxing sanctions to lift the Russian blockade on Ukrainian food exports. The West looks timid in protecting its own interests!
Tez 🇺🇦 @Tez11288903
You see things will form a Ukraine perspective well. However, the US does not want to over commit , in case a blow up in Pacific with China leave them overstretch globally…. Potentially losing everywhere.
Big picture.
Jonathan Benner @BennerJonathan
The difficulty of the situation is that, as Putin’s ambitions are forced to contract in face of costly UKR opposition, commitment to hold tightly to RU gains in East/Southeast will increase & can be preserved on defensive, a definite advantage. Russians will dig in like ticks.
🇬🇧 Jack 🇺🇦 Mumse @mumSELondon
How about Ukraine’s seized natural resources, agricultural lands and access to the sea? How could Ukraine be without those?
fotopetters @fotopetters
(Translated from German) Exactly, just my opinion. Russia must give up the entire Black Sea coast, also Kaliningrad. Russia may only have no naval forces. Russia must never go to war again.
Peter S 🇺🇦 follow back pro Europe @Pace1013
Totally agree Putin is encircling Ukraine ! Belarus to North Russia to East and their ambition to own a strip all down black sea denying Grain access to the Black Sea ! Having Odesa and Crimea so close will always be a huge threat ! My problem with this War is its reactive with No plan ahead ! Just bunging weapons gives Ukraine no future ! The most vital ingredient is Stability and security ! $600 billion to rebuild but no one will invest If this may happen again !
dr who? @ALLinONEboat
NYTimes undermining a just war to prevent fascism / genocide from spreading in Europe and No US soldiers in harms way in 2022
versus
2001 beating the drums to go to war with Iraq...
...
64margd
Why Finlandization Is a Terrible Model For Ukraine
Antti Ruokonen | April 21, 2022
...The word “Finlandization” is generally used to describe the Soviet Union’s attempt to maneuver and hold Finland in a position where it could be subjected to a maximum amount of influence from the Kremlin during the Cold War. Moscow’s influence and grip fluctuated during this period, but Finland was able to remain a parliamentary democracy and constitutional state throughout.
Those inclined to urge Finlandization as a solution for Ukraine should understand what the term actually means. For Finns, it meant the long-term subjugation of Finland’s politics to the will of an authoritarian neighbor as a cost of retaining independence as a democratic nation; it had consequences for Finnish territory, foreign policy, population, justice and even culture. There’s a good reason Finland may be moving decisively away from this policy now...
https://www.lawfareblog.com/why-finlandization-terrible-model-ukraine
Antti Ruokonen | April 21, 2022
...The word “Finlandization” is generally used to describe the Soviet Union’s attempt to maneuver and hold Finland in a position where it could be subjected to a maximum amount of influence from the Kremlin during the Cold War. Moscow’s influence and grip fluctuated during this period, but Finland was able to remain a parliamentary democracy and constitutional state throughout.
Those inclined to urge Finlandization as a solution for Ukraine should understand what the term actually means. For Finns, it meant the long-term subjugation of Finland’s politics to the will of an authoritarian neighbor as a cost of retaining independence as a democratic nation; it had consequences for Finnish territory, foreign policy, population, justice and even culture. There’s a good reason Finland may be moving decisively away from this policy now...
https://www.lawfareblog.com/why-finlandization-terrible-model-ukraine
65margd
More likely to use against North Korea than Russia?
More likely to be successful against DPRK than RU, I suspect, but wouldn't want to bet the planet on it.
Mission critical
The next generation of missile defense and the team that keeps America safe
Raytheon Missiles and Defense
https://www.washingtonpost.com/creativegroup/raytheon-missiles-defense/misson-cr...
More likely to be successful against DPRK than RU, I suspect, but wouldn't want to bet the planet on it.
Mission critical
The next generation of missile defense and the team that keeps America safe
Raytheon Missiles and Defense
https://www.washingtonpost.com/creativegroup/raytheon-missiles-defense/misson-cr...
66margd
How the war in Ukraine is turning attention to Canada's growing season
Mark Robinson | May 17th 2022
...While Canada is not in the top three wheat producers, we grow far more than we consume, so we are important from an export point of view. Our wheat is also very high quality, so it’s a sought-out commodity for a variety of countries.
The drought of 2021 cut our wheat production by almost 40 per cent and that in turn ate into our stockpiles for export in 2022. Add in the difficulty of obtaining agricultural inputs like fertilizer (much of which is imported from Russia), and this year’s wheat crop looks to be one of the most expensive to produce in many years.
All of this leads to the weather in Canada being so critical to food supplies in 2022.
... very long-term weather forecast is iffy at best, so I went to The Weather Network’s climate expert, Dr. Doug Gillham. And the news is good. “As we look ahead to this summer, we do not see the signals for widespread or persistent drought or extreme heat that we saw at this time last year...However, we are watching the pattern over the central United States where we are concerned about the potential for a very hot summer and severe drought. We can’t completely rule out that this hot and dry pattern won’t expand north into areas of southwest Saskatchewan and Alberta.”
... “The other area of concern is where we’ve had too much of a good thing. Excessive rain in southeastern Saskatchewan and especially in Manitoba, is creating a very serious problem where saturated fields mean that you can’t get out to prepare and plant the fields. We are concerned about a delay in planting and with some hints that this may be a shortened growing season.”
However, Gillham is pleased overall when it comes to the Prairie growing season. “We are cautiously optimistic that we will see adequate rainfall across the growing regions of the Prairies in contrast to last year, but it’s going to depend on where the active storm track sets up.”
...how does this impact the worldwide food supply...?
...Craig Klemmer, Principal Economist at Farm Credit Canada...how complex the global food production system really is. “When we look at the overall food system, the conflict in Ukraine is going to have a big impact and reduces the overall global supply of wheat. Ukraine and Russia are the third and fourth global exporters. They’re very important to the worldwide system...However, when we look at what Canada can produce compared to what Ukraine and Russia can produce, there’s no way we can make up that shortfall. Can we increase our output and help build that overall supply? There’s some opportunity to do that, but unfortunately, the supply chain constraints (are) really impacting agriculture. We’re not likely to get the agricultural inputs that we need to really push those yields so it’s going to be a real challenge this year.”...
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/how-the-ukraine-war-is-turning...
Mark Robinson | May 17th 2022
...While Canada is not in the top three wheat producers, we grow far more than we consume, so we are important from an export point of view. Our wheat is also very high quality, so it’s a sought-out commodity for a variety of countries.
The drought of 2021 cut our wheat production by almost 40 per cent and that in turn ate into our stockpiles for export in 2022. Add in the difficulty of obtaining agricultural inputs like fertilizer (much of which is imported from Russia), and this year’s wheat crop looks to be one of the most expensive to produce in many years.
All of this leads to the weather in Canada being so critical to food supplies in 2022.
... very long-term weather forecast is iffy at best, so I went to The Weather Network’s climate expert, Dr. Doug Gillham. And the news is good. “As we look ahead to this summer, we do not see the signals for widespread or persistent drought or extreme heat that we saw at this time last year...However, we are watching the pattern over the central United States where we are concerned about the potential for a very hot summer and severe drought. We can’t completely rule out that this hot and dry pattern won’t expand north into areas of southwest Saskatchewan and Alberta.”
... “The other area of concern is where we’ve had too much of a good thing. Excessive rain in southeastern Saskatchewan and especially in Manitoba, is creating a very serious problem where saturated fields mean that you can’t get out to prepare and plant the fields. We are concerned about a delay in planting and with some hints that this may be a shortened growing season.”
However, Gillham is pleased overall when it comes to the Prairie growing season. “We are cautiously optimistic that we will see adequate rainfall across the growing regions of the Prairies in contrast to last year, but it’s going to depend on where the active storm track sets up.”
...how does this impact the worldwide food supply...?
...Craig Klemmer, Principal Economist at Farm Credit Canada...how complex the global food production system really is. “When we look at the overall food system, the conflict in Ukraine is going to have a big impact and reduces the overall global supply of wheat. Ukraine and Russia are the third and fourth global exporters. They’re very important to the worldwide system...However, when we look at what Canada can produce compared to what Ukraine and Russia can produce, there’s no way we can make up that shortfall. Can we increase our output and help build that overall supply? There’s some opportunity to do that, but unfortunately, the supply chain constraints (are) really impacting agriculture. We’re not likely to get the agricultural inputs that we need to really push those yields so it’s going to be a real challenge this year.”...
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/how-the-ukraine-war-is-turning...
67John5918
As a psychologist helping Ukrainians, I am a witness to the terrible traumas of war (Guardian)
Zelensky: Only diplomacy can end Ukraine war (BBC)
All four of my grandparents survived the second world war, and all four were scarcely willing to talk about it, having either survived the siege of Leningrad or come back from the frontline wounded. On the rare occasions they did, their memories would leave them devastated. The lifelong PTSD they experienced was quite possibly one of the reasons I became a psychologist. I wanted to do something to end the vicious circle of trauma, abuse, self-neglect and fear. But during my training, I could never have predicted the way I would be applying my skills a decade later. On 25 February, the day after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, I volunteered to join several crisis hotlines where psychologists were working to support those affected by the war. I couldn’t stop the war, but at least I might try to lessen the damage. My colleagues come from many different countries – some of the Ukrainian psychologists kept working between bombings, while others had evacuated to a safer place. Quite a few of us, myself included, are living abroad in safety — a privilege too often taken for granted. During the first weeks of the war, most of the Ukrainian people who texted or called us had either just been evacuated or were still in areas of heavy shelling. Those who managed to escape were suffering from survivor’s guilt, along with shock from the war in general. Those who stayed were experiencing shock in a different way, trying to navigate through their daily spikes of anxiety...
Zelensky: Only diplomacy can end Ukraine war (BBC)
The war in Ukraine can only be resolved through "diplomacy", President Volodymyr Zelensky has said. Speaking on national TV, he suggested his country could be victorious against Russia on the battlefield. However, he added that the war could only come to a conclusive halt "at the negotiating table"...
68margd
Bill Browder (Magnitsky Act) @Billbrowder | 5:16 PM · May 21, 2022
St. Petersburg concertgoers yelling in unison “F..k the war” over and over.
Perhaps Putin’s propaganda isn’t convincing everyone.
Quote Tweet
Соболь Любовь @SobolLubov · 22h
Питер. Концерт. Весь зал скандирует «Х** войне!»
К слову о том, что все россияне поддерживают Путина. Это не так!
(Google translate: Peter. Concert. The whole hall is chanting "X ** war!"
By the way, that all Russians support Putin. This is not true!)
0:14 ( https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1528122626438221824 )
St. Petersburg concertgoers yelling in unison “F..k the war” over and over.
Perhaps Putin’s propaganda isn’t convincing everyone.
Quote Tweet
Соболь Любовь @SobolLubov · 22h
Питер. Концерт. Весь зал скандирует «Х** войне!»
К слову о том, что все россияне поддерживают Путина. Это не так!
(Google translate: Peter. Concert. The whole hall is chanting "X ** war!"
By the way, that all Russians support Putin. This is not true!)
0:14 ( https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1528122626438221824 )
69margd
Dmytro Kuleba @DmytroKuleba | 5:11 AM · May 21, 2022:
Ukraine government official--Minister of Foreign Affairs
Russia puts millions of people at risk of hunger by blocking our ports. Together with partners, Ukraine has established two alternative land routes to deliver food exports and save Africa and other regions from hunger. Russia must end its blockade to allow full and free export.
________________________________________
Daria Kaleniuk* @dkaleniuk | 9:51 AM · May 19, 2022:
AntAC @ANTAC_ua -- Anti-Corruption Action Centre. We're curbing grand political corruption in Ukraine. Public finance monitoring, anti-money laundering, assets recovery.
The cheapest way to stop upcoming food catastrophe is to arm Ukraine enough to win so that we pull away russian army from Black Sea, unblock UA ports & feed the world. Our farmers planted the seeds in spring but they are struggling with exporting the harvest of the past year
----------------------------------------------------------
The coming food catastrophe
War is tipping a fragile world towards mass hunger. Fixing that is everyone’s business
19 May 2022
By invading ukraine, Vladimir Putin will destroy the lives of people far from the battlefield—and on a scale even he may regret. The war is battering a global food system weakened by covid-19, climate change and an energy shock. Ukraine’s exports of grain and oilseeds have mostly stopped and Russia’s are threatened. Together, the two countries supply 12% of traded calories. Wheat prices, up 53% since the start of the year, jumped a further 6% on May 16th, after India said it would suspend exports because of an alarming heatwave.
The widely accepted idea of a cost-of-living crisis does not begin to capture the gravity of what may lie ahead. António Guterres, the un secretary general, warned on May 18th that the coming months threaten “the spectre of a global food shortage” that could last for years. The high cost of staple foods has already raised the number of people who cannot be sure of getting enough to eat by 440m, to 1.6bn. Nearly 250m are on the brink of famine. If, as is likely, the war drags on and supplies from Russia and Ukraine are limited, hundreds of millions more people could fall into poverty. Political unrest will spread, children will be stunted and people will starve...
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/05/19/the-coming-food-catastrophe
Ukraine government official--Minister of Foreign Affairs
Russia puts millions of people at risk of hunger by blocking our ports. Together with partners, Ukraine has established two alternative land routes to deliver food exports and save Africa and other regions from hunger. Russia must end its blockade to allow full and free export.
________________________________________
Daria Kaleniuk* @dkaleniuk | 9:51 AM · May 19, 2022:
AntAC @ANTAC_ua -- Anti-Corruption Action Centre. We're curbing grand political corruption in Ukraine. Public finance monitoring, anti-money laundering, assets recovery.
The cheapest way to stop upcoming food catastrophe is to arm Ukraine enough to win so that we pull away russian army from Black Sea, unblock UA ports & feed the world. Our farmers planted the seeds in spring but they are struggling with exporting the harvest of the past year
----------------------------------------------------------
The coming food catastrophe
War is tipping a fragile world towards mass hunger. Fixing that is everyone’s business
19 May 2022
By invading ukraine, Vladimir Putin will destroy the lives of people far from the battlefield—and on a scale even he may regret. The war is battering a global food system weakened by covid-19, climate change and an energy shock. Ukraine’s exports of grain and oilseeds have mostly stopped and Russia’s are threatened. Together, the two countries supply 12% of traded calories. Wheat prices, up 53% since the start of the year, jumped a further 6% on May 16th, after India said it would suspend exports because of an alarming heatwave.
The widely accepted idea of a cost-of-living crisis does not begin to capture the gravity of what may lie ahead. António Guterres, the un secretary general, warned on May 18th that the coming months threaten “the spectre of a global food shortage” that could last for years. The high cost of staple foods has already raised the number of people who cannot be sure of getting enough to eat by 440m, to 1.6bn. Nearly 250m are on the brink of famine. If, as is likely, the war drags on and supplies from Russia and Ukraine are limited, hundreds of millions more people could fall into poverty. Political unrest will spread, children will be stunted and people will starve...
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/05/19/the-coming-food-catastrophe
70margd
Trent Telenko @TrentTelenko | 7:47 PM · May 20, 2022:
Retired US DoD Civil Servant, Section 22 Special Interest Group list admin
This is going to be a logistical thread 🧵on the Russian drive into and through Popasna in Donbas, with some Gen Douglas MacArthur & military social history thrown in.
Pay attention to the rail lines in this map. It will be important for the rest of the thread.
Map ( https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1527616967594868736/photo/1 )
1/
Popasna is a north-south & east-west rail switching yard.
Russia's drive into Popasna marked a changed operational pattern by the Russian Army in Donbas. The changed pattern was the Russian Army had sufficient artillery ammunition tonnage to make headway against Ukrainian 2/
...field fortifications.
Logistical Intelligence 101 - "Any unexpected change in enemy operational patterns has a changed logistical posture that immediately precedes it.
If the enemy has changed logistical pattern somewhere your intelligence collection missed. 3/
You have to alter your intelligence collection to go find it."
Several of Ukraine's recent 'asks' from NATO point an effort to find this new Russian logistical posture & steps to deal w/it.
The 1st of these recent 'asks' was for more night vision gear for Ukraine's Army &
4/
...Territorial Defense infantry. This is in line with the Russian Army operational pattern change.
In the 1970's night vision equipment had increased the number of major set piece assault engagements per 24 hour period from two-to-three a day to something like four-to-six.
5/
The reason the Russians are pushing back the Ukrainians in/near Popasna now is the Russians have the artillery tonnage to make those 2-to-3 additional night set piece attacks they previously lacked.
6/
The two other 'asks' were for the following:
1. M270/HIMARS rocket launchers with 70km-85km ranged GMLRS rockets
2. Additional Thermal sensors for Ukrainian drones.
These 'asks' strongly suggest to me the Ukrainians think the Arty Ammo is coming by rail & they can't find it. 7/
GMLRS will push whatever rail method Russia is using back by 65-80 km via killing supply dumps near railways.
The additional Western thermal imaging drone sensors will help with finding the ammo dumps.
8/
Based on clues in German & Russian Army social history, plus General MacArthur's Luzon campaign logistics, I think I know what the Russians are doing with the rail lines that Ukraine has missed
This photo is from MGen Hugh Casey's "Engineers of the SouthWest Pacific 1941-1945
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1527798107618086912/photo/1
9/
Volume One, Engineers in Theater Operations"
Gen. Douglas MacArthur's Engineers & Logisticians were miracle workers who turned 60 hp Jeeps into mini-locomotives that moved as much as six 2.5 ton trucks between the beachhead in Northern Luzon to near Manila.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1527798114559700992/photo/1
10/
This trick was vital in moving the massive artillery tonnage necessary to break Japanese Army field forces and capture Clark Field & Fort Stotsenburg on the way to Manila.
Casey's book also shows how his engineers unloaded trains as well as building bridges.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1527798122554052610/photo/1
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1527798122554052610/photo/2
11/
Russian Railway Troops have rail convertible utility vehicles & tactical trucks which could pull several rail cars if required.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1g0NgWen23E&t=183s
12/
The Russians engineers also have modern crane trucks that are counterparts to General Casey's engineer crane trucks.
Ukraine using their new "Phoenix Ghost" drones to spot truck tracks next to rail lines near Popasna seems a good way to verify & validate this thought.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1527798130904793091/photo/1
13/
The Russians are the world superpower in railway military logistics. Their moving 120 battalions - 10 reinforced divisions - was something no other nation can match.
This means Russia's best military minds have to go into railway logistics much like the Prussian & German
14/
...General Staff's sent their best & brightest into the General Staff's railway section and got out raving mad men.
The Russians often study American military history better than the US Military. The Union's deep cavalry raids in the Western theater of the US Civil War in
15/
...developing their "Deep Battle" doctrines come to mind here.
If there was any military organization in the world who would remember Gen Casey's Luzon rail-logistics trick. It would be Russian Railway Troops staff officers.
16/
The understanding of a military's social history and its relationship with technology over time is a hugely useful tool for intelligence analysis.
One that Western intelligence agencies & military's have not included in their professional military education since WW2.
17/
Witness their missing the fact the Russian Army knowingly skipped out on mechanized logistics for 80 years because of the Russian Army's "Its Free money" attitudes with conscript manual labor.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1517323430185558016
18/
A miss that was only revealed by the current Ukraine War.
The importance of the social history of a military institution with period technology was something I discovered in 2013 writing a blog post on Chicagoboyz about the 81st Infantry Division on Peleliu
19/
The title of that post & the link to it are as follows:
History Friday: 81st ID’s Peleliu Lessons for MacArthur’s Invasion of Japan
August 23, 2013
https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/38212
When I got the 81st Infantry Division’s 1944 Peleliu and 1945 post-Peleliu Operation reports and then looked up the military history of WW2 Tramway and Cableway technology. That research changed my understanding of what the “Slide-rule generation” was saying about it's kit.
20/
By doing so, a completely different narrative of possible events emerged, simply from understanding what that technological tool kit meant in social-historical context.
The planned invasion of Japan would not have been as much of a blood bath for American ground forces... 21/(s) will power changes in Western professional military education (PME).
22/
Retired US DoD Civil Servant, Section 22 Special Interest Group list admin
This is going to be a logistical thread 🧵on the Russian drive into and through Popasna in Donbas, with some Gen Douglas MacArthur & military social history thrown in.
Pay attention to the rail lines in this map. It will be important for the rest of the thread.
Map ( https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1527616967594868736/photo/1 )
1/
Popasna is a north-south & east-west rail switching yard.
Russia's drive into Popasna marked a changed operational pattern by the Russian Army in Donbas. The changed pattern was the Russian Army had sufficient artillery ammunition tonnage to make headway against Ukrainian 2/
...field fortifications.
Logistical Intelligence 101 - "Any unexpected change in enemy operational patterns has a changed logistical posture that immediately precedes it.
If the enemy has changed logistical pattern somewhere your intelligence collection missed. 3/
You have to alter your intelligence collection to go find it."
Several of Ukraine's recent 'asks' from NATO point an effort to find this new Russian logistical posture & steps to deal w/it.
The 1st of these recent 'asks' was for more night vision gear for Ukraine's Army &
4/
...Territorial Defense infantry. This is in line with the Russian Army operational pattern change.
In the 1970's night vision equipment had increased the number of major set piece assault engagements per 24 hour period from two-to-three a day to something like four-to-six.
5/
The reason the Russians are pushing back the Ukrainians in/near Popasna now is the Russians have the artillery tonnage to make those 2-to-3 additional night set piece attacks they previously lacked.
6/
The two other 'asks' were for the following:
1. M270/HIMARS rocket launchers with 70km-85km ranged GMLRS rockets
2. Additional Thermal sensors for Ukrainian drones.
These 'asks' strongly suggest to me the Ukrainians think the Arty Ammo is coming by rail & they can't find it. 7/
GMLRS will push whatever rail method Russia is using back by 65-80 km via killing supply dumps near railways.
The additional Western thermal imaging drone sensors will help with finding the ammo dumps.
8/
Based on clues in German & Russian Army social history, plus General MacArthur's Luzon campaign logistics, I think I know what the Russians are doing with the rail lines that Ukraine has missed
This photo is from MGen Hugh Casey's "Engineers of the SouthWest Pacific 1941-1945
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1527798107618086912/photo/1
9/
Volume One, Engineers in Theater Operations"
Gen. Douglas MacArthur's Engineers & Logisticians were miracle workers who turned 60 hp Jeeps into mini-locomotives that moved as much as six 2.5 ton trucks between the beachhead in Northern Luzon to near Manila.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1527798114559700992/photo/1
10/
This trick was vital in moving the massive artillery tonnage necessary to break Japanese Army field forces and capture Clark Field & Fort Stotsenburg on the way to Manila.
Casey's book also shows how his engineers unloaded trains as well as building bridges.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1527798122554052610/photo/1
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1527798122554052610/photo/2
11/
Russian Railway Troops have rail convertible utility vehicles & tactical trucks which could pull several rail cars if required.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1g0NgWen23E&t=183s
12/
The Russians engineers also have modern crane trucks that are counterparts to General Casey's engineer crane trucks.
Ukraine using their new "Phoenix Ghost" drones to spot truck tracks next to rail lines near Popasna seems a good way to verify & validate this thought.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1527798130904793091/photo/1
13/
The Russians are the world superpower in railway military logistics. Their moving 120 battalions - 10 reinforced divisions - was something no other nation can match.
This means Russia's best military minds have to go into railway logistics much like the Prussian & German
14/
...General Staff's sent their best & brightest into the General Staff's railway section and got out raving mad men.
The Russians often study American military history better than the US Military. The Union's deep cavalry raids in the Western theater of the US Civil War in
15/
...developing their "Deep Battle" doctrines come to mind here.
If there was any military organization in the world who would remember Gen Casey's Luzon rail-logistics trick. It would be Russian Railway Troops staff officers.
16/
The understanding of a military's social history and its relationship with technology over time is a hugely useful tool for intelligence analysis.
One that Western intelligence agencies & military's have not included in their professional military education since WW2.
17/
Witness their missing the fact the Russian Army knowingly skipped out on mechanized logistics for 80 years because of the Russian Army's "Its Free money" attitudes with conscript manual labor.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1517323430185558016
18/
A miss that was only revealed by the current Ukraine War.
The importance of the social history of a military institution with period technology was something I discovered in 2013 writing a blog post on Chicagoboyz about the 81st Infantry Division on Peleliu
19/
The title of that post & the link to it are as follows:
History Friday: 81st ID’s Peleliu Lessons for MacArthur’s Invasion of Japan
August 23, 2013
https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/38212
When I got the 81st Infantry Division’s 1944 Peleliu and 1945 post-Peleliu Operation reports and then looked up the military history of WW2 Tramway and Cableway technology. That research changed my understanding of what the “Slide-rule generation” was saying about it's kit.
20/
By doing so, a completely different narrative of possible events emerged, simply from understanding what that technological tool kit meant in social-historical context.
The planned invasion of Japan would not have been as much of a blood bath for American ground forces... 21/(s) will power changes in Western professional military education (PME).
22/
71margd
The Russian Orthodox Leader at the Core of Putin’s Ambitions
Jason Horowitz | May 21, 2022
...The leader of about 100 million faithful, (Patriarch Kirill I ), 75, has staked the fortunes of his branch of Orthodox Christianity on a close and mutually beneficial alliance with Mr. Putin, offering him spiritual cover while his church — and possibly he himself — receives vast resources in return from the Kremlin, allowing him to extend his influence in the Orthodox world.
To his critics, the arrangement has made Kirill far more than another apparatchik, oligarch or enabler of Mr. Putin, but an essential part of the nationalist ideology at the heart of the Kremlin’s expansionist designs. Kirill has called Mr. Putin’s long tenure “a miracle of God,” and has characterized the war as a just defense against liberal conspiracies to infiltrate Ukraine with “gay parades.”
...Kirill’s role is so important that European officials have included him on a list of individuals they plan to target in an upcoming — and still in flux — round of sanctions against Russia, according to people who have seen the list.
Such a censure would be an extraordinary measure against a religious leader, its closest antecedent perhaps being the sanctions the United States leveled against Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
For more than a decade, Kirill’s critics have argued that his formative experience of religious repression during the Soviet era had tragically led him into Mr. Putin’s empowering and ultimately inescapable embrace, turning the Russian Orthodox Church under Kirill’s leadership into a corrupted spiritual branch of an authoritarian state.
Sanctions, while likely to be seen within Russia and its church as merely further evidence of hostility from the Godless West, have the potential to place a finger on the scale of the shifting balance of power within the often bitterly divided Orthodox Church...
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/21/world/europe/kirill-putin-russian-orthodox-ch...
Jason Horowitz | May 21, 2022
...The leader of about 100 million faithful, (Patriarch Kirill I ), 75, has staked the fortunes of his branch of Orthodox Christianity on a close and mutually beneficial alliance with Mr. Putin, offering him spiritual cover while his church — and possibly he himself — receives vast resources in return from the Kremlin, allowing him to extend his influence in the Orthodox world.
To his critics, the arrangement has made Kirill far more than another apparatchik, oligarch or enabler of Mr. Putin, but an essential part of the nationalist ideology at the heart of the Kremlin’s expansionist designs. Kirill has called Mr. Putin’s long tenure “a miracle of God,” and has characterized the war as a just defense against liberal conspiracies to infiltrate Ukraine with “gay parades.”
...Kirill’s role is so important that European officials have included him on a list of individuals they plan to target in an upcoming — and still in flux — round of sanctions against Russia, according to people who have seen the list.
Such a censure would be an extraordinary measure against a religious leader, its closest antecedent perhaps being the sanctions the United States leveled against Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
For more than a decade, Kirill’s critics have argued that his formative experience of religious repression during the Soviet era had tragically led him into Mr. Putin’s empowering and ultimately inescapable embrace, turning the Russian Orthodox Church under Kirill’s leadership into a corrupted spiritual branch of an authoritarian state.
Sanctions, while likely to be seen within Russia and its church as merely further evidence of hostility from the Godless West, have the potential to place a finger on the scale of the shifting balance of power within the often bitterly divided Orthodox Church...
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/21/world/europe/kirill-putin-russian-orthodox-ch...
72margd
UA info can often be verified. Some items that can't necessarily be verified might be gauged to manipulate RU?
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 2:21 PM · May 21, 2022:
⚡️Russia to consider exchanging Mariupol defenders for Medvedchuk.
Russian negotiator Leonid Slutsky said that Russia would consider exchanging the Ukrainian soldiers who were taken by Russia as prisoners of war in Mariupol for pro-Kremlin lawmaker Viktor Medvedchuk.*
* Viktor Volodymyrovych Medvedchuk is a Ukrainian lawyer, business oligarch and politician who was elected as People's Deputy of Ukraine on 29 August 2019. He served as the chairman of the pro-Russian political organization Ukrainian Choice from 2018 to 2022. He is an opponent of Ukraine joining the European Union. Wikipedia
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 2:21 PM · May 21, 2022:
⚡️Russia to consider exchanging Mariupol defenders for Medvedchuk.
Russian negotiator Leonid Slutsky said that Russia would consider exchanging the Ukrainian soldiers who were taken by Russia as prisoners of war in Mariupol for pro-Kremlin lawmaker Viktor Medvedchuk.*
* Viktor Volodymyrovych Medvedchuk is a Ukrainian lawyer, business oligarch and politician who was elected as People's Deputy of Ukraine on 29 August 2019. He served as the chairman of the pro-Russian political organization Ukrainian Choice from 2018 to 2022. He is an opponent of Ukraine joining the European Union. Wikipedia
73margd
olexander scherba🇺🇦 @olex_scherba | 6:37 AM · May 22, 2022:
6 years in 🇺🇦 diplomatic service. Ukraine’s Ambassador to Austria (2014-2021). Author of “Undiplomatic Thoughts” (2021). Currently NAK Naftogaz.
A school in #Russia. A girl takes the mic and says: “No to war! Freedom to #Ukraine! Putin is devil!”
...
0:13 ( https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1528324181758291968 )
6 years in 🇺🇦 diplomatic service. Ukraine’s Ambassador to Austria (2014-2021). Author of “Undiplomatic Thoughts” (2021). Currently NAK Naftogaz.
A school in #Russia. A girl takes the mic and says: “No to war! Freedom to #Ukraine! Putin is devil!”
...
0:13 ( https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1528324181758291968 )
74margd
Francis Scarr @francis_scarr | 11:41 AM · May 21, 2022:
With @BBCMonitoring watching Russian state TV so you don't have to
People of America, Maria Butina* is confident that Russia will "defeat" you and that your country might "fall apart" before the midterm elections
0:13 with subtitles ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1528038190426226694?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVj... )
* Maria Valeryevna Butina, 33, is a Russian politician, political activist and former entrepreneur who was convicted in 2018 of acting as an unregistered foreign agent of Russia within the United States...Member of the State Duma since 2021 (Wikipedia)
With @BBCMonitoring watching Russian state TV so you don't have to
People of America, Maria Butina* is confident that Russia will "defeat" you and that your country might "fall apart" before the midterm elections
0:13 with subtitles ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1528038190426226694?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVj... )
* Maria Valeryevna Butina, 33, is a Russian politician, political activist and former entrepreneur who was convicted in 2018 of acting as an unregistered foreign agent of Russia within the United States...Member of the State Duma since 2021 (Wikipedia)
75margd
Would that all refugees received such a warm welcome.
Oleksiy Sorokin @mrsorokaa | 8:12 AM · May 22, 2022:
Journalist, editor, manager 🇺🇦🇨🇦| @UofT 2018 | ex-Kyiv Post | now @kyivindependent
https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1528348157968621568
“Dear Ukrainians, your relatives — wives, parents, children — who were forced to leave for Poland, are not refugees in our country, they are our guests,” said Polish President Duda.
Ukrainians will never forget everything that Poland has been doing for us.
https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1528348157968621568
0:17 From Kancelaria Prezydenta
Oleksiy Sorokin @mrsorokaa | 8:12 AM · May 22, 2022:
Journalist, editor, manager 🇺🇦🇨🇦| @UofT 2018 | ex-Kyiv Post | now @kyivindependent
https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1528348157968621568
“Dear Ukrainians, your relatives — wives, parents, children — who were forced to leave for Poland, are not refugees in our country, they are our guests,” said Polish President Duda.
Ukrainians will never forget everything that Poland has been doing for us.
https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1528348157968621568
0:17 From Kancelaria Prezydenta
76margd
Carl Bildt @carlbildt | 7:53 AM · May 21, 2022:
Co-Chair European Council on Foreign Relations @ecfr . World Health Organization Special Envoy for ACT-Accelerator who @ACTAccelerator . På svenska på @cbildt .
In the occupied areas there are now reports and pictures of 🇷🇺 occupiers burning the books about 🇺🇦 history they can find. And Putin has been clear that he wants to erase the 🇺🇦 nation.
Co-Chair European Council on Foreign Relations @ecfr . World Health Organization Special Envoy for ACT-Accelerator who @ACTAccelerator . På svenska på @cbildt .
In the occupied areas there are now reports and pictures of 🇷🇺 occupiers burning the books about 🇺🇦 history they can find. And Putin has been clear that he wants to erase the 🇺🇦 nation.
77margd
Mark Hertling @MarkHertling | 4:53 PM · May 21, 2022:
Retired general, US Army in Europe
Always good to be on with acosta. His questions get to the crux of issues.
He asked: "what is Russians trying to achieve?" It's easily answered. They are trying to destroy Ukraine's identity & culture. They can't beat them militarily, so they bomb & terrorize citizens. 1/6
But the results of RU actions run counter to their objectives.
-UKR is standing stronger today than on 2/24. They are more united, their desire for sovereignty & freedom burn white hot.
-UKR cities/cultural centers may be bombed, but their stories grow in intensity. 2/
The fighters at Azovstal stood for 82 days.
An estimated 1500 or so UKR soldiers (intermingled with women and children) fought 12-14,000 RU forces, w/ tanks, planes, artillery.
Those UKR soldiers kept approx 15 BTGs from getting to the Donbas for 2+ months.
That's a win. 3/
The Donbas fight is currently a tactical back & forth, but the RU force is bleeding men, equipment, supplies.
RU morale -the key element for victory- is in the toilet.
UKR is sustaining casualties, to be sure, but nothing like their enemy...and their morale remains high. 4/
Reporters won't be able to report much more than artillery fights, devastations in towns, civilian horrors over the next few weeks.
That's because they're not with UKR or RU forces.
And it's very hard to judge tactical outcomes w/o being there, w/o a clear picture. 5/
But there's a German word which is descriptive of what many soldiers rely on: Fingerspitzengefuhl.
The literal translation: "feel of the fingertips." An intuition of what's happening.
And as a soldier, my intuition is that UKR is generating strength, RU is being drained. 6/6
Retired general, US Army in Europe
Always good to be on with acosta. His questions get to the crux of issues.
He asked: "what is Russians trying to achieve?" It's easily answered. They are trying to destroy Ukraine's identity & culture. They can't beat them militarily, so they bomb & terrorize citizens. 1/6
But the results of RU actions run counter to their objectives.
-UKR is standing stronger today than on 2/24. They are more united, their desire for sovereignty & freedom burn white hot.
-UKR cities/cultural centers may be bombed, but their stories grow in intensity. 2/
The fighters at Azovstal stood for 82 days.
An estimated 1500 or so UKR soldiers (intermingled with women and children) fought 12-14,000 RU forces, w/ tanks, planes, artillery.
Those UKR soldiers kept approx 15 BTGs from getting to the Donbas for 2+ months.
That's a win. 3/
The Donbas fight is currently a tactical back & forth, but the RU force is bleeding men, equipment, supplies.
RU morale -the key element for victory- is in the toilet.
UKR is sustaining casualties, to be sure, but nothing like their enemy...and their morale remains high. 4/
Reporters won't be able to report much more than artillery fights, devastations in towns, civilian horrors over the next few weeks.
That's because they're not with UKR or RU forces.
And it's very hard to judge tactical outcomes w/o being there, w/o a clear picture. 5/
But there's a German word which is descriptive of what many soldiers rely on: Fingerspitzengefuhl.
The literal translation: "feel of the fingertips." An intuition of what's happening.
And as a soldier, my intuition is that UKR is generating strength, RU is being drained. 6/6
78margd
Hillel Neuer @HillelNeuer | 5:26 AM · May 23, 2022:
International lawyer, human rights activist, writer. Executive Director, United Nations Watch. BA, BCL, LLB, LLM & Doctor of Laws, Honoris Causa. 🇨🇦
🧵: https://twitter.com/HillelNeuer/status/1528668629482541057
BREAKING: 🇷🇺 Russia’s Counsellor to the United Nations in Geneva has resigned.
Boris Bondarev: “Never have I been so ashamed of my country.”
UN Watch is now calling on all other Russian diplomats at the United Nations—and worldwide—to follow his moral example and resign.
Text-Bondarev's statement ( https://twitter.com/HillelNeuer/status/1528668629482541057/photo/1 )
Russia at the United Nations and United Nations
"Long overdue but still. Today I resigned from Russian diplomatic service.
For twenty years of my diplomatic career I have seen different turns of our foreign policy, but never have I been so ashamed of my country as on February 24 of this year." /1
"The aggressive war unleashed by Putin against Ukraine, and in fact against the entire Western world, is not only a crime against the Ukrainian people, but also, perhaps, the most serious crime against the people of Russia..." /2
"with a bold letter Z crossing out all hopes and prospects for a prosperous free society in our country." /3
"Those who conceived this war want only one thing - to remain in power forever, live in pompous tasteless palaces, sail on yachts comparable in tonnage and cost to the entire Russian Navy, enjoying unlimited power and complete impunity." /4 (duplicate) /5
"To achieve that they are willing to sacrifice as many lives as it takes. Thousands of Russians and Ukrainians have already died just for this." /6
"I regret to admit that over all these twenty years the level of lies and unprofessionalism in the work of the Foreign Ministry has been increasing all the time." /7
"However, in most recent years, this has become simply catastrophic. Instead of unbiased information, impartial analysis and sober forecasting, there are propaganda clichés in the spirit of Soviet newspapers of the 1930s. A system has been built that deceives itself." /8
"Minister Lavrov is a good illustration of the degradation of this system. In 18 years, he went from a professional and educated intellectual, whom many my colleagues held in such high esteem..." /9
"to a person who constantly broadcasts conflicting statements and threatens the world (that is, Russia too) with nuclear weapons!" /10
"Today, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is not about diplomacy. It is all about warmongering, lies and hatred. It serves interests of few, the very few people thus contributing to further isolation and degradation of my country." /11
"Russia no longer has allies, and there is no one to blame but its reckless and ill-conceived policy." /12
"I studied to be a diplomat and have been a diplomat for twenty years. The Ministry has become my home and family. But I simply cannot any longer share in this bloody, witless and absolutely needless ignominy." /13
And now in Russian:...
International lawyer, human rights activist, writer. Executive Director, United Nations Watch. BA, BCL, LLB, LLM & Doctor of Laws, Honoris Causa. 🇨🇦
🧵: https://twitter.com/HillelNeuer/status/1528668629482541057
BREAKING: 🇷🇺 Russia’s Counsellor to the United Nations in Geneva has resigned.
Boris Bondarev: “Never have I been so ashamed of my country.”
UN Watch is now calling on all other Russian diplomats at the United Nations—and worldwide—to follow his moral example and resign.
Text-Bondarev's statement ( https://twitter.com/HillelNeuer/status/1528668629482541057/photo/1 )
Russia at the United Nations and United Nations
"Long overdue but still. Today I resigned from Russian diplomatic service.
For twenty years of my diplomatic career I have seen different turns of our foreign policy, but never have I been so ashamed of my country as on February 24 of this year." /1
"The aggressive war unleashed by Putin against Ukraine, and in fact against the entire Western world, is not only a crime against the Ukrainian people, but also, perhaps, the most serious crime against the people of Russia..." /2
"with a bold letter Z crossing out all hopes and prospects for a prosperous free society in our country." /3
"Those who conceived this war want only one thing - to remain in power forever, live in pompous tasteless palaces, sail on yachts comparable in tonnage and cost to the entire Russian Navy, enjoying unlimited power and complete impunity." /4 (duplicate) /5
"To achieve that they are willing to sacrifice as many lives as it takes. Thousands of Russians and Ukrainians have already died just for this." /6
"I regret to admit that over all these twenty years the level of lies and unprofessionalism in the work of the Foreign Ministry has been increasing all the time." /7
"However, in most recent years, this has become simply catastrophic. Instead of unbiased information, impartial analysis and sober forecasting, there are propaganda clichés in the spirit of Soviet newspapers of the 1930s. A system has been built that deceives itself." /8
"Minister Lavrov is a good illustration of the degradation of this system. In 18 years, he went from a professional and educated intellectual, whom many my colleagues held in such high esteem..." /9
"to a person who constantly broadcasts conflicting statements and threatens the world (that is, Russia too) with nuclear weapons!" /10
"Today, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is not about diplomacy. It is all about warmongering, lies and hatred. It serves interests of few, the very few people thus contributing to further isolation and degradation of my country." /11
"Russia no longer has allies, and there is no one to blame but its reckless and ill-conceived policy." /12
"I studied to be a diplomat and have been a diplomat for twenty years. The Ministry has become my home and family. But I simply cannot any longer share in this bloody, witless and absolutely needless ignominy." /13
And now in Russian:...
79margd
I can attest, Ukrainian-descended Red River flour makes excellent bread! Still, there is no way that Canada can grow enough wheat to supply the world in the face of Russian aggression and drought in US and Europe... :(
How a single Ukrainian grain made its way to Canada and launched Canadian wheat
Laura Brehaut | May 22, 2022
...Though it may be little known outside plant breeding and research circles, Canadian wheat represents “our debt to Ukraine” — an industry built on a sole kernel from Halychyna (Western Ukraine).
...late research biologist Stephan Symko wrote in his posthumous monograph, From a single seed, “The entire development of Canada’s wheat industry, the most renowned in the world, is due mainly to a single Ukrainian grain of wheat.” ...Halychanka wheat grown in Western Ukraine.
...Symko’s monograph, published in 1999...( https://publications.gc.ca/site/eng/9.804661/publication.html ), starts with a Jean-Henri Fabre quote: “History … celebrates the battlefields whereon we meet our death, but scorns to speak of the planned fields whereby we thrive; it knows the names of the king’s bastards, but cannot tell us the origin of wheat. That is the way of human folly.”...
https://nationalpost.com/life/food/the-surprising-ukrainian-roots-of-canadian-wh...
---------------------------------------------------------
Why Canadian Wheat Matters for Global Markets
Emily Balsamo, CME Group* | May 18th, 2022
https://sponsor.marketwatch.com/cme-group/why-canadian-wheat-matters-for-global-...
* Article sponsored by CME Group Inc., an American global markets company. It is the world's largest financial derivatives exchange, and trades in asset classes that include agricultural products, currencies, energy, interest rates, metals, stock indexes and cryptocurrencies futures. Wikipedia
How a single Ukrainian grain made its way to Canada and launched Canadian wheat
Laura Brehaut | May 22, 2022
...Though it may be little known outside plant breeding and research circles, Canadian wheat represents “our debt to Ukraine” — an industry built on a sole kernel from Halychyna (Western Ukraine).
...late research biologist Stephan Symko wrote in his posthumous monograph, From a single seed, “The entire development of Canada’s wheat industry, the most renowned in the world, is due mainly to a single Ukrainian grain of wheat.” ...Halychanka wheat grown in Western Ukraine.
...Symko’s monograph, published in 1999...( https://publications.gc.ca/site/eng/9.804661/publication.html ), starts with a Jean-Henri Fabre quote: “History … celebrates the battlefields whereon we meet our death, but scorns to speak of the planned fields whereby we thrive; it knows the names of the king’s bastards, but cannot tell us the origin of wheat. That is the way of human folly.”...
https://nationalpost.com/life/food/the-surprising-ukrainian-roots-of-canadian-wh...
---------------------------------------------------------
Why Canadian Wheat Matters for Global Markets
Emily Balsamo, CME Group* | May 18th, 2022
https://sponsor.marketwatch.com/cme-group/why-canadian-wheat-matters-for-global-...
* Article sponsored by CME Group Inc., an American global markets company. It is the world's largest financial derivatives exchange, and trades in asset classes that include agricultural products, currencies, energy, interest rates, metals, stock indexes and cryptocurrencies futures. Wikipedia
80John5918
‘Warmongering, lies and hatred’: Russian diplomat in Geneva resigns over Ukraine invasion (Guardian)
A veteran Russian diplomat in Geneva has resigned over his country’s invasion of Ukraine in a rare political protest from within the Russian foreign policy establishment. Boris Bondarev, a counsellor at the Russian permanent mission to the United Nations in Geneva, wrote in a public statement: “Never have I been so ashamed of my country.” “Today the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is not about diplomacy,” wrote the diplomat, a 20-year veteran of the Russian foreign ministry. “It is all about warmongering, lies and hatred. It serves interests of few, the very few people thus contributing to further isolation and degradation of my country. Russia no longer has allies, and there is no one to blame but its reckless and ill-conceived policy.” Bondarev is the highest-level diplomat yet to resign publicly from the Russian foreign ministry over the war...
81margd
First Day of War
Ludmila Khersonsky | May 9, 2022
Audio: Read by the translator.
2:24: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/05/16/first-day-of-war
First day of war.
Rockets, not birds, whizzed by the window in the morning.
She jumped up in jolly pajamas,
barefoot across the cold floor as across the blue skies,
barefoot across the skies, what is this red flying by the window?
What is this terrible there? With such a satanic whiz
it flies over our heads toward a morning of peace.
Why does transparent glass tremble so, why does transparent soul,
why does it tremble?
So the war came, with no invitation.
No one prepared beds, no one covered the table
with snow-white tablecloth—later, how
to wash the drops of blood from the white
linen cloth?—“So this is a war?” she asked at the closed door,
barefoot in jolly pajamas, what a guest,
uninvited, terrible, I won’t open, I won’t offer it anything, I won’t wear
a pretty dress. “Do not open,” the door boomed.
“Do not offer it anything. Do not wear a pretty dress.
If it starts breaking in, hit it—hit it—with an axe.”
(Translated, from the Russian, by Valzhyna Mort.)
Published in the print edition of the May 16, 2022, issue(New Yorker).
Ludmila Khersonsky is a Ukrainian poet and translator. Her collection “The Country Where Everyone’s Name Is Fear,” which she co-authored with Boris Khersonsky, was recently published in English.
Ludmila Khersonsky | May 9, 2022
Audio: Read by the translator.
2:24: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/05/16/first-day-of-war
First day of war.
Rockets, not birds, whizzed by the window in the morning.
She jumped up in jolly pajamas,
barefoot across the cold floor as across the blue skies,
barefoot across the skies, what is this red flying by the window?
What is this terrible there? With such a satanic whiz
it flies over our heads toward a morning of peace.
Why does transparent glass tremble so, why does transparent soul,
why does it tremble?
So the war came, with no invitation.
No one prepared beds, no one covered the table
with snow-white tablecloth—later, how
to wash the drops of blood from the white
linen cloth?—“So this is a war?” she asked at the closed door,
barefoot in jolly pajamas, what a guest,
uninvited, terrible, I won’t open, I won’t offer it anything, I won’t wear
a pretty dress. “Do not open,” the door boomed.
“Do not offer it anything. Do not wear a pretty dress.
If it starts breaking in, hit it—hit it—with an axe.”
(Translated, from the Russian, by Valzhyna Mort.)
Published in the print edition of the May 16, 2022, issue(New Yorker).
Ludmila Khersonsky is a Ukrainian poet and translator. Her collection “The Country Where Everyone’s Name Is Fear,” which she co-authored with Boris Khersonsky, was recently published in English.
82margd
Oleksiy Sorokin @mrsorokaa | 6:40 AM · May 24, 2022:
Journalist, editor, manager 🇺🇦🇨🇦| @UofT
2018 | ex-Kyiv Post | now @kyivindependent
https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1529049629295271937
Unfortunately, it looks like Russians have breached Ukrainian defenses near Svitlodarsk, possibly sacking the city.
The encirclement of the Lysychansk-Sievierodonetsk urban area looks very real. The city of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast is now also under threat.
___________________________________________________
ETA
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 3:38 PM · May 23, 2022:
Independent English-language journalism in Ukraine.
⚡️ Zelensky: Russia has 20 times more military equipment in Donbas than Ukraine.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said during his speech in Davos that Ukraine needs more long-range artillery to avoid the death of hundreds of thousands of people.
Journalist, editor, manager 🇺🇦🇨🇦| @UofT
2018 | ex-Kyiv Post | now @kyivindependent
https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1529049629295271937
Unfortunately, it looks like Russians have breached Ukrainian defenses near Svitlodarsk, possibly sacking the city.
The encirclement of the Lysychansk-Sievierodonetsk urban area looks very real. The city of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast is now also under threat.
___________________________________________________
ETA
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 3:38 PM · May 23, 2022:
Independent English-language journalism in Ukraine.
⚡️ Zelensky: Russia has 20 times more military equipment in Donbas than Ukraine.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said during his speech in Davos that Ukraine needs more long-range artillery to avoid the death of hundreds of thousands of people.
83margd
Ukraine: 200 bodies found in basement in Mariupol’s ruins
ELENA BECATOROS, OLEKSANDR STASHEVSKYI and RICARDO MAZALAN57 | May 24, 2022
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Workers digging through the rubble of an apartment building in Mariupol found 200 bodies in the basement, Ukrainian authorities said Tuesday, as more horrors come to light in the ruined city that has seen some of the worst suffering of the 3-month-old war.
The bodies were decomposing and the stench hung over the neighborhood, said Petro Andryushchenko, an adviser to the mayor. He did not when they were discovered, but the sheer number of victims makes it one of the deadliest known attacks of the war...
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-kyiv-0c74a0c16b834732b81e460...
ELENA BECATOROS, OLEKSANDR STASHEVSKYI and RICARDO MAZALAN57 | May 24, 2022
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Workers digging through the rubble of an apartment building in Mariupol found 200 bodies in the basement, Ukrainian authorities said Tuesday, as more horrors come to light in the ruined city that has seen some of the worst suffering of the 3-month-old war.
The bodies were decomposing and the stench hung over the neighborhood, said Petro Andryushchenko, an adviser to the mayor. He did not when they were discovered, but the sheer number of victims makes it one of the deadliest known attacks of the war...
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-kyiv-0c74a0c16b834732b81e460...
84margd
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 11:55 AM · May 24, 2022:
⚡️BBC Russia: Retired Russian general killed in Ukraine’s airspace.
Major General Kanamat Botashev has been shot down while flying over Luhansk Oblast, BBC Russia reported. Botashev is reportedly the highest-ranking Russian pilot killed in Ukraine.
⚡️BBC Russia: Retired Russian general killed in Ukraine’s airspace.
Major General Kanamat Botashev has been shot down while flying over Luhansk Oblast, BBC Russia reported. Botashev is reportedly the highest-ranking Russian pilot killed in Ukraine.
85margd
Anastasiia Lapatina @lapatina_ | 1:37 PM · May 24, 2022:
Ukrainian journalist @KyivIndependent | 🎙Co-host of “Did The War End?” | Lead of @KidsOfWarUA
A westerner will never understand what occupation feels like. Someone else's language. The wrong currency. A different street name. National heroes you don't see as such. A foreign school curriculum. Only those who don't know what this feels like can suggest conceding territory
Ukrainian journalist @KyivIndependent | 🎙Co-host of “Did The War End?” | Lead of @KidsOfWarUA
A westerner will never understand what occupation feels like. Someone else's language. The wrong currency. A different street name. National heroes you don't see as such. A foreign school curriculum. Only those who don't know what this feels like can suggest conceding territory
86John5918
Ukraine invasion may be start of ‘third world war’, says George Soros (Guardian)
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to be the “beginning of the third world war” that could spell the end of civilisation, the veteran philanthropist and former financier George Soros has warned... autocratic regimes were in the ascendant and the global economy was heading for a depression... “The invasion may have been the beginning of the third world war and our civilisation may not survive it,” he said. “The invasion of Ukraine didn’t come out of the blue. The world has been increasingly engaged in a struggle between two systems of governance that are diametrically opposed to each other: open society and closed society.” The 91-year-old former hedge fund owner said the tide had started to turn against open societies in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the US in 2001...
87lriley
>85 margd: like that POS Kissinger suggesting that Ukraine should negotiate large tracts of their country to Russia.
To her point though I’m not sure the Russians have any program in mind for rebuilding anything of what they’ve conquered/destroyed. What is left of Mariupol for instance. With the evacuation of millions of Ukrainians from the most war torn areas what they might have more in mind if they ever get to a somewhat stable situation (which is questionable if that happens) is resettling some of these areas with Russian or Belarusian nationals. Much of the population still remaining in these areas now are middle aged and older—those too stubborn and/or those unable to leave.
To her point though I’m not sure the Russians have any program in mind for rebuilding anything of what they’ve conquered/destroyed. What is left of Mariupol for instance. With the evacuation of millions of Ukrainians from the most war torn areas what they might have more in mind if they ever get to a somewhat stable situation (which is questionable if that happens) is resettling some of these areas with Russian or Belarusian nationals. Much of the population still remaining in these areas now are middle aged and older—those too stubborn and/or those unable to leave.
88margd
Russia in RSA 🇷🇺 @EmbassyofRussia | 7:17 AM · May 25, 2022:
Official twitter-account of the Embassy of Russia 🇷🇺 in South Africa.
https://twitter.com/EmbassyofRussia/status/1529421333007933442
FM (Foreign Minister) #Lavrov: The West is calling on everyone to abide by the “rules-based order.” No one has seen these “rules” or participated in devising them. Our logical question as to why they are dissatisfied with the rules known as the UN Charter is not answered. But we know the answer.
Photo Lavrov ( https://twitter.com/EmbassyofRussia/status/1529421333007933442/photo/1 )
MFA Russia 🇷🇺 and 9 others
___________________________________________________
But what does “rules-based order” mean?
Ben Scott | 2 Nov 2020
...the concept is used in official discourse to mean many different things, and they’re not always complementary. Although the term “rules-based international order” was only coined after the Cold War, Canberra typically dates it to the aftermath of the Second World War and the institutions and norms – centred on the UN – that were established then. It is often credited with having delivered 70 years of peace and security.
Other recurring propositions are that the rules-based order has both constrained the use of power and depends on US power; that it could shape China’s rise and be shaped by China; and that it must be saved and must change.
...although (Australian Foreign Minister Marise) Payne’s speech in June (2020) was all about the rules-based order, she didn’t use the phrase once.
...Her list of “three fundamental parts of the multilateral system” that Australia will focus on preserving was so sweeping that nothing much was left out. She cited:
(1) the rules that protect sovereignty, preserve peace and curb excessive use of power, and enable international trade and investment;
(2) the international standards related to health and pandemics, to transport, telecommunications and other issues that underpin the global economy, and which will be vital to a post-Covid-19 economic recovery; and thirdly,
(3) the norms that underpin universal human rights, gender equality and the rule of law.
Payne extended the concept by highlighting – correctly – the importance of often-overlooked technical bodies. They set ostensibly apolitical standards on “civil aviation, maritime transport, intellectual property, telecommunications, agriculture”. Unfortunately, there was little detail provided about her department’s audit of multilateral institutions, but Payne clearly recognised that these bodes are now frequent sites of ideological competition (chiefly with China, although she wasn’t that specific). She declared that “we must stand up for our values and bring our influence to bear in these institutions to … preserve the open character of international institutions based on universal values and transparency”.
Managing great power relations
...the rules-based order can also be understood, less ideologically, as a mechanism for managing competition between states with divergent values.
...Michèle Flournoy, widely touted as a Secretary for Defence in a future Biden administration, told the US Studies Centre that: " We don’t have a real risk-reduction framework with China, we don’t have an “incidents at sea” agreement, we don’t have the kinds of measures that were put in place back in the days of US-Soviet tensions … this is not something that I think will be well received if it is just the US approaching China. I think a number of countries need to approach China together to say “look, the risk is too high, we need to agree on some standards, some norms, some procedures to reduce the level of risk and miscalculation."
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/what-does-rules-based-order-mean
___________________________________________________
United Nations Charter (full text)
Preamble
Chapter I: Purposes and Principles
...Article 2
The Organization and its Members, in pursuit of the Purposes stated in Article 1, shall act in accordance with the following Principles.
1. The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members.
2. All Members, in order to ensure to all of them the rights and benefits resulting from membership, shall fulfill in good faith the obligations assumed by them in accordance with the present Charter.
3. All Members shall settle their international disputes by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security, and justice, are not endangered.
4. All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.
5. All Members shall give the United Nations every assistance in any action it takes in accordance with the present Charter, and shall refrain from giving assistance to any state against which the United Nations is taking preventive or enforcement action.
6. The Organization shall ensure that states which are not Members of the United Nations act in accordance with these Principles so far as may be necessary for the maintenance of international peace and security.
7. Nothing contained in the present Charter shall authorize the United Nations to intervene in matters which are essentially within the domestic jurisdiction of any state or shall require the Members to submit such matters to settlement under the present Charter; but this principle shall not prejudice the application of enforcement measures under Chapter Vll...
Chapter VI: Pacific Settlement of Disputes
Chapter VII: Action with Respect to Threats to the Peace, Breaches of the Peace, and Acts of Aggression...(Security Council, where USSR/Russia has permanent membership, is central)...
Chapter VIII: Regional Arrangements (nothing precludes if consistent with the Purposes and Principles of the United Nations)...
https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter/full-text
Official twitter-account of the Embassy of Russia 🇷🇺 in South Africa.
https://twitter.com/EmbassyofRussia/status/1529421333007933442
FM (Foreign Minister) #Lavrov: The West is calling on everyone to abide by the “rules-based order.” No one has seen these “rules” or participated in devising them. Our logical question as to why they are dissatisfied with the rules known as the UN Charter is not answered. But we know the answer.
Photo Lavrov ( https://twitter.com/EmbassyofRussia/status/1529421333007933442/photo/1 )
MFA Russia 🇷🇺 and 9 others
___________________________________________________
But what does “rules-based order” mean?
Ben Scott | 2 Nov 2020
...the concept is used in official discourse to mean many different things, and they’re not always complementary. Although the term “rules-based international order” was only coined after the Cold War, Canberra typically dates it to the aftermath of the Second World War and the institutions and norms – centred on the UN – that were established then. It is often credited with having delivered 70 years of peace and security.
Other recurring propositions are that the rules-based order has both constrained the use of power and depends on US power; that it could shape China’s rise and be shaped by China; and that it must be saved and must change.
...although (Australian Foreign Minister Marise) Payne’s speech in June (2020) was all about the rules-based order, she didn’t use the phrase once.
...Her list of “three fundamental parts of the multilateral system” that Australia will focus on preserving was so sweeping that nothing much was left out. She cited:
(1) the rules that protect sovereignty, preserve peace and curb excessive use of power, and enable international trade and investment;
(2) the international standards related to health and pandemics, to transport, telecommunications and other issues that underpin the global economy, and which will be vital to a post-Covid-19 economic recovery; and thirdly,
(3) the norms that underpin universal human rights, gender equality and the rule of law.
Payne extended the concept by highlighting – correctly – the importance of often-overlooked technical bodies. They set ostensibly apolitical standards on “civil aviation, maritime transport, intellectual property, telecommunications, agriculture”. Unfortunately, there was little detail provided about her department’s audit of multilateral institutions, but Payne clearly recognised that these bodes are now frequent sites of ideological competition (chiefly with China, although she wasn’t that specific). She declared that “we must stand up for our values and bring our influence to bear in these institutions to … preserve the open character of international institutions based on universal values and transparency”.
Managing great power relations
...the rules-based order can also be understood, less ideologically, as a mechanism for managing competition between states with divergent values.
...Michèle Flournoy, widely touted as a Secretary for Defence in a future Biden administration, told the US Studies Centre that: " We don’t have a real risk-reduction framework with China, we don’t have an “incidents at sea” agreement, we don’t have the kinds of measures that were put in place back in the days of US-Soviet tensions … this is not something that I think will be well received if it is just the US approaching China. I think a number of countries need to approach China together to say “look, the risk is too high, we need to agree on some standards, some norms, some procedures to reduce the level of risk and miscalculation."
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/what-does-rules-based-order-mean
___________________________________________________
United Nations Charter (full text)
Preamble
Chapter I: Purposes and Principles
...Article 2
The Organization and its Members, in pursuit of the Purposes stated in Article 1, shall act in accordance with the following Principles.
1. The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members.
2. All Members, in order to ensure to all of them the rights and benefits resulting from membership, shall fulfill in good faith the obligations assumed by them in accordance with the present Charter.
3. All Members shall settle their international disputes by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security, and justice, are not endangered.
4. All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.
5. All Members shall give the United Nations every assistance in any action it takes in accordance with the present Charter, and shall refrain from giving assistance to any state against which the United Nations is taking preventive or enforcement action.
6. The Organization shall ensure that states which are not Members of the United Nations act in accordance with these Principles so far as may be necessary for the maintenance of international peace and security.
7. Nothing contained in the present Charter shall authorize the United Nations to intervene in matters which are essentially within the domestic jurisdiction of any state or shall require the Members to submit such matters to settlement under the present Charter; but this principle shall not prejudice the application of enforcement measures under Chapter Vll...
Chapter VI: Pacific Settlement of Disputes
Chapter VII: Action with Respect to Threats to the Peace, Breaches of the Peace, and Acts of Aggression...(Security Council, where USSR/Russia has permanent membership, is central)...
Chapter VIII: Regional Arrangements (nothing precludes if consistent with the Purposes and Principles of the United Nations)...
https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter/full-text
89margd
Michael McFaul McFaul | 12:14 AM · May 25, 2022:
(Stanford prof. US Ambassador to Russia from 2012 to 2014. From Cold War to Hot Peace)
In 2014, appeasers hoped that giving Putin Crimea and Donbas would produce peace. It didn't work. 8 years later, he invaded Ukraine. Why on earth do people think today that giving Putin more of Ukraine will produce peace? Illogical.
(Stanford prof. US Ambassador to Russia from 2012 to 2014. From Cold War to Hot Peace)
In 2014, appeasers hoped that giving Putin Crimea and Donbas would produce peace. It didn't work. 8 years later, he invaded Ukraine. Why on earth do people think today that giving Putin more of Ukraine will produce peace? Illogical.
90margd
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 6:21 AM · May 25, 2022:
( with comments at https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1529407252855148544 )
⚡️Russia offers unblocking Ukrainian ports in exchange for lifting Western sanctions.
Russian Deputy FM Andrey Rudenko said Moscow wants the removal of sanctions on Russian exports and financial transactions in exchange for a corridor for Ukraine to be able to export grains.
( with comments at https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1529407252855148544 )
⚡️Russia offers unblocking Ukrainian ports in exchange for lifting Western sanctions.
Russian Deputy FM Andrey Rudenko said Moscow wants the removal of sanctions on Russian exports and financial transactions in exchange for a corridor for Ukraine to be able to export grains.
91margd
Incoming Russian rocket fire, outgoing Ukrainian artillery fire. Fierce battles rage north of Kharkiv.
2:01 ( https://twitter.com/TreyYingst/status/1529180078474776577 )
- Trey Yingst @TreyYingst | 3:18 PM · May 24, 2022:
Foreign Correspondent: @FoxNews
Cameraman: Vic David
Local producer: Bohdan Glushko
Editor: Ronen Shpizman
Security/Logistics: Dane Kenny
___________________________________________
⚡️Zelensky: 'Russia will also have to leave Crimea.'
President Zelensky said during his daily address that Russia will also have to leave Kherson, Melitopol, Enerhodar, Mariupol, and "all other cities and communities where they are still pretending to be the owners.”
- The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent6:47 PM · May 24, 2022
___________________________________________
Even before #Russia launched its attack on #Ukraine, Estonian Prime Minister @kajakallas
warned Western leaders not to make any concessions to the Kremlin, calling to mind a 3-point negotiation tactic the Soviet Union used to apply.
0:52 ( https://twitter.com/MunSecConf/status/1512451999622643714 )
MSC 2022: Kaja Kallas on Soviet Negotiation Tactics
At the Munich Security Conference 2022, Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas explained the negotiation tactics of the Soviet Union in light of Russia's present-day demands to the West.
- Munich Security Conference @MunSecConf | 11:27 AM · Apr 8, 2022
--------------------------------------------------------------
Munich Security Conference @MunSecConf | 11:27 AM · Apr 8, 2022:
Re-watch the full interview with (Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas) and @AnaKasparian
of @TheYoungTurks at the #MSC2022 YouTube Studio.
21:45 ( https://twitter.com/MunSecConf/status/1512452117641977857 )
youtube.com
yourMSC Studio #MSC2022: Talk with Kaja Kallas & Ana Kasparian
2:01 ( https://twitter.com/TreyYingst/status/1529180078474776577 )
- Trey Yingst @TreyYingst | 3:18 PM · May 24, 2022:
Foreign Correspondent: @FoxNews
Cameraman: Vic David
Local producer: Bohdan Glushko
Editor: Ronen Shpizman
Security/Logistics: Dane Kenny
___________________________________________
⚡️Zelensky: 'Russia will also have to leave Crimea.'
President Zelensky said during his daily address that Russia will also have to leave Kherson, Melitopol, Enerhodar, Mariupol, and "all other cities and communities where they are still pretending to be the owners.”
- The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent6:47 PM · May 24, 2022
___________________________________________
Even before #Russia launched its attack on #Ukraine, Estonian Prime Minister @kajakallas
warned Western leaders not to make any concessions to the Kremlin, calling to mind a 3-point negotiation tactic the Soviet Union used to apply.
0:52 ( https://twitter.com/MunSecConf/status/1512451999622643714 )
MSC 2022: Kaja Kallas on Soviet Negotiation Tactics
At the Munich Security Conference 2022, Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas explained the negotiation tactics of the Soviet Union in light of Russia's present-day demands to the West.
- Munich Security Conference @MunSecConf | 11:27 AM · Apr 8, 2022
--------------------------------------------------------------
Munich Security Conference @MunSecConf | 11:27 AM · Apr 8, 2022:
Re-watch the full interview with (Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas) and @AnaKasparian
of @TheYoungTurks at the #MSC2022 YouTube Studio.
21:45 ( https://twitter.com/MunSecConf/status/1512452117641977857 )
youtube.com
yourMSC Studio #MSC2022: Talk with Kaja Kallas & Ana Kasparian
92margd
>90 margd:
⚡️ UK (Ukraine) rejects Russia's offer to unblock Ukrainian ports in exchange for lifting sanctions.
Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called Moscow’s proposal “blackmail,” adding that those politicians who may think of accepting it should first visit the graves of killed Ukrainian children.
- The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 11:01 AM · May 25, 2022
--------------------------------------------------------
Ukraine's Kuleba Says Russia Trying Blackmail With Black Sea Blockade Offer
Reuters | May 25, 2022
(Reporting by Sabine Siebold; Editing by Alexander Smith)
DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) - Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Wednesday that Russia was trying to "blackmail" the international community by raising the possibility of an offer to unblock Black Sea ports in return for a relaxation of sanctions.
The Interfax news agency earlier cited Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko as saying Moscow is ready to provide a humanitarian corridor for vessels carrying food to leave Ukraine, in return for the lifting of some sanctions.
Ukraine's Black Sea ports have been blocked since Russia sent thousands of troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24 and more than 20 million tonnes of grain are stuck in silos in the country.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-05-25/ukraines-kuleba-says-russi...
⚡️ UK (Ukraine) rejects Russia's offer to unblock Ukrainian ports in exchange for lifting sanctions.
Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called Moscow’s proposal “blackmail,” adding that those politicians who may think of accepting it should first visit the graves of killed Ukrainian children.
- The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 11:01 AM · May 25, 2022
--------------------------------------------------------
Ukraine's Kuleba Says Russia Trying Blackmail With Black Sea Blockade Offer
Reuters | May 25, 2022
(Reporting by Sabine Siebold; Editing by Alexander Smith)
DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) - Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Wednesday that Russia was trying to "blackmail" the international community by raising the possibility of an offer to unblock Black Sea ports in return for a relaxation of sanctions.
The Interfax news agency earlier cited Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko as saying Moscow is ready to provide a humanitarian corridor for vessels carrying food to leave Ukraine, in return for the lifting of some sanctions.
Ukraine's Black Sea ports have been blocked since Russia sent thousands of troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24 and more than 20 million tonnes of grain are stuck in silos in the country.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-05-25/ukraines-kuleba-says-russi...
93margd
🇪🇪🇺🇦 The wonderful country of #Estonia, population 1.3 million, has sent well over 1/3 of all its weapons to #Ukraine. And now this incredible moral support. I am speechless. Real humanity. Learn more about this Estonian music project: https://estoniasingsforukraine.org *
3:23 ( https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1528876122967945217 )
- Igor Sushko @igorsushko | 7:10 PM · May 23, 2022
American Racecar Driver from #Ukraine - Japanese SUPER GT
--------------------------------------------------------------------
* Thousands of Estonian singers came together at the Tallinn Song Festival Grounds to sing together "Oi u luzi chervona kalyna" (“The Red Viburnum in the Meadow”) for Ukraine. Choral singing has always been a powerful cultural phenomenon that Estonians have repeatedly used in their own fight for freedom. Singers came from all corners of Estonia to send the power of song to help Ukranians in their fight for freedom.
3:23 ( https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1528876122967945217 )
- Igor Sushko @igorsushko | 7:10 PM · May 23, 2022
American Racecar Driver from #Ukraine - Japanese SUPER GT
--------------------------------------------------------------------
* Thousands of Estonian singers came together at the Tallinn Song Festival Grounds to sing together "Oi u luzi chervona kalyna" (“The Red Viburnum in the Meadow”) for Ukraine. Choral singing has always been a powerful cultural phenomenon that Estonians have repeatedly used in their own fight for freedom. Singers came from all corners of Estonia to send the power of song to help Ukranians in their fight for freedom.
94John5918
Russia in Ukraine: What’s Religion Got to Do with It? (Catholic Peacebuilding Network)
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly invoked religion in an effort to justify the Russian invasion of Ukraine. How, specifically, has Putin used religion—and in particular, Russian Orthodox Christianity—in his rhetoric? To what extent has it helped him build support for the war? How do such actions fit into a larger global context where political leaders at times seek to instrumentalize religion for ostensibly secular ends? And how is religion helping to address the human cost of the war, as religious NGOs provide assistance for Ukrainian refugees? In this discussion, hear insights from a panel of experts, who explored these questions together. ..
95John5918
Russian mum's fight to save sons from Putin's war (BBC)
When Marina's two sons were conscripted last winter to the Russian army she welcomed the idea of her children doing a year's military service. "I told them that they had to serve," Marina tells me, "it was their duty to the motherland." But a few weeks later she began to worry. Her sons had been deployed to an area close to the border with Ukraine... Eventually someone at her sons' military unit admitted that they were, indeed, in Ukraine... "What on earth are you talking about? They had no plans to sign a contract," was her response. "They've been in the army for three months. They've only held a gun once. They've only been to a firing range once. Most of the time they've been shovelling snow." "I wrote to the prosecutor-general's office asking to investigate. I told them there was no way my sons could have signed military contracts. I was certain. Other mothers wrote, too. They all knew their children"...
Marina's official complaint was upheld. The Russian authorities confirmed that her sons had not signed military contracts. Both sons were returned to Russia... "When I saw him he looked a total mess. The lads that came back from there were so thin, dirty and exhausted. Their clothes were torn. My son said: 'It's better that you don't know what happened there.' But all that mattered to me was that he had come back alive"...
96John5918
115 Russian national guard soldiers sacked for refusing to fight in Ukraine (Guardian)
Ukraine needs to face reality and talk to Putin - Zelenskiy (Star)
More than 100 Russian national guardsmen have been fired for refusing to fight in Ukraine, court documents show, in what looks to be the clearest indication yet of dissent among some parts of security forces over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine...
Ukraine needs to face reality and talk to Putin - Zelenskiy (Star)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday said Ukraine was not eager to talk to Russia's Vladimir Putin but that it has to face the reality that this will likely be necessary to end the war. "There are things to discuss with the Russian leader. I'm not telling you that to me our people are eager to talk to him, but we have to face the realities of what we are living through," Zelenskiy said in an address to an Indonesian think tank. "What do we want from this meeting... We want our lives back... We want to reclaim the life of a sovereign country within its own territory," he said, adding that Russia did not appear to be ready yet for serious peace talks...
97margd
A Whole Age of Warfare Sank With the Moskva
A fierce debate is raging within the U.S. Marine Corps about what comes next.
Elliot Ackerman | May 22, 2022
...(Marine commandant, General David Berger) believes a new age of war is upon us. In “Force Design 2030,” he puts the following sentence in bold: “We must acknowledge the impacts of proliferated precision long-range fires, mines, and other smart weapons, and seek innovative ways to overcome these threat capabilities.” The weapons General Berger refers to include the same family of anti-platform weapons Ukrainians are using to incinerate Russian tanks, shoot down Russian helicopters, and sink Russian warships. The successes against a platform-centric Russian Goliath by an anti-platform-centric Ukrainian David have elicited cheers in the West, but what we are witnessing in Ukraine may well be a prelude to the besting of our own American Goliath...
Like its Russian counterpart, the American military has long been built around platforms. To pivot away from a platform-centric view of warfare is both a cultural challenge—what does it mean to be a fighter pilot without a jet, a tanker without a tank, or a sailor without a ship?—and a resource challenge. It asks the U.S. military, as well as the U.S. defense industry, to divest itself of legacy capabilities like, for example, a $13 billion Ford-class aircraft carrier, in order to invest in new, potentially less profitable technologies like, say, $6,000 Switchblade drones that can kill tanks.
Divestment is central to Berger’s strategic vision. Several months ago, he announced that the Marine Corps would reduce its size. Several of its infantry battalions, aircraft squadrons, artillery batteries, and every last one of its tanks would go. According to Berger, the Marine Corps is “operating under the assumption that we will not receive additional resources” and “must divest certain existing capabilities to free resources for essential new capabilities.”...
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/ukraine-russia-moskva-military...
A fierce debate is raging within the U.S. Marine Corps about what comes next.
Elliot Ackerman | May 22, 2022
...(Marine commandant, General David Berger) believes a new age of war is upon us. In “Force Design 2030,” he puts the following sentence in bold: “We must acknowledge the impacts of proliferated precision long-range fires, mines, and other smart weapons, and seek innovative ways to overcome these threat capabilities.” The weapons General Berger refers to include the same family of anti-platform weapons Ukrainians are using to incinerate Russian tanks, shoot down Russian helicopters, and sink Russian warships. The successes against a platform-centric Russian Goliath by an anti-platform-centric Ukrainian David have elicited cheers in the West, but what we are witnessing in Ukraine may well be a prelude to the besting of our own American Goliath...
Like its Russian counterpart, the American military has long been built around platforms. To pivot away from a platform-centric view of warfare is both a cultural challenge—what does it mean to be a fighter pilot without a jet, a tanker without a tank, or a sailor without a ship?—and a resource challenge. It asks the U.S. military, as well as the U.S. defense industry, to divest itself of legacy capabilities like, for example, a $13 billion Ford-class aircraft carrier, in order to invest in new, potentially less profitable technologies like, say, $6,000 Switchblade drones that can kill tanks.
Divestment is central to Berger’s strategic vision. Several months ago, he announced that the Marine Corps would reduce its size. Several of its infantry battalions, aircraft squadrons, artillery batteries, and every last one of its tanks would go. According to Berger, the Marine Corps is “operating under the assumption that we will not receive additional resources” and “must divest certain existing capabilities to free resources for essential new capabilities.”...
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/ukraine-russia-moskva-military...
98margd
The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 1:01 PM · May 27, 2022:
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1530232647888293888
⚡️ Meduza: Kremlin still discussing attacking Kyiv.
Independent Russian media outlet Meduza quoted undisclosed sources saying the Kremlin is discussing a possible assault on Kyiv and even hopes for a full-scale victory by fall.
According to Meduza’s sources, Russian leadership is hoping Europe will get tired of helping Ukraine and that bloc members will have to agree with Russia on gas and oil before the heating season.
(margd: plus RU has locked up the world's bread basket, the basturds.)
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1530232647888293888
⚡️ Meduza: Kremlin still discussing attacking Kyiv.
Independent Russian media outlet Meduza quoted undisclosed sources saying the Kremlin is discussing a possible assault on Kyiv and even hopes for a full-scale victory by fall.
According to Meduza’s sources, Russian leadership is hoping Europe will get tired of helping Ukraine and that bloc members will have to agree with Russia on gas and oil before the heating season.
(margd: plus RU has locked up the world's bread basket, the basturds.)
99margd
Ukraine Now Media @UkraineNowMedia | 2:03 AM · May 25, 2022:
📷🇺🇦The whole road to Izyum, Kharkiv region looks like this.
In the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it was called the "Road of Death".
Photo-aerial of rd and fields
https://twitter.com/UkraineNowMedia/status/1529342265801314304
📷🇺🇦The whole road to Izyum, Kharkiv region looks like this.
In the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it was called the "Road of Death".
Photo-aerial of rd and fields
https://twitter.com/UkraineNowMedia/status/1529342265801314304
100margd
Andrew Stroehlein @astroehlein | 1:44 AM · May 30, 2022:
European Media Director, Human Rights Watch, @HRW .
🧵 https://twitter.com/astroehlein/status/1531149563125551105
In a couple weeks, Human Rights Watch will publish a new report on Russia's forced deportations of Ukrainians out of #Ukraine and into Russia.
Forcible transfers are prohibited under the “laws of war”. ie: #RussianWarCrimes.
In the meantime, here's some useful reading…
Start with this @theipaper investigation by @deankirby_ :
"Putin sends Mariupol survivors to remote corners of Russia as investigation reveals network of 66 camps"
https://inews.co.uk/news/putin-mariupol-survivors-remote-corners-russia-investig...
Map-resettlement camps
https://twitter.com/astroehlein/status/1531150138118381568/photo/1
2 key reports from guardian:
"Hundreds of Ukrainians forcibly deported to Russia, say Mariupol women" - @PjotrSauer : https://theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/04/hundreds-of-ukrainians-forcibly-deport...
"Filtration & forced deportation: Mariupol survivors on lasting terrors of Russia’s assault" - @shaunwalker7 : https://theguardian.com/world/2022/may/26/filtration-and-forced-deportation-mari...
Excerpt- https://twitter.com/astroehlein/status/1531151897649942529/photo/1
"One Ukrainian family’s perilous journey through Russia’s ‘filtration camps’" by @ChristopherJM
for @politico .
Excerpt - https://politico.com/news/2022/05/26/ukraine-filtration-camps-00034862
There are also stories about how, after "filtration", some Russians are helping illegally transferred Ukrainians reach safety in the EU.
From Telegraph : https://telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/27/ukrainians-make-treacherous-journe...
From @ipaper : https://inews.co.uk/news/russian-c
Excerpt - https://twitter.com/astroehlein/status/1531156013361123328/photo/1
The scale of what's happening seems enormous.
I don't know if it's "over 1 million people", but Lavrov has bizarrely given a Russian confession to the media of massive war crimes in #Ukraine.
https://reuters.com/world/more-than-1-mln-people-evacuated-ukraine-russia-since-...
Excerpt - https://twitter.com/astroehlein/status/1531158144902172672/photo/1
A transfer is still forcible even when a person "volunteers" because they fear consequences such as violence, duress, or detention if they remain, and the occupying power is taking advantage of a coercive environment to conduct the transfer.
Under international humanitarian law, the transfer of a civilian, individually or en masse, is not voluntary, simply because the civilian agrees to it, or even requests it.
The key issue is the genuine voluntariness of a displacement.
In other words, if you don’t really have a choice, you’re not really “volunteering” for anything, and it’s forcible.
Also, when the civilian population has the possibility to evacuate to other areas under the control of their own forces, they should be allowed to do so and not forcibly displaced to other areas under control of occupying forces.
Russia's forced transfers of civilian population from occupied areas of #Ukraine are war crimes.
It's strange that Lavrov or any other top Russian official would brag about them.
Human Rights Watch's full report on the issue will be published in June.
European Media Director, Human Rights Watch, @HRW .
🧵 https://twitter.com/astroehlein/status/1531149563125551105
In a couple weeks, Human Rights Watch will publish a new report on Russia's forced deportations of Ukrainians out of #Ukraine and into Russia.
Forcible transfers are prohibited under the “laws of war”. ie: #RussianWarCrimes.
In the meantime, here's some useful reading…
Start with this @theipaper investigation by @deankirby_ :
"Putin sends Mariupol survivors to remote corners of Russia as investigation reveals network of 66 camps"
https://inews.co.uk/news/putin-mariupol-survivors-remote-corners-russia-investig...
Map-resettlement camps
https://twitter.com/astroehlein/status/1531150138118381568/photo/1
2 key reports from guardian:
"Hundreds of Ukrainians forcibly deported to Russia, say Mariupol women" - @PjotrSauer : https://theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/04/hundreds-of-ukrainians-forcibly-deport...
"Filtration & forced deportation: Mariupol survivors on lasting terrors of Russia’s assault" - @shaunwalker7 : https://theguardian.com/world/2022/may/26/filtration-and-forced-deportation-mari...
Excerpt- https://twitter.com/astroehlein/status/1531151897649942529/photo/1
"One Ukrainian family’s perilous journey through Russia’s ‘filtration camps’" by @ChristopherJM
for @politico .
Excerpt - https://politico.com/news/2022/05/26/ukraine-filtration-camps-00034862
There are also stories about how, after "filtration", some Russians are helping illegally transferred Ukrainians reach safety in the EU.
From Telegraph : https://telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/27/ukrainians-make-treacherous-journe...
From @ipaper : https://inews.co.uk/news/russian-c
Excerpt - https://twitter.com/astroehlein/status/1531156013361123328/photo/1
The scale of what's happening seems enormous.
I don't know if it's "over 1 million people", but Lavrov has bizarrely given a Russian confession to the media of massive war crimes in #Ukraine.
https://reuters.com/world/more-than-1-mln-people-evacuated-ukraine-russia-since-...
Excerpt - https://twitter.com/astroehlein/status/1531158144902172672/photo/1
A transfer is still forcible even when a person "volunteers" because they fear consequences such as violence, duress, or detention if they remain, and the occupying power is taking advantage of a coercive environment to conduct the transfer.
Under international humanitarian law, the transfer of a civilian, individually or en masse, is not voluntary, simply because the civilian agrees to it, or even requests it.
The key issue is the genuine voluntariness of a displacement.
In other words, if you don’t really have a choice, you’re not really “volunteering” for anything, and it’s forcible.
Also, when the civilian population has the possibility to evacuate to other areas under the control of their own forces, they should be allowed to do so and not forcibly displaced to other areas under control of occupying forces.
Russia's forced transfers of civilian population from occupied areas of #Ukraine are war crimes.
It's strange that Lavrov or any other top Russian official would brag about them.
Human Rights Watch's full report on the issue will be published in June.
101margd
Nine police officers from 🇺🇦KORD special died in the Zaporizhia Obl, defending it from 🇷🇺invaders.
Thousands of ppl came out and knelt, making a living corridor, on their final journey home
🎥https://t.me/Tsaplienko/9123
1:32 ( https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1530791045834780672 )
- Euromaidan Press @EuromaidanPress | 2:00 AM · May 29, 2022
Thousands of ppl came out and knelt, making a living corridor, on their final journey home
🎥https://t.me/Tsaplienko/9123
1:32 ( https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1530791045834780672 )
- Euromaidan Press @EuromaidanPress | 2:00 AM · May 29, 2022
102margd
Melaniya Podolyak @MelaniePodolyak | 5:14 AM · May 29, 2022:
https://twitter.com/MelaniePodolyak/status/1530839963004194817
A Russian, who stole a PS4 from a man’s home in Mariupol is now writing to him via e-mail demanding the account password so he can access games on that PS.
Just let that sink in.
Quote Tweet
Ostapenko @OstAnatoliy · May 29
У людини з Маріуполя русня вкрала пс4, а тепер пише на пошту і просить пароль від акаунту.
Image ( https://twitter.com/OstAnatoliy/status/1530817634060607493/photo/1 )
Image ( https://twitter.com/OstAnatoliy/status/1530817634060607493/photo/2 )
---------------------------------------------------------
(Translation)
Alex Red@AlphaBettor
Russian stole a ps4 from a man from Mariupol, and now he writes to the mail and asks for a password from the account.
Image ( https://twitter.com/AlphaBettor/status/1530833400940175360/photo/1 )
Image ( https://twitter.com/AlphaBettor/status/1530833400940175360/photo/2 )
A @DIYKitCatharsis | 5:17 AM · May 29, 2022:
the correct translation is ''will answer or are you dead?''
(not "will you answer or die?")
https://twitter.com/MelaniePodolyak/status/1530839963004194817
A Russian, who stole a PS4 from a man’s home in Mariupol is now writing to him via e-mail demanding the account password so he can access games on that PS.
Just let that sink in.
Quote Tweet
Ostapenko @OstAnatoliy · May 29
У людини з Маріуполя русня вкрала пс4, а тепер пише на пошту і просить пароль від акаунту.
Image ( https://twitter.com/OstAnatoliy/status/1530817634060607493/photo/1 )
Image ( https://twitter.com/OstAnatoliy/status/1530817634060607493/photo/2 )
---------------------------------------------------------
(Translation)
Alex Red@AlphaBettor
Russian stole a ps4 from a man from Mariupol, and now he writes to the mail and asks for a password from the account.
Image ( https://twitter.com/AlphaBettor/status/1530833400940175360/photo/1 )
Image ( https://twitter.com/AlphaBettor/status/1530833400940175360/photo/2 )
A @DIYKitCatharsis | 5:17 AM · May 29, 2022:
the correct translation is ''will answer or are you dead?''
(not "will you answer or die?")
103margd
Another Colorado low is frustrating Manitoba farmers who can't seed their fields
CBC News | May 31st 2022
Wettest spring in southern Manitoba in more than a century; 'very trying' season, crop farmer says...
With an estimated 30-50 mm of rain expected to fall in some parts of southern Manitoba over the next two days, (Bill Campbell, president of Keystone Agriculture Producers) concedes that there will likely be a significant amount of unseeded fields in the province this season. "Producers are trying their best but even when they are getting out in the field, they are leaving areas — probably 5-20 per cent of their fields — they are having to leave...We are just losing day after after day, which turns into week after week, and we're unable to travel on our fields...I think that the soil temp is improving but it's certainly not a warm soil, and we're getting close to that window for the crop insurance deadline."
The crop insurance deadline for most crops is June 15, with a five-day extension available with reduced coverage. The deadline for long-season crops is Wednesday.
...He planned to plant peas and soybeans this season, but due to the wet conditions, Campbell says he's opting to go with wheat, barley, oats and canola...
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/another-colorado-low-is-frustr...
CBC News | May 31st 2022
Wettest spring in southern Manitoba in more than a century; 'very trying' season, crop farmer says...
With an estimated 30-50 mm of rain expected to fall in some parts of southern Manitoba over the next two days, (Bill Campbell, president of Keystone Agriculture Producers) concedes that there will likely be a significant amount of unseeded fields in the province this season. "Producers are trying their best but even when they are getting out in the field, they are leaving areas — probably 5-20 per cent of their fields — they are having to leave...We are just losing day after after day, which turns into week after week, and we're unable to travel on our fields...I think that the soil temp is improving but it's certainly not a warm soil, and we're getting close to that window for the crop insurance deadline."
The crop insurance deadline for most crops is June 15, with a five-day extension available with reduced coverage. The deadline for long-season crops is Wednesday.
...He planned to plant peas and soybeans this season, but due to the wet conditions, Campbell says he's opting to go with wheat, barley, oats and canola...
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/another-colorado-low-is-frustr...
104margd
Explainer of types of weapons that UA has been requesting and that the US may or may not provide.
Mark Hertling @MarkHertling | 12:53 PM · May 31, 2022
Retired general, US Army in Europe
🧵 https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1531680183895326720
Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine is not getting as much attention right now because of competing stories in the US.
But I will attempt to clarify the "MLRS issue" that seems to be the primary story on the war right now.
An "artillery" thread to help clarify. 1/13
1st, "MLRS" (Multiple Launch Rocket System) is:
-1 of 2 types: M270 MLRS or M142 HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System)
-A system firing many types of missiles (referred to as FOM, or "Family of Missiles")
-An onboard fire control & commo package
-Resupply trucks. 2/
A little important history:
-MLRS (M270) was developed in the 80's to specifically counter Soviet artillery advantage.
-M142 was designed in the late 90's for Airborne & Stryker forces:
-fast moving
-quicker strike
-smaller punch
-easier to resupply & maintain. 3/
Below are pictures of the 2 different systems.
Note the obvious:
-the M270 has two missile pods (12 missiles), the M142 has one pod (6 missiles).
-the M270 is on tracks, the M142 is on wheels.
Those 2 simple things make a world of difference in the Ukraine fight. 4/
Photo-M270 ( https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1531680192413978629/photo/1 )
Photo-M142 ( https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1531680192413978629/photo/2 )
There are a BOATLOAD of different types of missiles (and rockets) that can be fired from these systems.
They vary in 3 ares: range, precision, and payload/effect.
Won't go into the details of all of them, but ranges vary from 32 km (20 mies) to 300+km (170+ miles). 5/
And remember, these systems were meant to counter Soviet Artillery.
Early rounds varied:
1. High explosive munitions.
2. "DP-ICM," or "Dual Purpose, Improved Conventional Munitions," (think cluster bombs, dozens of bomblets that come out of canisters ...6/
...over a target to destroy equipment or kill personnel (like dozens of small grenades)...see picture below.
3. Mines, which deploy like DP-ICM over an area to prevent the use of that area by enemy
4. Very high explosive
5. Tungsten ball (which replaced outlawed cluster bomb) 7/
Photo DP-ICM ( https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1531680199229808641/photo/1 )
There's also GMLRS (G for "guided" or precision). This missile also comes in a variety of types:
1. The GMLRS-U (unitary): 200 lb warhead, 40 km range.
2. GMLRS-AW (alternative warhead): 70 km with several different warheads
3. ER-GMLRS (extended range):150km, maneuverable. 8/
Photo-GMLRS ( https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1531680202476163072/photo/1 )
There's also a rocket (not a missile) called ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System).
It's a surface to surface missile system with a range of over 300 km (190 miles).
This is NOT a cruise missile, though it is extremely precise...even against moving targets...on land and sea. 9/
Someone will ask the difference between rocket & missile...
Rockets use an engine to propel itself at high speeds while missiles are typically rockets that are guided and contain explosives of some kind.
But with GPS and laser-spotting, these definitions are fuzzier. 10/
A disclaimer...before anyone gets upset, all - & I mean ALL - this information is open source. But sometimes you need to be nearby, see the effects, or use this stuff to understand it.
While not an artilleryman, I've been near, seen effects, & commanded these units in combat. 11/
Many Ukrainians have been demanding these kinds of systems for months.
But now you may understand there's a difference between "capabilities" and "systems."
Differences between ranges for hitting long range enemy targets, or going longer ranges across cross borders. 12/
Sometimes some in the media are also confusing "rocket systems" with "rockets" and what @potus
and nato are willing to provide.
Hopefully this thread explains some of the more details that many Americans may not understand. 13/13
Mark Hertling @MarkHertling | 12:53 PM · May 31, 2022
Retired general, US Army in Europe
🧵 https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1531680183895326720
Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine is not getting as much attention right now because of competing stories in the US.
But I will attempt to clarify the "MLRS issue" that seems to be the primary story on the war right now.
An "artillery" thread to help clarify. 1/13
1st, "MLRS" (Multiple Launch Rocket System) is:
-1 of 2 types: M270 MLRS or M142 HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System)
-A system firing many types of missiles (referred to as FOM, or "Family of Missiles")
-An onboard fire control & commo package
-Resupply trucks. 2/
A little important history:
-MLRS (M270) was developed in the 80's to specifically counter Soviet artillery advantage.
-M142 was designed in the late 90's for Airborne & Stryker forces:
-fast moving
-quicker strike
-smaller punch
-easier to resupply & maintain. 3/
Below are pictures of the 2 different systems.
Note the obvious:
-the M270 has two missile pods (12 missiles), the M142 has one pod (6 missiles).
-the M270 is on tracks, the M142 is on wheels.
Those 2 simple things make a world of difference in the Ukraine fight. 4/
Photo-M270 ( https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1531680192413978629/photo/1 )
Photo-M142 ( https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1531680192413978629/photo/2 )
There are a BOATLOAD of different types of missiles (and rockets) that can be fired from these systems.
They vary in 3 ares: range, precision, and payload/effect.
Won't go into the details of all of them, but ranges vary from 32 km (20 mies) to 300+km (170+ miles). 5/
And remember, these systems were meant to counter Soviet Artillery.
Early rounds varied:
1. High explosive munitions.
2. "DP-ICM," or "Dual Purpose, Improved Conventional Munitions," (think cluster bombs, dozens of bomblets that come out of canisters ...6/
...over a target to destroy equipment or kill personnel (like dozens of small grenades)...see picture below.
3. Mines, which deploy like DP-ICM over an area to prevent the use of that area by enemy
4. Very high explosive
5. Tungsten ball (which replaced outlawed cluster bomb) 7/
Photo DP-ICM ( https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1531680199229808641/photo/1 )
There's also GMLRS (G for "guided" or precision). This missile also comes in a variety of types:
1. The GMLRS-U (unitary): 200 lb warhead, 40 km range.
2. GMLRS-AW (alternative warhead): 70 km with several different warheads
3. ER-GMLRS (extended range):150km, maneuverable. 8/
Photo-GMLRS ( https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1531680202476163072/photo/1 )
There's also a rocket (not a missile) called ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System).
It's a surface to surface missile system with a range of over 300 km (190 miles).
This is NOT a cruise missile, though it is extremely precise...even against moving targets...on land and sea. 9/
Someone will ask the difference between rocket & missile...
Rockets use an engine to propel itself at high speeds while missiles are typically rockets that are guided and contain explosives of some kind.
But with GPS and laser-spotting, these definitions are fuzzier. 10/
A disclaimer...before anyone gets upset, all - & I mean ALL - this information is open source. But sometimes you need to be nearby, see the effects, or use this stuff to understand it.
While not an artilleryman, I've been near, seen effects, & commanded these units in combat. 11/
Many Ukrainians have been demanding these kinds of systems for months.
But now you may understand there's a difference between "capabilities" and "systems."
Differences between ranges for hitting long range enemy targets, or going longer ranges across cross borders. 12/
Sometimes some in the media are also confusing "rocket systems" with "rockets" and what @potus
and nato are willing to provide.
Hopefully this thread explains some of the more details that many Americans may not understand. 13/13
105John5918
Mass civil legal action to seek compensation for Ukrainian war victims (Guardian)
Ukraine jails two Russian soldiers for shelling villages (Guardian)
Ukraine war: Stories of torture emerging out of Kherson (BBC)
Religious Just Peace Delegation to Kyiv, May 25th (Franciscan Action Network)
A consortium of Ukrainian and international lawyers is preparing to launch a mass civil legal action against the Russian state, as well as private military contractors and businesspeople backing the Russian war effort, in an attempt to gain financial compensation for millions of Ukrainian victims of the war, the Guardian can reveal. The team, made up of hundreds of lawyers and several major law firms, plans to bring “multiple actions in different jurisdictions against different targets”, including the UK and the US, said Jason McCue, a London-based lawyer who is coordinating the initiative, in an interview in Kyiv. The plan is to use UK and US judgments to seize Russian assets across the globe...
Ukraine jails two Russian soldiers for shelling villages (Guardian)
Two Russian soldiers have each been sentenced to more than 11 years in jail after a court in central Ukraine found them guilty of firing artillery at civilian areas. The verdict after the trial in the Poltava region came one week after another court in the capital, Kyiv, gave a 21-year-old Russian soldier a life sentence – the country’s first judicial reckoning on Russia’s invasion. The servicemen convicted on Tuesday, Alexander Bobikin and Alexander Ivanov, were handed sentences of 11 years and six months under legislation against “violating the laws and customs of war”...
Ukraine war: Stories of torture emerging out of Kherson (BBC)
While his homemade borsch bubbles on the hob, Olexander Guz shows me pictures of his bruised body on his phone. The injuries, he says, were inflicted by the Russian authorities. "They put a bag on my head," Olexander tells me. "The Russians threatened that I would not have kidneys left." The BBC has gathered several graphic testimonies of residents in Kherson who say they were tortured...
Religious Just Peace Delegation to Kyiv, May 25th (Franciscan Action Network)
A high-level delegation of religious leaders held a prayer service to contribute to ending aggression against Ukraine, the bombing of Ukrainian cities, and to pray for a just peace. The leaders arrived in Kyiv on Monday night after a 14-hour bus ride from Warsaw to Kyiv, Ukraine... In March, Mayor Vitali Klitschko of Kyiv, Ukraine’s besieged capital, issued a call to the religious leaders to come to Kyiv: “I make an appeal to the world’s spiritual leaders to take a stand and assume the moral function that is incumbent upon them, and to proudly assume the responsibility of their religions for peace,” said Klitschko... “Come to Kyiv to show their solidarity with the Ukrainian people. To show their compassion, and to join together in a spirit of harmony that my country and the whole world needs. Let us make Kyiv the capital of humanity, spirituality, and peace”... religious leaders from around the world have answered Klitschko’s plea. Seventeen religious leaders and people of faith from the major world are in Kyiv to engage in prayer, pastoral accompaniment, and distribution of humanitarian aid, as well as key encounters with peacebuilders, religious leaders, and political leaders...
106margd
>104 margd: contd.
President Biden: What America Will and Will Not Do in Ukraine
Joseph R. Biden Jr. | May 31, 2022
...America’s goal is straightforward: We want to see a democratic, independent, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine with the means to deter and defend itself against further aggression.
As President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has said, ultimately this war “will only definitively end through diplomacy.” Every negotiation reflects the facts on the ground. We have moved quickly to send Ukraine a significant amount of weaponry and ammunition so it can fight on the battlefield and be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table.
That’s why I’ve decided that we will provide the Ukrainians with more advanced rocket systems and munitions that will enable them to more precisely strike key targets on the battlefield in Ukraine.
...Americans will stay the course with the Ukrainian people because we understand that freedom is not free. That’s what we have always done whenever the enemies of freedom seek to bully and oppress innocent people, and it is what we are doing now. Vladimir Putin did not expect this degree of unity or the strength of our response. He was mistaken. If he expects that we will waver or fracture in the months to come, he is equally mistaken.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/31/opinion/biden-ukraine-strategy.html
_________________________________________________
Ukraine Has Promised U.S. Not to Fire New 50-Mile Range Rockets Into Russia
Tom O'Connor | 5/31/22
...Speaking to reporters on a press call Tuesday, (a senior official of President Joe Biden's administration) said that a new $700 million package of military assistance to Ukraine set to be announced Wednesday would include M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), which "allows the Ukrainians to range out to about 80 kilometers," or roughly 50 miles.
The official said that the latest tranche of U.S. support, which is now valued at more than $5 billion since Biden came into office in January 2021, was part of the president's plan "to provide security assistance to the Ukrainians that is above and beyond what we were already providing them to help defend their country."
"To that end, we are not encouraging or enabling Ukraine to strike beyond its borders," the official said. "We do not seek to prolong the war just to inflict pain on Russia."...
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-has-promised-us-not-fire-new-50-mile-range-rock...
_________________________________________________
Putin World Descends Into Fury Over New U.S. Rocket Delivery
THE AUDACITY
America’s latest gift to Ukraine has the Kremlin accusing the U.S. of adding “fuel to the fire.”
Shannon Vavra | Jun. 01, 2022
https://www.thedailybeast.com/moscow-descends-into-fury-over-us-himars-rocket-de...
__________________________________________________
Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 @IAPonomarenko | 10:19 AM · Jun 1, 2022:
Defense reporter with The Kyiv Independent. War, weapons, beer & heavy metal. A village guy from Donbas in a crusade for something better.
Russia says the U.S. supplies of heavy weaponry to Ukraine “may lead to direct clash between Russia and America.”
Oh believe me when I tell you, after they fought for 2 months to take Popasna from Ukraine, the last thing they now want is clashing with the U.S. military.
Pentagon vs. Congress tension builds over monitoring billions in Ukraine aid
Andrew Desiderio, Lara Seligman and Connor O’Brien | 06/02/2022
The Hill is closely watching how the Defense Department allocates the recently passed $40 billion in aid to Ukraine, aware it's been burned in the past...
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/02/congress-pentagon-ukraine-aid-oversight...
_________________________________________________
President Biden: What America Will and Will Not Do in Ukraine
Joseph R. Biden Jr. | May 31, 2022
...America’s goal is straightforward: We want to see a democratic, independent, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine with the means to deter and defend itself against further aggression.
As President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has said, ultimately this war “will only definitively end through diplomacy.” Every negotiation reflects the facts on the ground. We have moved quickly to send Ukraine a significant amount of weaponry and ammunition so it can fight on the battlefield and be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table.
That’s why I’ve decided that we will provide the Ukrainians with more advanced rocket systems and munitions that will enable them to more precisely strike key targets on the battlefield in Ukraine.
...Americans will stay the course with the Ukrainian people because we understand that freedom is not free. That’s what we have always done whenever the enemies of freedom seek to bully and oppress innocent people, and it is what we are doing now. Vladimir Putin did not expect this degree of unity or the strength of our response. He was mistaken. If he expects that we will waver or fracture in the months to come, he is equally mistaken.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/31/opinion/biden-ukraine-strategy.html
_________________________________________________
Ukraine Has Promised U.S. Not to Fire New 50-Mile Range Rockets Into Russia
Tom O'Connor | 5/31/22
...Speaking to reporters on a press call Tuesday, (a senior official of President Joe Biden's administration) said that a new $700 million package of military assistance to Ukraine set to be announced Wednesday would include M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), which "allows the Ukrainians to range out to about 80 kilometers," or roughly 50 miles.
The official said that the latest tranche of U.S. support, which is now valued at more than $5 billion since Biden came into office in January 2021, was part of the president's plan "to provide security assistance to the Ukrainians that is above and beyond what we were already providing them to help defend their country."
"To that end, we are not encouraging or enabling Ukraine to strike beyond its borders," the official said. "We do not seek to prolong the war just to inflict pain on Russia."...
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-has-promised-us-not-fire-new-50-mile-range-rock...
_________________________________________________
Putin World Descends Into Fury Over New U.S. Rocket Delivery
THE AUDACITY
America’s latest gift to Ukraine has the Kremlin accusing the U.S. of adding “fuel to the fire.”
Shannon Vavra | Jun. 01, 2022
https://www.thedailybeast.com/moscow-descends-into-fury-over-us-himars-rocket-de...
__________________________________________________
Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 @IAPonomarenko | 10:19 AM · Jun 1, 2022:
Defense reporter with The Kyiv Independent. War, weapons, beer & heavy metal. A village guy from Donbas in a crusade for something better.
Russia says the U.S. supplies of heavy weaponry to Ukraine “may lead to direct clash between Russia and America.”
Oh believe me when I tell you, after they fought for 2 months to take Popasna from Ukraine, the last thing they now want is clashing with the U.S. military.
Pentagon vs. Congress tension builds over monitoring billions in Ukraine aid
Andrew Desiderio, Lara Seligman and Connor O’Brien | 06/02/2022
The Hill is closely watching how the Defense Department allocates the recently passed $40 billion in aid to Ukraine, aware it's been burned in the past...
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/02/congress-pentagon-ukraine-aid-oversight...
_________________________________________________
107John5918
The Russian soldiers refusing to fight in Ukraine (BBC)
Some Russian troops are refusing to return to fight in Ukraine because of their experiences on the front line at the start of the invasion, according to Russian human rights lawyers and activists. The BBC has been speaking to one such soldier...
108John5918
Russia must not be humiliated in Ukraine, says Emmanuel Macron (Guardian)
Pope Francis: 'I want to go to Ukraine, but at the right moment' (Vatican News)
Russia must not be humiliated in Ukraine, Emmanuel Macron has said, to allow an improvement in diplomatic relations between the west and Moscow whenever the war comes to an end. The French president said his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, had made a “historic and fundamental” error in invading Ukraine, but that nevertheless a wider escalation in hostilities had to be avoided. Giving an interview to a group of regional newspapers in his home country, Macron said: “We must not humiliate Russia so that the day the fighting stops, we can build a way out through diplomatic channels”...
Pope Francis: 'I want to go to Ukraine, but at the right moment' (Vatican News)
Pope Francis expresses his desire to go to Ukraine as soon as possible but says his visit must not do more harm than good... “I would like to go to Ukraine. But, I have to wait for the right time to do it, because it is not easy to make a decision that could do more harm to the whole world than good. I have to look for the right time to do it. This week I meet with representatives of the Ukrainian government, who are coming to talk about a possible visit of mine there. Let's see what happens”...
109margd
Jim Roberts @nycjim | 9:47 AM · Jun 4, 2022:
Historic monastery in Donetsk, Ukraine, goes up in flames after Russian shelling.
*All Saints of Sviatohirsk Lavra was built in 1526.
*This war is criminal.
Before & after RU shelling:
https://twitter.com/nycjim/status/1533083124103802882/photo/1
https://twitter.com/nycjim/status/1533083124103802882/photo/2
https://theguardian.com/world/live/2022/jun/04/russia-ukraine-war-latest-ukraini...
-----------------------------------------------------------
Like watching Notre Dame burn...
Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 10:48 AM · Jun 4, 2022:
Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future.
Zelenskyy: about 300 people were sheltered in shelled Sviatohorsk Lavra, including 60 children.
There were no military targets on the monastery's territory.
In the end of May #Kyiv asked to stop russia's membership in @UNESCO for destroying cultural landmarks #RussiaWarCrimes
0.04 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1533098481140785154 )
Historic monastery in Donetsk, Ukraine, goes up in flames after Russian shelling.
*All Saints of Sviatohirsk Lavra was built in 1526.
*This war is criminal.
Before & after RU shelling:
https://twitter.com/nycjim/status/1533083124103802882/photo/1
https://twitter.com/nycjim/status/1533083124103802882/photo/2
https://theguardian.com/world/live/2022/jun/04/russia-ukraine-war-latest-ukraini...
-----------------------------------------------------------
Like watching Notre Dame burn...
Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 10:48 AM · Jun 4, 2022:
Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future.
Zelenskyy: about 300 people were sheltered in shelled Sviatohorsk Lavra, including 60 children.
There were no military targets on the monastery's territory.
In the end of May #Kyiv asked to stop russia's membership in @UNESCO for destroying cultural landmarks #RussiaWarCrimes
0.04 ( https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1533098481140785154 )
110margd
Business Ukraine mag @ | 5:35 AM · Jun 5, 2022:
Russia has destroyed a major Ukrainian grain export terminal in Mykolaiv that plays a crucial role in international food security. This targeted attack is further evidence that Putin is weaponising global famine in a bid to blackmail the international community
Photo ( https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1533382115336790016/photo/1 )
--------------------------------------------------------
Hey, Dave! @davegreenidge57 | 6:26 AM · Jun 5, 2022:
They’re also destroying grain stores and silos in the interior of the country. And the grain they’ve stolen is ending up in places like Syria.
PHOTOS-satellite (CNN)
https://twitter.com/davegreenidge57/status/1533394809381076992/photo/1
https://twitter.com/davegreenidge57/status/1533394809381076992/photo/2
https://twitter.com/davegreenidge57/status/1533394809381076992/photo/3
Over 40% of the UN’s emergency food supplies for nations in the most critical need comes from Ukraine. This will have some of the greatest impact on the people of sub-Saharan Africa and war torn countries like Yemen.
And it’s not just poor countries who depend on Ukrainian exports. Egypt purchased 300K tons of wheat just before the invasion. That’s equal to about 10 Russian bulk haulers, like this one, loading up on stolen grain. And everyone knows, a lack of bread has toppled many an empire.
https://twitter.com/davegreenidge57/status/1533394809381076992/photo/3
Russia has destroyed a major Ukrainian grain export terminal in Mykolaiv that plays a crucial role in international food security. This targeted attack is further evidence that Putin is weaponising global famine in a bid to blackmail the international community
Photo ( https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1533382115336790016/photo/1 )
--------------------------------------------------------
Hey, Dave! @davegreenidge57 | 6:26 AM · Jun 5, 2022:
They’re also destroying grain stores and silos in the interior of the country. And the grain they’ve stolen is ending up in places like Syria.
PHOTOS-satellite (CNN)
https://twitter.com/davegreenidge57/status/1533394809381076992/photo/1
https://twitter.com/davegreenidge57/status/1533394809381076992/photo/2
https://twitter.com/davegreenidge57/status/1533394809381076992/photo/3
Over 40% of the UN’s emergency food supplies for nations in the most critical need comes from Ukraine. This will have some of the greatest impact on the people of sub-Saharan Africa and war torn countries like Yemen.
And it’s not just poor countries who depend on Ukrainian exports. Egypt purchased 300K tons of wheat just before the invasion. That’s equal to about 10 Russian bulk haulers, like this one, loading up on stolen grain. And everyone knows, a lack of bread has toppled many an empire.
https://twitter.com/davegreenidge57/status/1533394809381076992/photo/3
111margd
Skirting Sanctions, Moscow Slashes Prices to Find Oil Buyers
June 06, 2022
Dmitry Peskov
spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin
“Certainly, Russia will not sell anything without a profit. The demand may fall in one place and rise elsewhere.”
Source: RT, June 2, 2022
MISLEADING!
...In April, Russia was selling crude to India at $35 per barrel below the Brent benchmark. As of June 2, that discount increased to about $40 per barrel below the Brent benchmark...There are also reports that India may be considering paying for Russian oil in rubles to get around Moscow’s exclusion from the SWIFT global financial payments system because of the Ukraine war.
...China’s state-owned SINOPEC, the largest refinery in Asia, and other Chinese refineries like CNOOC, PetroChina and Sinochem, continue to purchase crude oil from Russia under long-term contracts.
Reuters said in April that these buyers did not sign new contracts despite offers of “steep discounts,” as Beijing is conscious about being seen as a supporter of the war in Ukraine.
By May, however, something changed. Reuters reported that China was slurping up ever more Russian crude, with imports that month expected to hit a near-record 1.1 million barrels per day, more than 40 percent above the first quarter of the year.
“The low price of Russia's oil – spot differentials are about $29 less per barrel compared with before the invasion, according to traders – is a boon for China's refiners as they face shrinking margins in a slowing economy.
Before its invasion of Ukraine, Russia supplied 15% of China’s oil imports using the East Siberian and Atasu-Alashankou pipelines, as well as tankers. China some day may become less dependent on Russian oil thanks to its Kenli 6-1 oil field in the Bohai Sea, which is ranked among world’s 10 largest reserves...
https://www.polygraph.info/a/fact-check-skirting-sanctions-moscow-slashes-prices...
June 06, 2022
Dmitry Peskov
spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin
“Certainly, Russia will not sell anything without a profit. The demand may fall in one place and rise elsewhere.”
Source: RT, June 2, 2022
MISLEADING!
...In April, Russia was selling crude to India at $35 per barrel below the Brent benchmark. As of June 2, that discount increased to about $40 per barrel below the Brent benchmark...There are also reports that India may be considering paying for Russian oil in rubles to get around Moscow’s exclusion from the SWIFT global financial payments system because of the Ukraine war.
...China’s state-owned SINOPEC, the largest refinery in Asia, and other Chinese refineries like CNOOC, PetroChina and Sinochem, continue to purchase crude oil from Russia under long-term contracts.
Reuters said in April that these buyers did not sign new contracts despite offers of “steep discounts,” as Beijing is conscious about being seen as a supporter of the war in Ukraine.
By May, however, something changed. Reuters reported that China was slurping up ever more Russian crude, with imports that month expected to hit a near-record 1.1 million barrels per day, more than 40 percent above the first quarter of the year.
“The low price of Russia's oil – spot differentials are about $29 less per barrel compared with before the invasion, according to traders – is a boon for China's refiners as they face shrinking margins in a slowing economy.
Before its invasion of Ukraine, Russia supplied 15% of China’s oil imports using the East Siberian and Atasu-Alashankou pipelines, as well as tankers. China some day may become less dependent on Russian oil thanks to its Kenli 6-1 oil field in the Bohai Sea, which is ranked among world’s 10 largest reserves...
https://www.polygraph.info/a/fact-check-skirting-sanctions-moscow-slashes-prices...
112margd
Not sure what to make of this:
Trent Telenko @TrentTelenko | 8:38 PM · Jun 6, 2022
Retired US DoD Civil Servant, Section 22 Special Interest Group list admin
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1533971725951672322
This is a Starlink in Ukraine & future history thread🧵
In case you all haven't noticed, Starlink connected to the Ukrainian 'Gis Arta' artillery C3I app in a vehicle mobile device is pure death for Russians... 1/
And also see Ukraine's PzH-2000 155mm self-propelled gun software upgrade... 2/
The Russians have a great many reasons to be utterly pissed off at Elon Musk.
I have referred to the Russo-Ukrainian War as the "First Starlink War" for many good & sufficient reasons.
The military & political power accruing to Musk from Starlink and Starship will not 3/
...be broken up by the American SCOTUS for the next 20 years.
And I mentioned the military dimension for a reason. If Russia wants to start "Space War One" with Elon. It will lose it for logistical reasons.
1st, Russia failed at hacking Starlink. 4/
2nd, every satellite with a working thruster can be an anti-satellite weapon ONCE.
Musk has more ion drive 'space ammo' than everyone else in humanity combined & can launch it faster & cheaper than Russia without Starship.
Software used to avoid space impacts can be used 5/
And this leaves out the possibility that multiple close approaches by Starlink satellite's won't be arranged such that a Russian ASAT gets blasted & 'soft killed' by Kryption fueled ion thrusters using temporarily positive-charged ion thrust streams. 6/
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1533971740535169024/photo/1
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1533971740535169024/photo/2
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1533971740535169024/photo/3
And by the way, with sufficient warning from the US Space Force, the delta vee that Starlink satellites have from their ion thrusters make them a slippery target for an orbital maneuvering ASAT.
Superior specific impulse & long burn times do that. 7/
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1533971746751225857/photo/1
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1533971746751225857/photo/2
This doesn't mean a direct assent Russian ASAT can't tag a Starlink bird.
The problem is that after the 1st try, they will be harder to hit.
Plus, Musk's SpaceX simply has more replacement Starlink satellites in his next Falcon-9 launch than Russia has direct assent ASATs. 8/
So playing high tech "Hybrid War" with SpaceX is a losing hand for the Putin Regime.
Russia attacking SpaceX launch or control facilities in the territory of USA will start a war Putin is guaranteed to lose.
That leaves assassination, which is where Ukraine comes in. 9/
However the Russo-Ukrainian War ends, the Ukrainian people will be a very close political and military ally of Musk for the rest of his life.
It is a Ukrainian blood debt to be repaid to Elon Musk which hits a whole lot of deep cultural identity keys 10/
...in the Ukrainian national character.
There is a lot that flows from that fact which many of Musk's detractors & enemies clearly have not begun to think through.
A lot of Humanity's future history will have its roots in this 21st century blood-debt relationship. 11/
Frankly, things have been so "science fiction turned reality" lately.
I would not be surprised if SpaceX gets a detachment of Ukrainian Space Marine-Astronauts for Elon's personal & Martian colony security in the 2030's. 12/End
Trent Telenko @TrentTelenko | 8:38 PM · Jun 6, 2022
Retired US DoD Civil Servant, Section 22 Special Interest Group list admin
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1533971725951672322
This is a Starlink in Ukraine & future history thread🧵
In case you all haven't noticed, Starlink connected to the Ukrainian 'Gis Arta' artillery C3I app in a vehicle mobile device is pure death for Russians... 1/
And also see Ukraine's PzH-2000 155mm self-propelled gun software upgrade... 2/
The Russians have a great many reasons to be utterly pissed off at Elon Musk.
I have referred to the Russo-Ukrainian War as the "First Starlink War" for many good & sufficient reasons.
The military & political power accruing to Musk from Starlink and Starship will not 3/
...be broken up by the American SCOTUS for the next 20 years.
And I mentioned the military dimension for a reason. If Russia wants to start "Space War One" with Elon. It will lose it for logistical reasons.
1st, Russia failed at hacking Starlink. 4/
2nd, every satellite with a working thruster can be an anti-satellite weapon ONCE.
Musk has more ion drive 'space ammo' than everyone else in humanity combined & can launch it faster & cheaper than Russia without Starship.
Software used to avoid space impacts can be used 5/
And this leaves out the possibility that multiple close approaches by Starlink satellite's won't be arranged such that a Russian ASAT gets blasted & 'soft killed' by Kryption fueled ion thrusters using temporarily positive-charged ion thrust streams. 6/
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1533971740535169024/photo/1
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1533971740535169024/photo/2
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1533971740535169024/photo/3
And by the way, with sufficient warning from the US Space Force, the delta vee that Starlink satellites have from their ion thrusters make them a slippery target for an orbital maneuvering ASAT.
Superior specific impulse & long burn times do that. 7/
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1533971746751225857/photo/1
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1533971746751225857/photo/2
This doesn't mean a direct assent Russian ASAT can't tag a Starlink bird.
The problem is that after the 1st try, they will be harder to hit.
Plus, Musk's SpaceX simply has more replacement Starlink satellites in his next Falcon-9 launch than Russia has direct assent ASATs. 8/
So playing high tech "Hybrid War" with SpaceX is a losing hand for the Putin Regime.
Russia attacking SpaceX launch or control facilities in the territory of USA will start a war Putin is guaranteed to lose.
That leaves assassination, which is where Ukraine comes in. 9/
However the Russo-Ukrainian War ends, the Ukrainian people will be a very close political and military ally of Musk for the rest of his life.
It is a Ukrainian blood debt to be repaid to Elon Musk which hits a whole lot of deep cultural identity keys 10/
...in the Ukrainian national character.
There is a lot that flows from that fact which many of Musk's detractors & enemies clearly have not begun to think through.
A lot of Humanity's future history will have its roots in this 21st century blood-debt relationship. 11/
Frankly, things have been so "science fiction turned reality" lately.
I would not be surprised if SpaceX gets a detachment of Ukrainian Space Marine-Astronauts for Elon's personal & Martian colony security in the 2030's. 12/End
113margd
Back to the Crusades?? Ukrainians will now have to pray for Patriarch Kirill, a requirement that was resisted before the war (but after 2014) when they were under control of Russian Orthodox Church.
Tuesday, June 7 03:28 PM
external Russian Orthodox Church takes full control of Ukrainian eparchies in occupied Crimea.
On June 7, the synod of Russia’s Orthodox Church decided to move the Dzhankoi, Simferopol, and Feodosia eparchies of the Moscow-controlled Ukrainian Orthodox Church under the direct authority of Patriarch Kirill, the head of Russia’s Orthodox Church, who is an outspoken supporter of the war in Ukraine. Prior, the Russian-controlled Ukrainian church issued a statement against Kirill and the war.
https://kyivindependent.com/national/portrait-of-the-invader-understanding-the-r...
Tuesday, June 7 03:28 PM
external Russian Orthodox Church takes full control of Ukrainian eparchies in occupied Crimea.
On June 7, the synod of Russia’s Orthodox Church decided to move the Dzhankoi, Simferopol, and Feodosia eparchies of the Moscow-controlled Ukrainian Orthodox Church under the direct authority of Patriarch Kirill, the head of Russia’s Orthodox Church, who is an outspoken supporter of the war in Ukraine. Prior, the Russian-controlled Ukrainian church issued a statement against Kirill and the war.
https://kyivindependent.com/national/portrait-of-the-invader-understanding-the-r...
114margd
Portrait of the invader: Understanding the Russian soldier
Igor Kossov | June 7, 2022
...Many of the soldiers are dirt-poor and badly educated, with many growing up without access to modern amenities. Many joined the armed forces because they have no future in their backwater towns. The majority have bad training, low morale and no faith in their poorly-maintained equipment and their callous or incompetent officers.
When occupying areas, many drank heavily, turning their quarters into shambles, or went around looting anything barely valuable they could get their hands on.
While some civilians acknowledged that they were treated adequately by Russian soldiers, others spoke of casual murder and cruelty inflicted either to feel safe, to satisfy base desires or just for the sake of being cruel.
This was enough to rack up more than 15,000 alleged war crimes as of June 1 by Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova’s reckoning. This ranged from random killings to deliberate murder, to torture and rape of civilians...
Where they’re from
The looting
Competence
Attitude
Aggression and dehumanization
https://kyivindependent.com/national/portrait-of-the-invader-understanding-the-r...
Igor Kossov | June 7, 2022
...Many of the soldiers are dirt-poor and badly educated, with many growing up without access to modern amenities. Many joined the armed forces because they have no future in their backwater towns. The majority have bad training, low morale and no faith in their poorly-maintained equipment and their callous or incompetent officers.
When occupying areas, many drank heavily, turning their quarters into shambles, or went around looting anything barely valuable they could get their hands on.
While some civilians acknowledged that they were treated adequately by Russian soldiers, others spoke of casual murder and cruelty inflicted either to feel safe, to satisfy base desires or just for the sake of being cruel.
This was enough to rack up more than 15,000 alleged war crimes as of June 1 by Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova’s reckoning. This ranged from random killings to deliberate murder, to torture and rape of civilians...
Where they’re from
The looting
Competence
Attitude
Aggression and dehumanization
https://kyivindependent.com/national/portrait-of-the-invader-understanding-the-r...
115margd
Avital Chizhik-Goldschmidt @avitalrachel | 1:53 PM · Jun 7, 2022:
journalist... ✍🏼 Atlantic, NYT, Foreign Policy, New Republic, Vox, Vogue, Insider, etc. prev: Haaretz, Forward.
Can finally share that my in-laws, Moscow Chief Rabbi @PinchasRabbi* & Rebbetzin Dara Goldschmidt, have been put under pressure by authorities to publicly support the 'special operation' in Ukraine — and refused.
They flew to Hungary two weeks after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. They are now in exile from the community they loved, built & raised their children in, over 33 years — though he was re-elected today by the МЕРО community.
They first traveled to Eastern Europe, fundraising for refugees through @europerabbis, and then Jerusalem, where his father was hospitalised at the time.
The pain & fear in our family the last few months is beyond words. The sounds of the Moscow Choral Synagogue ring in our ears…I’ll never forget our engagement there in ‘14, & taking our children there, Shavuos ‘18…
Grateful our parents are safe; worried sick over many others...
The full story appeared in @Le_Figaro here:
Image ( https://twitter.com/avitalrachel/status/1534232141558587395/photo/1 )
* Rabbi Pinchas Goldschmidt @PinchasRabbi
Chief Rabbi of Moscow since 1993. President of the Conference of European Rabbis since 2011.
journalist... ✍🏼 Atlantic, NYT, Foreign Policy, New Republic, Vox, Vogue, Insider, etc. prev: Haaretz, Forward.
Can finally share that my in-laws, Moscow Chief Rabbi @PinchasRabbi* & Rebbetzin Dara Goldschmidt, have been put under pressure by authorities to publicly support the 'special operation' in Ukraine — and refused.
They flew to Hungary two weeks after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. They are now in exile from the community they loved, built & raised their children in, over 33 years — though he was re-elected today by the МЕРО community.
They first traveled to Eastern Europe, fundraising for refugees through @europerabbis, and then Jerusalem, where his father was hospitalised at the time.
The pain & fear in our family the last few months is beyond words. The sounds of the Moscow Choral Synagogue ring in our ears…I’ll never forget our engagement there in ‘14, & taking our children there, Shavuos ‘18…
Grateful our parents are safe; worried sick over many others...
The full story appeared in @Le_Figaro here:
Image ( https://twitter.com/avitalrachel/status/1534232141558587395/photo/1 )
* Rabbi Pinchas Goldschmidt @PinchasRabbi
Chief Rabbi of Moscow since 1993. President of the Conference of European Rabbis since 2011.
116margd
Expat in Kyiv @expatua | 1:50 PM · Jun 7, 2022:
Russia transferring more MLRS and 152mm howitzers all the way from Irkutsk (Siberia near the Mongolian border) to Ukraine.
The entire armory of Russia is being destroyed in Ukraine.
0:40 ( https://twitter.com/expatua/status/1534231268803727362 )
Russia transferring more MLRS and 152mm howitzers all the way from Irkutsk (Siberia near the Mongolian border) to Ukraine.
The entire armory of Russia is being destroyed in Ukraine.
0:40 ( https://twitter.com/expatua/status/1534231268803727362 )
117margd
Alec Luhn @ASLuhn | 7:28 AM · Jun 7, 2022:
@VICENews. Formerly Guardian, Telegraph & Scripps enviro journo fellowship.
Russian blogger/alpinist Katya Lipka climbed Everest ... and unfurled the Ukrainian flag at the top 🇺🇦 https://instagram.com/p/CeWbIBAKdzp/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
0:14 ( https://twitter.com/ASLuhn/status/1534135165202702336 )
@VICENews. Formerly Guardian, Telegraph & Scripps enviro journo fellowship.
Russian blogger/alpinist Katya Lipka climbed Everest ... and unfurled the Ukrainian flag at the top 🇺🇦 https://instagram.com/p/CeWbIBAKdzp/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
0:14 ( https://twitter.com/ASLuhn/status/1534135165202702336 )
118margd
Russia's Lavrov in Turkey to discuss plan to ship Ukrainian grain
The Associated Press | June 8, 2022
ANKARA, Turkey — Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is due to hold talks Wednesday with Turkish officials on a plan that could allow Ukraine to export its grain through the Black Sea to global markets amid an escalating food crisis.
...Turkey is involved in efforts for the establishment of a U.N.-led mechanism that would create a secure corridor for the shipment of the Ukrainian grain — and for Russia to export food and fertilizer. Turkey would facilitate and protect the transport of the grain in the Black Sea, Turkish officials have said.
"Our efforts are continuing concerning the technical planning on such issues as how it will be done, how the mines will be cleared, who will do it, how the corridor will be established and who will escort (ships)," (Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar) said.
...Lavrov's discussions in the Turkish capital are also expected to focus on Turkey's plans to launch a new cross-border offensive in northern Syria against Syrian Kurdish militia that Ankara considers to be a security threat...
Lavrov's meeting also comes as Turkey — a NATO member — has voiced opposition to Sweden and Finland's bids to join the alliance...
Turkey has maintained its close ties to both Ukraine and Russia. It has criticized Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but hasn't joined international sanctions against Russia.
https://www.npr.org/2022/06/08/1103649468/russias-lavrov-in-turkey-to-discuss-pl...
The Associated Press | June 8, 2022
ANKARA, Turkey — Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is due to hold talks Wednesday with Turkish officials on a plan that could allow Ukraine to export its grain through the Black Sea to global markets amid an escalating food crisis.
...Turkey is involved in efforts for the establishment of a U.N.-led mechanism that would create a secure corridor for the shipment of the Ukrainian grain — and for Russia to export food and fertilizer. Turkey would facilitate and protect the transport of the grain in the Black Sea, Turkish officials have said.
"Our efforts are continuing concerning the technical planning on such issues as how it will be done, how the mines will be cleared, who will do it, how the corridor will be established and who will escort (ships)," (Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar) said.
...Lavrov's discussions in the Turkish capital are also expected to focus on Turkey's plans to launch a new cross-border offensive in northern Syria against Syrian Kurdish militia that Ankara considers to be a security threat...
Lavrov's meeting also comes as Turkey — a NATO member — has voiced opposition to Sweden and Finland's bids to join the alliance...
Turkey has maintained its close ties to both Ukraine and Russia. It has criticized Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but hasn't joined international sanctions against Russia.
https://www.npr.org/2022/06/08/1103649468/russias-lavrov-in-turkey-to-discuss-pl...
119margd
Um, the Geneva Convention on treatment of prisoners?
https://www.icrc.org/en/war-and-law/treaties-customary-law/geneva-conventions
Francis Scarr @francis_scarr | 1:44 PM · Jun 9, 2022:
With @BBCMonitoring watching Russian state TV so you don't have to
Russian state TV's Artyom Sheynin is in full gloating mode after UK nationals Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner were sentenced to death by a Russian proxy court in the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic
0:46 ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1534954505493745671 )
https://www.icrc.org/en/war-and-law/treaties-customary-law/geneva-conventions
Francis Scarr @francis_scarr | 1:44 PM · Jun 9, 2022:
With @BBCMonitoring watching Russian state TV so you don't have to
Russian state TV's Artyom Sheynin is in full gloating mode after UK nationals Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner were sentenced to death by a Russian proxy court in the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic
0:46 ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1534954505493745671 )
120margd
Russian Army supplies DPR and LPR forces with outdated artillery equipment and no ammunitions
Dmitri | 9 Jun 2022
As part of a much (much!) longer post about artillery within Russian and separatist armed forces, the DPR blogger Murz shares his description of the Russian army switching to 152mm caliber standard while dumping the existing 122mm guns to (Donbas) separatist forces, in the end resulting in extremely poor performance of the latter on the battlefield when the supplies for 122mm guns ran dry.
...The formation of the People’s Militia Corps in 2014-2015 was a very happy occasion allowing to dump all of the 122mm caliber guns.
Pure benefit. First – to dump all the old rubbish. Let the grubby Donbassians mess around with it. Secondly, – “there is a truce, they won’t be firing much”, thus no decisions regarding production of ammunitions needed to be made. “We will just take from our supplies”.
...Thus, when there is a formal opportunity to somehow use the results of Mariupol capitulation and freeing up of large forces of DPR People’s Militia, there is actually no such real opportunity – some are sitting with no shells, others are putting D-20s in order after storage and learning how to use them.
And here we get a clear illustration of who actually has “de-calibration”. At the moment of writing the Ukrainians have already been shelling Donetsk for a week, in fact openly bringing MLRS and guns to locations where previously they were afraid to go, where for many years no bombs were dropping.
*“de-calibration” – a lack of a unified artillery gun caliber standard within artillery units and army
https://wartranslated.com/russia_dpr_artillery_standard/
Dmitri | 9 Jun 2022
As part of a much (much!) longer post about artillery within Russian and separatist armed forces, the DPR blogger Murz shares his description of the Russian army switching to 152mm caliber standard while dumping the existing 122mm guns to (Donbas) separatist forces, in the end resulting in extremely poor performance of the latter on the battlefield when the supplies for 122mm guns ran dry.
...The formation of the People’s Militia Corps in 2014-2015 was a very happy occasion allowing to dump all of the 122mm caliber guns.
Pure benefit. First – to dump all the old rubbish. Let the grubby Donbassians mess around with it. Secondly, – “there is a truce, they won’t be firing much”, thus no decisions regarding production of ammunitions needed to be made. “We will just take from our supplies”.
...Thus, when there is a formal opportunity to somehow use the results of Mariupol capitulation and freeing up of large forces of DPR People’s Militia, there is actually no such real opportunity – some are sitting with no shells, others are putting D-20s in order after storage and learning how to use them.
And here we get a clear illustration of who actually has “de-calibration”. At the moment of writing the Ukrainians have already been shelling Donetsk for a week, in fact openly bringing MLRS and guns to locations where previously they were afraid to go, where for many years no bombs were dropping.
*“de-calibration” – a lack of a unified artillery gun caliber standard within artillery units and army
https://wartranslated.com/russia_dpr_artillery_standard/
121margd
Russia is Wrong. The War on Ukraine Threatens a Food Crisis
William Echols | June 10, 2022
Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister
“The current situation with Ukraine grain has nothing to do with the food crisis.”
Source: RT, June 8, 2022
FALSE
...During a (June 8) appearance with his Turkish counterpart, Mevlut Cavusoglu, (Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov) downplayed the impact of blocking Ukrainian grain exports at Black Sea ports.
Lavrov accused the West of turning a “minor issue” into a “universal catastrophe.” He said “the share of this Ukrainian grain in question is less than 1% of the global production of wheat and other cereals...Therefore, the current situation with Ukrainian grain has nothing to do with the food crisis” ...
...It is approximately correct that less than 1% of the world’s grain is stuck in Ukrainian ports, but that statistic both obscures and minimizes Russia’s responsibility and the importance of Ukraine’s grain to global supplies...
Juergen Voegele, the World Bank’s Vice President for Sustainable Development, explains the situation, noting that wheat is a staple food for 35% of the world’s population: “Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat, accounting for about 18%, nearly 20% of global exports in 2021. And Ukraine accounts for another 10%...Now, they’re both not the largest producers of wheat – that’s India and China – but they are the largest exporters…So, (the Russian invasion is) a very significant shock.”...
https://www.polygraph.info/a/fact-check-russia-is-wrong-the-war-on-ukraine-threa...
William Echols | June 10, 2022
Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister
“The current situation with Ukraine grain has nothing to do with the food crisis.”
Source: RT, June 8, 2022
FALSE
...During a (June 8) appearance with his Turkish counterpart, Mevlut Cavusoglu, (Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov) downplayed the impact of blocking Ukrainian grain exports at Black Sea ports.
Lavrov accused the West of turning a “minor issue” into a “universal catastrophe.” He said “the share of this Ukrainian grain in question is less than 1% of the global production of wheat and other cereals...Therefore, the current situation with Ukrainian grain has nothing to do with the food crisis” ...
...It is approximately correct that less than 1% of the world’s grain is stuck in Ukrainian ports, but that statistic both obscures and minimizes Russia’s responsibility and the importance of Ukraine’s grain to global supplies...
Juergen Voegele, the World Bank’s Vice President for Sustainable Development, explains the situation, noting that wheat is a staple food for 35% of the world’s population: “Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat, accounting for about 18%, nearly 20% of global exports in 2021. And Ukraine accounts for another 10%...Now, they’re both not the largest producers of wheat – that’s India and China – but they are the largest exporters…So, (the Russian invasion is) a very significant shock.”...
https://www.polygraph.info/a/fact-check-russia-is-wrong-the-war-on-ukraine-threa...
122margd
With Ukrainian promise to US to not fire into Russia w US weapons, won't Russia just pull its long range missiles back across the border once US (and UK?) weapons arrive?
Fighting rages in critical Ukrainian city as Kyiv pleads for more weapons from West
Weizhen Tan | Jun 11 20223:32 AM EDT
High numbers of battle deaths and injuries are likely in Severodonetsk, an eastern Ukrainian city that is now the focus of Russia’s invasion in eastern Ukraine, according to a regular update by the U.K. Ministry of Defence.
“Intense street to street fighting is ongoing and both sides are likely suffering high numbers of casualties,” the ministry said on Twitter.
Ukraine is pleading for faster and a greater number of deliveries of weapons from the West. The war in the east is primarily an artillery battle where the Ukrainians are badly outgunned, according to the country’s officials...
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said the battle for Severodonetsk may decide the outcome for the east of Ukraine. He described the fighting in the city in Ukraine’s Donbas region as “probably one of the most difficult throughout this war.”
The Donbas refers to two provinces, Donetsk and Luhansk, in the easternmost part of Ukraine. It’s a major strategic, political and economic target for the Kremlin.
...The country is now banking its hopes on rocket systems the U.S. and U.K. have promised to send.
The U.K. said earlier this week that it will send Ukraine multiple-launch rocket systems that can strike targets up to 50 miles away, in a coordinated move with the United States. Washington said it would supply Ukraine with High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, which can travel more than 43 miles.
Russia has attacked Ukrainian defenders with many such rocket systems, which have a longer range than artillery guns.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/11/russia-ukraine-fighting-in-severodonetsk-zelensk...
Fighting rages in critical Ukrainian city as Kyiv pleads for more weapons from West
Weizhen Tan | Jun 11 20223:32 AM EDT
High numbers of battle deaths and injuries are likely in Severodonetsk, an eastern Ukrainian city that is now the focus of Russia’s invasion in eastern Ukraine, according to a regular update by the U.K. Ministry of Defence.
“Intense street to street fighting is ongoing and both sides are likely suffering high numbers of casualties,” the ministry said on Twitter.
Ukraine is pleading for faster and a greater number of deliveries of weapons from the West. The war in the east is primarily an artillery battle where the Ukrainians are badly outgunned, according to the country’s officials...
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said the battle for Severodonetsk may decide the outcome for the east of Ukraine. He described the fighting in the city in Ukraine’s Donbas region as “probably one of the most difficult throughout this war.”
The Donbas refers to two provinces, Donetsk and Luhansk, in the easternmost part of Ukraine. It’s a major strategic, political and economic target for the Kremlin.
...The country is now banking its hopes on rocket systems the U.S. and U.K. have promised to send.
The U.K. said earlier this week that it will send Ukraine multiple-launch rocket systems that can strike targets up to 50 miles away, in a coordinated move with the United States. Washington said it would supply Ukraine with High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, which can travel more than 43 miles.
Russia has attacked Ukrainian defenders with many such rocket systems, which have a longer range than artillery guns.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/11/russia-ukraine-fighting-in-severodonetsk-zelensk...
123margd
ETA:
Michael McFaul McFaul | 12:12 PM · Jun 11, 2022:
Stanford Professor, former US Ambassador to Russia
Putin has now made it crystal clear.
His invasion of Ukraine was never about NATO expansion, and always about Russian expansion.
_________________________________________
Putin doesn't look or sound well:
Putin Compares Himself to Peter the Great
Vladimir Putin compared himself to Peter the Great in an attempt to justify his country's ongoing & bloody invasion of Ukrainian territory
0:53 ( https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1535475158650982400 )
- NowThis @nowthisnews | 12:13 AM · Jun 11, 2022
__________________________________________
ETA:
David Frum @davidfrum | 7:28 AM · Jun 12, 2022:
"If it weren't for Peter the Great, you citizens of St Petersburg would all now be Swedish passport holders" may not resonate with Russians in the way Putin hopes
Michael McFaul McFaul | 12:12 PM · Jun 11, 2022:
Stanford Professor, former US Ambassador to Russia
Putin has now made it crystal clear.
His invasion of Ukraine was never about NATO expansion, and always about Russian expansion.
_________________________________________
Putin doesn't look or sound well:
Putin Compares Himself to Peter the Great
Vladimir Putin compared himself to Peter the Great in an attempt to justify his country's ongoing & bloody invasion of Ukrainian territory
0:53 ( https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1535475158650982400 )
- NowThis @nowthisnews | 12:13 AM · Jun 11, 2022
__________________________________________
ETA:
David Frum @davidfrum | 7:28 AM · Jun 12, 2022:
"If it weren't for Peter the Great, you citizens of St Petersburg would all now be Swedish passport holders" may not resonate with Russians in the way Putin hopes
124margd
Timothy Snyder @TimothyDSnyder | 9:40 AM · Jun 11, 2022:
Levin Professor of History at Yale. Author of "On Tyranny," with 20 new lessons on Ukraine, "Our Malady," "Road to Unfreedom," "Black Earth," and "Bloodlands"
https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1535617894045868033
Russia has a hunger plan. Vladimir Putin is preparing to starve much of the developing world as the next stage in his war in Europe. 1/16
...The Second World War was fought for Ukraine and in considerable measure in Ukraine, between dictators who wanted to control food supplies. 10/16
Russian memory politics prepared the way for a 21st-century hunger plan. Russians are told that Stalin's famine was an accident and that Ukrainians are Nazis. This makes theft and blockade seem acceptable. 11/16
Putin's hunger plan is, I believe, meant to work on three levels. First, it is part of a larger attempt to destroy the Ukrainian state, by cutting off its exports. 12/16
Putin's hunger plan is also meant to generate refugees from North Africa and the Middle East, areas usually fed by Ukraine. This would generate instability in the EU. 13/16
Finally, and most horribly, a world famine is a necessary backdrop for a Russian propaganda campaign against Ukraine. Actual mass death is needed as the backdrop for a propaganda contest. 14/16
When the food riots begin, and as starvation spreads, Russian propaganda will blame Ukraine, and call for Russia's territorial gains in Ukraine to be recognized, and for all sanctions to be lifted. 15/16
Russia is planning to starve Asians and Africans in order to win its war in Europe. This is a new level of colonialism, and the latest chapter of hunger politics. 16/16
------------------------------------------------------------
Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews | 4:21 PM · Apr 22, 2022:
More chilling rhetoric by Russia's Kremlin-controlled media: describing hunger as their weapon against the West. They know how to use hunger as a weapon, remember millions of Ukrainians starved to death during the Holodomor.
Image ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1517599402935869446/photo/1 )
https://ria.ru/20220422/eda-1784835298.html
-------------------------------------------------------------
Agripedia 🇨🇦 @agripedia | 4:28 PM · Apr 22, 2022:
The most productive farms in Russia use western seeds, genetics, and equipment. History will show Russian agricultural productivity peaking during the last few years (pre-COVID) and never reaching similar levels for years after. Russia will end up starving itself. Again.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Himbo Supreme 🇺🇸🇺🇦🗽🌐@Gingeruslicious · May 2:
Same deal with their oil and natural gas production. The numbers are already dropping. And Russia won't be the only country feeling the pain from that. The ME (Middle East?) will see higher food prices than pre-Arab Spring. China could very well have food and energy shortages. What a mess.
Levin Professor of History at Yale. Author of "On Tyranny," with 20 new lessons on Ukraine, "Our Malady," "Road to Unfreedom," "Black Earth," and "Bloodlands"
https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1535617894045868033
Russia has a hunger plan. Vladimir Putin is preparing to starve much of the developing world as the next stage in his war in Europe. 1/16
...The Second World War was fought for Ukraine and in considerable measure in Ukraine, between dictators who wanted to control food supplies. 10/16
Russian memory politics prepared the way for a 21st-century hunger plan. Russians are told that Stalin's famine was an accident and that Ukrainians are Nazis. This makes theft and blockade seem acceptable. 11/16
Putin's hunger plan is, I believe, meant to work on three levels. First, it is part of a larger attempt to destroy the Ukrainian state, by cutting off its exports. 12/16
Putin's hunger plan is also meant to generate refugees from North Africa and the Middle East, areas usually fed by Ukraine. This would generate instability in the EU. 13/16
Finally, and most horribly, a world famine is a necessary backdrop for a Russian propaganda campaign against Ukraine. Actual mass death is needed as the backdrop for a propaganda contest. 14/16
When the food riots begin, and as starvation spreads, Russian propaganda will blame Ukraine, and call for Russia's territorial gains in Ukraine to be recognized, and for all sanctions to be lifted. 15/16
Russia is planning to starve Asians and Africans in order to win its war in Europe. This is a new level of colonialism, and the latest chapter of hunger politics. 16/16
------------------------------------------------------------
Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews | 4:21 PM · Apr 22, 2022:
More chilling rhetoric by Russia's Kremlin-controlled media: describing hunger as their weapon against the West. They know how to use hunger as a weapon, remember millions of Ukrainians starved to death during the Holodomor.
Image ( https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1517599402935869446/photo/1 )
https://ria.ru/20220422/eda-1784835298.html
-------------------------------------------------------------
Agripedia 🇨🇦 @agripedia | 4:28 PM · Apr 22, 2022:
The most productive farms in Russia use western seeds, genetics, and equipment. History will show Russian agricultural productivity peaking during the last few years (pre-COVID) and never reaching similar levels for years after. Russia will end up starving itself. Again.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Himbo Supreme 🇺🇸🇺🇦🗽🌐@Gingeruslicious · May 2:
Same deal with their oil and natural gas production. The numbers are already dropping. And Russia won't be the only country feeling the pain from that. The ME (Middle East?) will see higher food prices than pre-Arab Spring. China could very well have food and energy shortages. What a mess.
125margd
Francis Scarr @francis_scarr | 6:08 AM · Jun 11, 2022:
With @BBCMonitoring watching Russian state TV so you don't have to
Meanwhile in Siberia's Kuzbass region, shamans have been leading rituals in support of the "special military operation" (with subtitles)
1:13 ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1535564537021210625 )
With @BBCMonitoring watching Russian state TV so you don't have to
Meanwhile in Siberia's Kuzbass region, shamans have been leading rituals in support of the "special military operation" (with subtitles)
1:13 ( https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1535564537021210625 )
126margd
Russian forces In Mariupol prepare for cholera outbreak — Adviser to Mariupol Mayor
11 June, 2022
In temporarily occupied Mariupol, the occupying authorities began preparations for the cholera outbreak. Russian forces conduct "urgent preparations" of an infectious disease department at the city's ambulance hospital despite a public denial of the threat, says Adviser to Mariupol Mayor Petro Andriushchenko...
https://en.hromadske.ua/posts/russian-forces-in-mariupol-prepare-for-cholera-out...
11 June, 2022
In temporarily occupied Mariupol, the occupying authorities began preparations for the cholera outbreak. Russian forces conduct "urgent preparations" of an infectious disease department at the city's ambulance hospital despite a public denial of the threat, says Adviser to Mariupol Mayor Petro Andriushchenko...
https://en.hromadske.ua/posts/russian-forces-in-mariupol-prepare-for-cholera-out...
127John5918
Endless Slaughter (Commonweal)
Intentional slaughter is something we humans are good at. We like it, do a lot of it, devote considerable effort to increasing our effectiveness at it, and celebrate our successes. The current slaughter in Ukraine is nothing new and nothing surprising: it’s one more instance of something as common as birth, or tears, or a night’s sleep. It’s a simple and ordinary aspect of human social life. Lamentable and horrible, of course, but commonplace... But one thing does seem clear: without arms from the United States, this war would very likely be over already. We are by far the largest supplier of arms to Ukraine, and although what we have provided so far is from President Zelenskyy’s viewpoint not enough, our arms have done more damage and slaughtered more people than those provided by any state other than the Russian Federation itself. The hands of every American taxpayer are now dripping with blood, and there seems no likely end to the flow of our weapons to Ukraine. A remarkable feature of our aid to Ukraine is that, since the conflict began, we have devoted more than twice as much money to the provision of weapons as we have to the provision of humanitarian support. That is a graphic illustration of our priorities. This situation is also commonplace. The United States, against its own better nature, is the principal purveyor of violent death to the world. We sell and provide weapons almost everywhere, to almost everyone, in much greater quantities than any other nation; and, since the end of the Soviet Empire, we have invaded, laid waste to, and otherwise damaged more sovereign states than the Russian Federation, and with a complete disregard for international law and national sovereignty... We have no ground, then, for arguing against the Russian invasion of Ukraine from a position of injured innocence or moral superiority...
128margd
Africa, throw in Moldova and Lithuania, and Russia might include a bit of vegetable oil with its stolen wheat.
The diplomatic war over Ukrainian grain exports heats up
Ishaan Tharoor | June 7, 2022
...On Friday, Senegalese President Macky Sall, who is also chair of the African Union, met with Putin in the Black Sea city of Sochi...
...in a time of mounting economic crisis, it matters less to countries far from the conflict how they receive their food and who is sending it.
“Africans don’t care where they get their food from, and if someone is going to moralize about that, they are mistaken,” Hassan Khannenje, director of the Kenya-based HORN International Institute for Strategic Studies, told the New York Times, referring to reports of Russian-stolen shipments of Ukrainian grain...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/07/grain-export-blockade-russia-ukr...
The diplomatic war over Ukrainian grain exports heats up
Ishaan Tharoor | June 7, 2022
...On Friday, Senegalese President Macky Sall, who is also chair of the African Union, met with Putin in the Black Sea city of Sochi...
...in a time of mounting economic crisis, it matters less to countries far from the conflict how they receive their food and who is sending it.
“Africans don’t care where they get their food from, and if someone is going to moralize about that, they are mistaken,” Hassan Khannenje, director of the Kenya-based HORN International Institute for Strategic Studies, told the New York Times, referring to reports of Russian-stolen shipments of Ukrainian grain...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/07/grain-export-blockade-russia-ukr...
129Ardagor
>127 Yes, if USA, Canada, the European and others had cut all military support the war would most likely be over now. Far less damage would have been done and far fewer people would have been killed most likely. Putin would have forced whatever "peace treaty" he wanted on the Ukrainians after decapitating the government and replacing it with his puppets. Then he would have spent some time digesting his new prize and prepare for the next move. Unfortunately he will have to be stopped and this case the Ukrainians was willing to fight for their freedom and USA of course jumped at the chance to inflict serious damage to the Russian military. It has been Pentagons wet dream for decades. Also most of the former Warsaw pact countries have heavily supported Ukraine. They have been under Moscows heel before and have no desire for the experience again for themselves or any others.
So here we are, the meatgrinder will churn on until the Russian military run out of steam which can take many months, then unless Putin declare mobilization he will have trouble raising more troops. He has few more sources of available troops to deploy.
All fresh recruits in the Russian army go into training battalions with experienced trainers and all the equipment a standard battalion have. So these training battalions can obviously be sent into battle, the men are very well trained and experiened and they will most likely do at least as well as the regular battalions in battle. But who will train he new recruits if all the trainers are killed?
Also russia is heavily "recruiting" from the occupied area of Ukraine and much of the forces Russia use is made up off poorly trained and equipped Ukrainians. The so called breakaway republics have declared general mobilization and every male between 18-65 no matter military training or illnesses have been given a gun and sent straight to the frontline where they are slaughtered in large numbers.
Also they send out messages to reserve soldiers that it is time for the yearly excercise and when the men arrive they are given the option to enlist in the army. Personell in other branches in the Russian army can also find that they are transferred to other units and sent to the front but they cannot really squeeze large numbers out with such methods.
Then when the Russian army is spent they will dig in and Putin will say that it is time for peace. The Russian artillery/airforce will hammer away at civillian areas to cause as much death and destruction as possible. Putin will also use the gas/hunger cards as best he can. He is hoping that Ukraines European supporters will crumble under the pressure from the public to cut the gasoline/electricity prices and force the Ukrainians to the negotiation table.
As more heavy weapons arrive from USA/Europe in Ukraine the Ukrainian army will push the Russians back (it will be slow and bloody, the Russians are usually good in defence).When the Ukrainians feel they are in a good position that it is time to negotiate and Putin is so desperat that he is willing to accept any deal there will be a peace treaty but that will be a long time. 8 months, a year, 2 years. Who knows, but it will not be before the Russian army is unable to fight any longer unless Putin finally see reason and decide to cut his losses and pull out before his army is completely wrecked.
So here we are, the meatgrinder will churn on until the Russian military run out of steam which can take many months, then unless Putin declare mobilization he will have trouble raising more troops. He has few more sources of available troops to deploy.
All fresh recruits in the Russian army go into training battalions with experienced trainers and all the equipment a standard battalion have. So these training battalions can obviously be sent into battle, the men are very well trained and experiened and they will most likely do at least as well as the regular battalions in battle. But who will train he new recruits if all the trainers are killed?
Also russia is heavily "recruiting" from the occupied area of Ukraine and much of the forces Russia use is made up off poorly trained and equipped Ukrainians. The so called breakaway republics have declared general mobilization and every male between 18-65 no matter military training or illnesses have been given a gun and sent straight to the frontline where they are slaughtered in large numbers.
Also they send out messages to reserve soldiers that it is time for the yearly excercise and when the men arrive they are given the option to enlist in the army. Personell in other branches in the Russian army can also find that they are transferred to other units and sent to the front but they cannot really squeeze large numbers out with such methods.
Then when the Russian army is spent they will dig in and Putin will say that it is time for peace. The Russian artillery/airforce will hammer away at civillian areas to cause as much death and destruction as possible. Putin will also use the gas/hunger cards as best he can. He is hoping that Ukraines European supporters will crumble under the pressure from the public to cut the gasoline/electricity prices and force the Ukrainians to the negotiation table.
As more heavy weapons arrive from USA/Europe in Ukraine the Ukrainian army will push the Russians back (it will be slow and bloody, the Russians are usually good in defence).When the Ukrainians feel they are in a good position that it is time to negotiate and Putin is so desperat that he is willing to accept any deal there will be a peace treaty but that will be a long time. 8 months, a year, 2 years. Who knows, but it will not be before the Russian army is unable to fight any longer unless Putin finally see reason and decide to cut his losses and pull out before his army is completely wrecked.
130margd
Siege of Mariupol story told by the DPR spetsnaz fighter
Dmitri | 12 Jun 2022 | Russian Accounts
...the story below is a succinct description of the battle for Mariupol told from a position of a DPR spetsnaz fighter and his unit specifically. This is not exactly one of the stories of Russian failures we are used to reading. But despite leaning heavily to the Russian side it still demonstrates acts of heroism and solid professionalism by the defenders who ended up in a life and death situation.
Beginning of the assault
Fights for a block of high-rises
What the dominant height allows you to do?
Assault of the Ilyicha plant and capture of Ukrainian marines
– What can you say about Ukrainian marines as an enemy?
Assault of Ilyicha plant
Assault of Azovstal
Final stage of the battle for Azovstal
Afterword
https://wartranslated.com/siege-of-mariupol-story-told-by-the-dpr-spetsnaz-fight...
Dmitri | 12 Jun 2022 | Russian Accounts
...the story below is a succinct description of the battle for Mariupol told from a position of a DPR spetsnaz fighter and his unit specifically. This is not exactly one of the stories of Russian failures we are used to reading. But despite leaning heavily to the Russian side it still demonstrates acts of heroism and solid professionalism by the defenders who ended up in a life and death situation.
Beginning of the assault
Fights for a block of high-rises
What the dominant height allows you to do?
Assault of the Ilyicha plant and capture of Ukrainian marines
– What can you say about Ukrainian marines as an enemy?
Assault of Ilyicha plant
Assault of Azovstal
Final stage of the battle for Azovstal
Afterword
https://wartranslated.com/siege-of-mariupol-story-told-by-the-dpr-spetsnaz-fight...
131John5918
Pope Francis says Ukraine war was ‘perhaps somehow provoked’ (Guardian)
Ukraine war 'perhaps in some way either provoked or not prevented,' says Pope Francis (CNN)
Pontiff condemns ‘cruelty’ of Russian troops while warning against perception of conflict as good v evil... the pontiff condemned the “ferocity and cruelty of the Russian troops” while warning against what he said was a fairytale perception of the conflict as good versus evil. “We need to move away from the usual Little Red Riding Hood pattern, in that Little Red Riding Hood was good and the wolf was the bad one,” he said. “Something global is emerging and the elements are very much entwined”... Francis added that a couple of months before the war he met a head of state, who he did not identify but described as “a wise man who speaks little, a very wise man indeed … He told me that he was very worried about how Nato was moving. I asked him why, and he replied: ‘They are barking at the gates of Russia. They don’t understand that the Russians are imperial and can’t have any foreign power getting close to them.’” He added: “We do not see the whole drama unfolding behind this war, which was, perhaps, somehow either provoked or not prevented”...
Ukraine war 'perhaps in some way either provoked or not prevented,' says Pope Francis (CNN)
"What we are seeing is the brutality and ferocity with which this war is waged by the troops, generally mercenary, used by the Russians," the pontiff reportedly said... "But the danger is that we only see this, which is monstrous, and we do not see the whole drama that is unfolding behind this war, which was perhaps in some way either provoked or not prevented. And I register an interest in testing and selling weapons. It is very sad, but basically this is what is at stake," he said. The Pope said he is not "in favor" of Russian President Vladimir Putin but "simply against reducing complexity to the distinction between good and bad, without thinking about roots and interests, which are very complex." "While we see the ferocity, the cruelty of the Russian troops, we must not forget the problems to try to solve them," he added... the Pope said the invasion of Ukraine "has now been added to the regional wars that for years have taken a heavy toll of death and destruction." "Yet here the situation is even more complex due to the direct intervention of a 'superpower' aimed at imposing its own will in violation of the principle of the self-determination of peoples"...
132margd
Hopefully, Navalny's move, and not his demise, will be confirmed.
Alexey Navalny transferred to maximum-security prison
Anna Chernova and Karen Smith | June 14, 2022
...The jailed politician was relocated to a maximum-security prison in Melekhovo in the Vladimir Region, according to Russia's state media outlet TASS citing Sergey Yazhan, chairman of the regional public oversight commission.
Yazhan told TASS on Tuesday that Navalny had arrived at the prison. However, Navalny's spokesperson Kira Yarmysh said on Twitter that despite media reports Navalny's team had not received confirmation of his transfer to Melekhovo.
The move is in line with the judge's orders at his sentencing in March, when a Moscow court sentenced Navalny to a further nine years in a maximum-security prison. He was convicted on fraud charges by Moscow's Lefortovo court over allegations that he stole from his Anti-Corruption Foundation.
Navalny had mentioned the expected move in a Telegram post in May, writing darkly that he had heard a "prison within a prison" awaited him at Melekhovo.
"My sentence has not yet entered into force, but the prisoners from the strict regime colony Melekhovo write that they are equipping a 'prison within a prison' for me," he wrote...
https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/14/europe/alexey-navalny-prison-transfer-intl/index....
Alexey Navalny transferred to maximum-security prison
Anna Chernova and Karen Smith | June 14, 2022
...The jailed politician was relocated to a maximum-security prison in Melekhovo in the Vladimir Region, according to Russia's state media outlet TASS citing Sergey Yazhan, chairman of the regional public oversight commission.
Yazhan told TASS on Tuesday that Navalny had arrived at the prison. However, Navalny's spokesperson Kira Yarmysh said on Twitter that despite media reports Navalny's team had not received confirmation of his transfer to Melekhovo.
The move is in line with the judge's orders at his sentencing in March, when a Moscow court sentenced Navalny to a further nine years in a maximum-security prison. He was convicted on fraud charges by Moscow's Lefortovo court over allegations that he stole from his Anti-Corruption Foundation.
Navalny had mentioned the expected move in a Telegram post in May, writing darkly that he had heard a "prison within a prison" awaited him at Melekhovo.
"My sentence has not yet entered into force, but the prisoners from the strict regime colony Melekhovo write that they are equipping a 'prison within a prison' for me," he wrote...
https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/14/europe/alexey-navalny-prison-transfer-intl/index....
133margd
Several popes have consecrated Russia (per Our Lady of Fatima), which was supposed to bring about world peace. In (1990?), Gorbachev, NATO, and US got the job done. Thirty years later, Putin, having taken power, invades neighbouring country, and it's the fault of US and NATO? Vatican doesn't any constructive contributions apparently? Where IS the Blessed Mother? Hope next apparition, she is carrying a rolled up newspaper!
134John5918
>133 margd:
I think you're misconstruing what the pope is actually saying. It's worth reading his comments in full, perhaps.
I think you're misconstruing what the pope is actually saying. It's worth reading his comments in full, perhaps.
135margd
Russia’s Whitewash of the Death and Devastation in Mariupol
Polygraph | June 16, 2022
Russian Embassy in the U.K.
“The city was under Ukrainian yoke for eight years. On May 20, 2022, the last of Azov’s militants have surrendered. Mariupol was finally liberated from the Ukrainian nationalists.”
Source: Twitter, June 15, 2022
FALSE...
On June 15, the Russian Embassy in the United Kingdom posted a slick, three-minute video on Twitter titled, “Post-War Mariupol: Long Way to Rebirth.”
...Images in the video present Russia as liberator and peaceful rebuilder of the city, even as they show the ruins of residential buildings and widespread destruction from Russian bombardments and shelling.
Instead, Kyiv is blamed as an “occupier and oppressor.”
What really happened?...
https://www.polygraph.info/a/fact-check-russia-whitewash-of-the-death-and-devast...
Polygraph | June 16, 2022
Russian Embassy in the U.K.
“The city was under Ukrainian yoke for eight years. On May 20, 2022, the last of Azov’s militants have surrendered. Mariupol was finally liberated from the Ukrainian nationalists.”
Source: Twitter, June 15, 2022
FALSE...
On June 15, the Russian Embassy in the United Kingdom posted a slick, three-minute video on Twitter titled, “Post-War Mariupol: Long Way to Rebirth.”
...Images in the video present Russia as liberator and peaceful rebuilder of the city, even as they show the ruins of residential buildings and widespread destruction from Russian bombardments and shelling.
Instead, Kyiv is blamed as an “occupier and oppressor.”
What really happened?...
https://www.polygraph.info/a/fact-check-russia-whitewash-of-the-death-and-devast...
136margd
Michael McFaul McFaul | 1:45 AM · Jun 20, 2022:
Stanford prof, frmr US ambassador to Russia
Putins army in Donbas has much great firepower than the Ukrainian army. Leaders of the free world must act faster to alter this balance of power in favor of Ukraine. It’s just that simple.
Stanford prof, frmr US ambassador to Russia
Putins army in Donbas has much great firepower than the Ukrainian army. Leaders of the free world must act faster to alter this balance of power in favor of Ukraine. It’s just that simple.
137margd
Ostap Yarysh @OstapYarysh | 12:08 PM · Jun 20, 2022:
Journalist and anchor at the Ukrainian service of @VOANews. Currently in DC.
"All our hope is in the famine", says lead Kremlin propagandist Margarita Simonyan. She openly admits that Russia doesn't want to resolve the food crisis. On the contrary, Russia is interested in it, deliberately starving people in Africa and Asia to achieve its political goals.
Quote Tweet
UkraineWorld @ukraine_world | 11:46 AM · Jun 20, 2022:
Ukraine in English: news, analysis, podcasts, videos. Run by @InternewsUA.
"The famine will start now and they will lift the sanctions and be friends with us, because they will realize that it's impossible not to be friends with us," - said Kremlin propagandist Margarita Simonyan during the Petersburg Economic Forum. ...
0:26 ( https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1538911097138331648 )
Journalist and anchor at the Ukrainian service of @VOANews. Currently in DC.
"All our hope is in the famine", says lead Kremlin propagandist Margarita Simonyan. She openly admits that Russia doesn't want to resolve the food crisis. On the contrary, Russia is interested in it, deliberately starving people in Africa and Asia to achieve its political goals.
Quote Tweet
UkraineWorld @ukraine_world | 11:46 AM · Jun 20, 2022:
Ukraine in English: news, analysis, podcasts, videos. Run by @InternewsUA.
"The famine will start now and they will lift the sanctions and be friends with us, because they will realize that it's impossible not to be friends with us," - said Kremlin propagandist Margarita Simonyan during the Petersburg Economic Forum. ...
0:26 ( https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1538911097138331648 )
138margd
George Conway🌻@gtconway3d | 1:08 PM · Jun 19, 2022:
If Putin did this to Gordon Brown, imagine what he may have done to Donald Trump.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Gordon Brown reveals Vladimir Putin threatened him during an official visit to Moscow in 2006, made him sit on a very low seat and read a dossier of information he had collected on the then Chancellor (PM?)- as he says the West has failed to stand up to the Russian leader
Ex Prime Minister Gordon Brown says Putin threatened him in Moscow in 2006
Putin read information to prove he knew more about Brown than he knew himself
Mr Brown believes Putin only responds to 'uncompromising show of strength'
He slammed 'global disunity' as 150 countries failed to impose Russian sanctions...
Michael Powell and Stewart Carr | 18 June 2022
https://dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10930999/Gordon-Brown-claims-West-failed-st...
If Putin did this to Gordon Brown, imagine what he may have done to Donald Trump.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Gordon Brown reveals Vladimir Putin threatened him during an official visit to Moscow in 2006, made him sit on a very low seat and read a dossier of information he had collected on the then Chancellor (PM?)- as he says the West has failed to stand up to the Russian leader
Ex Prime Minister Gordon Brown says Putin threatened him in Moscow in 2006
Putin read information to prove he knew more about Brown than he knew himself
Mr Brown believes Putin only responds to 'uncompromising show of strength'
He slammed 'global disunity' as 150 countries failed to impose Russian sanctions...
Michael Powell and Stewart Carr | 18 June 2022
https://dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10930999/Gordon-Brown-claims-West-failed-st...
139margd
In first thread Gen Hertling analyzes battlefield.
In second, Silverado's Dmitri Alperovitch looks at attrition on both sides--and how coming famine, heating season, recession will be played by Putin in negotiations.
In third, Rand Corp's Dara Massicot examines schedule for Russian conscripts.
Mark Hertling @MarkHertling
Retired general, US Army in Europe
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1539043835719962628
I've been hesitant to write a 🧵on the current tactical situation & what might happen next. But @DAlperovitch's view of potential outcomes (RT below*) cause me to weigh in.
His view is plausible, but I don't believe it accurately portrays the current situation. 1/
In both the Donbas & Kherson, it appears the RU are following their playbook.
1. Russian Massive Arty barrages
2. Russian Attempts Recon in Force (RIF)
3. Russian targets civilians
4. RU focus on logistics build/regeneration
5. RU lacks Combined Arms Operation action 2/
At the same time, UKR is required to slightly adapt their tactics & operational design
1. UA conducts close counterfire fight vs RU arty
2. UA thwarts RU RIF
3. UA incorporating arms & logistics from West
4. UA employs limited Combined Arms capability. 3/...
In going down each attribute of "Power," it's apparent there are a few RU changes:
RU arty a critical factor
RU supply lines & C2 are more compressed, but still not effective
RU equipment losses & resupply operations have been horrific
RU morale plummeted.
& others... 5/
UA has also experienced change:
Leadership has proven adaptable
UA gradually receiving more equipment
Supply lines are extended, but still operational
Morale of force still high, but soldiers are fatigued
Support of citizens and allies still solid. 6/
In watching the battles, I'm also paying attention to the personnel situation in the east & the emerging resistance in the Kherson Oblast.
Specifically, after the Kyiv fight, many of us said the RU would not be able to reconstitute. I don't think they have 8/
Regeneration is hard under favorable circumstances. And RU doesn't have favorable circumstances
RU morale & psychological conditions are extremely low & not improving. Outlets are reporting poor conditions & extremely bad leadership. 9/
Signal intercepts provide assessments of poor unit staffing, personnel shortages due to KIA/WIA, refusals by entire units to go into the line, mutiny, desertions, no wages & food, no replacements.
A reason for less battlefield damage is RU forces are moving forward? 10/
(margd--RU arty has more range, so staying out of UA range?)
IMHO, that may be because they can't...or they won't...attack in force.
The Donbas fight has been a slugfest for over 2 months, so an expectation would be advancement on one side or the other. That's not happened. 11/
RU fires arty barrages, UA withdraws & repositions.
RU attempts a RIF (Reduction in Force) with limited tanks/infantry, UA counterattacks.
UA ground forces move forward, RU again attacks with arty.
RU attempts to occupy cities but can't secure the ground...UA retakes urban ground.12/
All the while, RU continues to lose personnel and some equipment. UA takes casualties and is fatigued but less so...
and the will and morale remain on UA side.
As they garner new equipment, UA will increasingly gain the advantage. 13/
Sievierodonetsk, Popasna, Dibrivne (near Izyum), Rubizhne, Zaporizhzyha have all seen this punch-counterpunch action.
It's a heavyweight boxing match. In 2 months of fighting, there has not yet been a knockout blow.
It will come, as RU forces become more depleted. 14/
What's occuring in Kherson is fascinating, as the resistance/territorials are doing what resistance fighters do...drain the occupiers with attacks on small groups of occupiers.
That strikes terror in an enemy, and it will cause an increasing draw of RU forces to the south.15/
RU manpower will continue to deplete. UA resources will continue to grow.
The west must keep up the support. 16/16
--------------------------------------------------------
* Dmitri Alperovitch @DAlperovitch | 4:51 PM · Jun 20, 2022:
Focus: Geopolitics, National Security, Great Power Competition, Cybersecurity. Chairman @SilveradoPolicy; Founder @alperovitch; Co-Founder @CrowdStrike
🧵 https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1538987949592875010
Two months ago I said that the fight for the Donbas would have little bearing on the outcome of the war Now as that fight moves into its attritional phase, Putin's evolving strategy is becoming quite clear. He believes time is on his side. And he may be right
...But given that the Ukrainians have (quite understandably) little interest in compromising with Russia, Putin knows he needs to increase his leverage before restarting the talks. And his best option for that is to prolong the war at least until winter
Putin is betting that he can sustain some level of combat readiness of his forces through shadow mobilization: compelled contractor signups, outright forced recruitment of Chechens and LNR/DNR males of fighting age and other similar methods**
Why is winter likely the earliest time for ending the hostilities?
That's when the impact of the Black Sea blockade and the games that Putin is playing with Europe's gas supply will really start to have a major impact on the West (and everyone else)
The food crisis precipitated by Ukraine's inability to export grain due to the blockade is likely to cause famine in some regions, contribute to global geopolitical instability and further exacerbate already rising inflation...
The Russians understand this leverage well and are not hesitant to gloat about it...
At the same time, due to Russian gas cutoffs (for refusal to pay in rubles or pipeline 'maintenance'), EU gas storage inventories are at 50% capacity and continuing to drop as EU taps into them
Prospect of rationing of gas this winter seems very likely...
Meanwhile, worsening inflation in energy and food prices and rising interest rates will almost certainly drive US and EU economies into recession early next year, if not earlier
The Russians are betting that the West's willingness to spend tens of billions of dollars on aid to Ukraine will diminish as the economic situation worsens
And without Western financial and military support, Ukraine's position will become untenable
And while the Russian economy is also contracting, the Russian state itself is flush with cash due to high energy prices. If the sanctions aren't lifted, the economic prospects for Russia are bleak in the long term—but they can do ok for quite some time
So, Putin likely believes that if Russia can hold onto most of its land gains in Donbas, Kherzon and Zaporizhzhia, he will be in a good position in ~6 months time to extract significant concessions from Ukraine
Putin's absolute minimal ask for lifting the blockade will likely be the lifting of the most impactful sanctions (eg. bank sanctions and chips import ban) and a ceasefire that would establish his de facto control over captured territory. But it is likely he will ask for much more
While it is obviously not in Zelensky's direct power to lift the sanctions placed on Russia, the reality is that if he were to ask the US and EU to do so as part of a negotiated settlement with Russia, they would almost certainly acquiesce
It is impossible to know whether or not Putin will achieve these goals, and the outcome is contingent on how dire the global food and energy crisis becomes—as well as on the willingness of the US, UK, France and Germany to keep financing Ukraine's fight
The West's willingness to continue the supply of large quantities of military aid will also likely depend on the Ukrainian military's ability to demonstrate that it can use that aid to push back the Russia forces and retake back their territory
If Ukrainian counteroffensives against Russian entrenched positions do not succeed in the next 6 months, they may well find the critical supplies of ammunition and weapons systems drying up, leaving them little choice but to go into a negotiation with Russia with a weak hand
Putin's hope is that he can hold on to the territory he has taken thus far and perhaps make some more incremental gains in the Donbas in the next 6 months
Ukraine must not allow him to succeed—or else its situation will get progressively worse with time
END
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
**Quote Tweet
Dara Massicot @MassDara · 17h
Senior policy researcher at @RANDCorporation focusing on defense issues in Russia.
https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1538942863790297091
Based on conscription cycles, the Russian military has 3-4 months to convince conscripts in units right now to convert to contract service, so they can legally fight in Ukraine. Fall conscripts will be discharged on a rolling basis starting in September. (1/3)
I expect the pressure from Moscow to make contract quotas in VDV and Ground Forces units will be increasingly intense and coercive as fall approaches. Some will want to sign up for patriotism, be with friends or avenge friends. Some will be coerced. Some will ignore pressure (2/3
Russia is offering short-term direct contract service enrollments and reserve call ups to boost numbers as a stop gap. training time is insufficient. Conscripts from spring 2022 won’t be eligible to convert until late fall at the earliest. (3/3)
In second, Silverado's Dmitri Alperovitch looks at attrition on both sides--and how coming famine, heating season, recession will be played by Putin in negotiations.
In third, Rand Corp's Dara Massicot examines schedule for Russian conscripts.
Mark Hertling @MarkHertling
Retired general, US Army in Europe
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1539043835719962628
I've been hesitant to write a 🧵on the current tactical situation & what might happen next. But @DAlperovitch's view of potential outcomes (RT below*) cause me to weigh in.
His view is plausible, but I don't believe it accurately portrays the current situation. 1/
In both the Donbas & Kherson, it appears the RU are following their playbook.
1. Russian Massive Arty barrages
2. Russian Attempts Recon in Force (RIF)
3. Russian targets civilians
4. RU focus on logistics build/regeneration
5. RU lacks Combined Arms Operation action 2/
At the same time, UKR is required to slightly adapt their tactics & operational design
1. UA conducts close counterfire fight vs RU arty
2. UA thwarts RU RIF
3. UA incorporating arms & logistics from West
4. UA employs limited Combined Arms capability. 3/...
In going down each attribute of "Power," it's apparent there are a few RU changes:
RU arty a critical factor
RU supply lines & C2 are more compressed, but still not effective
RU equipment losses & resupply operations have been horrific
RU morale plummeted.
& others... 5/
UA has also experienced change:
Leadership has proven adaptable
UA gradually receiving more equipment
Supply lines are extended, but still operational
Morale of force still high, but soldiers are fatigued
Support of citizens and allies still solid. 6/
In watching the battles, I'm also paying attention to the personnel situation in the east & the emerging resistance in the Kherson Oblast.
Specifically, after the Kyiv fight, many of us said the RU would not be able to reconstitute. I don't think they have 8/
Regeneration is hard under favorable circumstances. And RU doesn't have favorable circumstances
RU morale & psychological conditions are extremely low & not improving. Outlets are reporting poor conditions & extremely bad leadership. 9/
Signal intercepts provide assessments of poor unit staffing, personnel shortages due to KIA/WIA, refusals by entire units to go into the line, mutiny, desertions, no wages & food, no replacements.
A reason for less battlefield damage is RU forces are moving forward? 10/
(margd--RU arty has more range, so staying out of UA range?)
IMHO, that may be because they can't...or they won't...attack in force.
The Donbas fight has been a slugfest for over 2 months, so an expectation would be advancement on one side or the other. That's not happened. 11/
RU fires arty barrages, UA withdraws & repositions.
RU attempts a RIF (Reduction in Force) with limited tanks/infantry, UA counterattacks.
UA ground forces move forward, RU again attacks with arty.
RU attempts to occupy cities but can't secure the ground...UA retakes urban ground.12/
All the while, RU continues to lose personnel and some equipment. UA takes casualties and is fatigued but less so...
and the will and morale remain on UA side.
As they garner new equipment, UA will increasingly gain the advantage. 13/
Sievierodonetsk, Popasna, Dibrivne (near Izyum), Rubizhne, Zaporizhzyha have all seen this punch-counterpunch action.
It's a heavyweight boxing match. In 2 months of fighting, there has not yet been a knockout blow.
It will come, as RU forces become more depleted. 14/
What's occuring in Kherson is fascinating, as the resistance/territorials are doing what resistance fighters do...drain the occupiers with attacks on small groups of occupiers.
That strikes terror in an enemy, and it will cause an increasing draw of RU forces to the south.15/
RU manpower will continue to deplete. UA resources will continue to grow.
The west must keep up the support. 16/16
--------------------------------------------------------
* Dmitri Alperovitch @DAlperovitch | 4:51 PM · Jun 20, 2022:
Focus: Geopolitics, National Security, Great Power Competition, Cybersecurity. Chairman @SilveradoPolicy; Founder @alperovitch; Co-Founder @CrowdStrike
🧵 https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1538987949592875010
Two months ago I said that the fight for the Donbas would have little bearing on the outcome of the war Now as that fight moves into its attritional phase, Putin's evolving strategy is becoming quite clear. He believes time is on his side. And he may be right
...But given that the Ukrainians have (quite understandably) little interest in compromising with Russia, Putin knows he needs to increase his leverage before restarting the talks. And his best option for that is to prolong the war at least until winter
Putin is betting that he can sustain some level of combat readiness of his forces through shadow mobilization: compelled contractor signups, outright forced recruitment of Chechens and LNR/DNR males of fighting age and other similar methods**
Why is winter likely the earliest time for ending the hostilities?
That's when the impact of the Black Sea blockade and the games that Putin is playing with Europe's gas supply will really start to have a major impact on the West (and everyone else)
The food crisis precipitated by Ukraine's inability to export grain due to the blockade is likely to cause famine in some regions, contribute to global geopolitical instability and further exacerbate already rising inflation...
The Russians understand this leverage well and are not hesitant to gloat about it...
At the same time, due to Russian gas cutoffs (for refusal to pay in rubles or pipeline 'maintenance'), EU gas storage inventories are at 50% capacity and continuing to drop as EU taps into them
Prospect of rationing of gas this winter seems very likely...
Meanwhile, worsening inflation in energy and food prices and rising interest rates will almost certainly drive US and EU economies into recession early next year, if not earlier
The Russians are betting that the West's willingness to spend tens of billions of dollars on aid to Ukraine will diminish as the economic situation worsens
And without Western financial and military support, Ukraine's position will become untenable
And while the Russian economy is also contracting, the Russian state itself is flush with cash due to high energy prices. If the sanctions aren't lifted, the economic prospects for Russia are bleak in the long term—but they can do ok for quite some time
So, Putin likely believes that if Russia can hold onto most of its land gains in Donbas, Kherzon and Zaporizhzhia, he will be in a good position in ~6 months time to extract significant concessions from Ukraine
Putin's absolute minimal ask for lifting the blockade will likely be the lifting of the most impactful sanctions (eg. bank sanctions and chips import ban) and a ceasefire that would establish his de facto control over captured territory. But it is likely he will ask for much more
While it is obviously not in Zelensky's direct power to lift the sanctions placed on Russia, the reality is that if he were to ask the US and EU to do so as part of a negotiated settlement with Russia, they would almost certainly acquiesce
It is impossible to know whether or not Putin will achieve these goals, and the outcome is contingent on how dire the global food and energy crisis becomes—as well as on the willingness of the US, UK, France and Germany to keep financing Ukraine's fight
The West's willingness to continue the supply of large quantities of military aid will also likely depend on the Ukrainian military's ability to demonstrate that it can use that aid to push back the Russia forces and retake back their territory
If Ukrainian counteroffensives against Russian entrenched positions do not succeed in the next 6 months, they may well find the critical supplies of ammunition and weapons systems drying up, leaving them little choice but to go into a negotiation with Russia with a weak hand
Putin's hope is that he can hold on to the territory he has taken thus far and perhaps make some more incremental gains in the Donbas in the next 6 months
Ukraine must not allow him to succeed—or else its situation will get progressively worse with time
END
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
**Quote Tweet
Dara Massicot @MassDara · 17h
Senior policy researcher at @RANDCorporation focusing on defense issues in Russia.
https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1538942863790297091
Based on conscription cycles, the Russian military has 3-4 months to convince conscripts in units right now to convert to contract service, so they can legally fight in Ukraine. Fall conscripts will be discharged on a rolling basis starting in September. (1/3)
I expect the pressure from Moscow to make contract quotas in VDV and Ground Forces units will be increasingly intense and coercive as fall approaches. Some will want to sign up for patriotism, be with friends or avenge friends. Some will be coerced. Some will ignore pressure (2/3
Russia is offering short-term direct contract service enrollments and reserve call ups to boost numbers as a stop gap. training time is insufficient. Conscripts from spring 2022 won’t be eligible to convert until late fall at the earliest. (3/3)
140margd
Fact Check: Does Russian Ruble Rise Prove Western Sanctions Don't Work?
Yevgeny Kuklychev | 6/23/22
The Claim
Dozens of high-profile accounts have commented on the recent rise of the Russian ruble, which Bloomberg and other finance-focused publications have hailed as the best-performing currency in the world this year.
...The Facts...
https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-does-russian-ruble-rise-prove-western-sancti...
Yevgeny Kuklychev | 6/23/22
The Claim
Dozens of high-profile accounts have commented on the recent rise of the Russian ruble, which Bloomberg and other finance-focused publications have hailed as the best-performing currency in the world this year.
...The Facts...
https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-does-russian-ruble-rise-prove-western-sancti...
141margd
Russia will soon exhaust its combat capabilities, Western assessments predict
Small shifts in territorial control matter less than the overall balance of forces, which analysts say could shift back in favor of Ukraine in the coming months
Liz Sly | June 25, 2022
...“creeping” advances are dependent almost entirely on the expenditure of vast quantities of ammunition, notably artillery shells, which are being fired at a rate almost no military in the world would be able to sustain for long...
The Russians still have the advantage over Ukrainian forces, who are suffering, too. Ukrainian officials put the number of their soldiers killed in action at as many as 200 a day. The Ukrainians have also almost entirely run out of the Soviet-era ammunition on which their own weapons systems rely, and they are still in the process of transitioning to Western systems.
Ukraine is running out of ammunition as prospects on the battlefield dim
But conditions for Ukrainian troops are only likely to improve as more sophisticated Western weapons arrive, while those of Russian forces can be expected to deteriorate as they dig deeper into their stocks of old, outdated equipment, said retired Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. forces in Europe who is now with the Center for European Policy Analysis. At some point in the coming months, the Ukrainians will have received enough Western weaponry that it is likely they will be able to go on the counteroffensive and reverse the tide of the war, he said...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/25/ukraine-russia-balance-of-forces...
Small shifts in territorial control matter less than the overall balance of forces, which analysts say could shift back in favor of Ukraine in the coming months
Liz Sly | June 25, 2022
...“creeping” advances are dependent almost entirely on the expenditure of vast quantities of ammunition, notably artillery shells, which are being fired at a rate almost no military in the world would be able to sustain for long...
The Russians still have the advantage over Ukrainian forces, who are suffering, too. Ukrainian officials put the number of their soldiers killed in action at as many as 200 a day. The Ukrainians have also almost entirely run out of the Soviet-era ammunition on which their own weapons systems rely, and they are still in the process of transitioning to Western systems.
Ukraine is running out of ammunition as prospects on the battlefield dim
But conditions for Ukrainian troops are only likely to improve as more sophisticated Western weapons arrive, while those of Russian forces can be expected to deteriorate as they dig deeper into their stocks of old, outdated equipment, said retired Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. forces in Europe who is now with the Center for European Policy Analysis. At some point in the coming months, the Ukrainians will have received enough Western weaponry that it is likely they will be able to go on the counteroffensive and reverse the tide of the war, he said...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/25/ukraine-russia-balance-of-forces...
142margd
The Lord works in mysterious ways:
Euromaidan Press @EuromaidanPress | 9:59 AM · Jun 25, 2022
News and views from Ukraine.
Patriarch Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox church, slipped on the holy water during the service.
Kirill blamed liberal values for Russia’s bloody invasion of Ukraine, blessed Putin’s war for a “quick” victory over Ukraine. More: https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/03/22/how-the-russian-orthodox-church-enabled-p...
0:11 ( https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1540696107604393985 )
From Oleksandra Matviichuk
Euromaidan Press @EuromaidanPress | 9:59 AM · Jun 25, 2022
News and views from Ukraine.
Patriarch Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox church, slipped on the holy water during the service.
Kirill blamed liberal values for Russia’s bloody invasion of Ukraine, blessed Putin’s war for a “quick” victory over Ukraine. More: https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/03/22/how-the-russian-orthodox-church-enabled-p...
0:11 ( https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1540696107604393985 )
From Oleksandra Matviichuk
143margd
Bruno Tertrais @BrunoTertrais | 7:10 AM · Jun 26, 2022:
Deputy Director, (France's Foundation for Strategic Research) @FRS_org . Also Adviser for geopolitics, (Institut Montaigne
) @i_montaigne . World affairs, strategy and stuff.
Recall that this was apparently a deliberate strike on a residential area with no known military value. Also known as war crime.
Quote Tweet
Andrei Kurkov @AKurkov · 55m
Kyiv this morning after 14 missile strikes. The 6 years old girl was operated and survived, father is dead, mother who is citizen of Russia - apparently freed from debris of destroyed block of flats, no more info yet.
Photo of rescue workers w little girl on stretcher ( https://twitter.com/AKurkov/status/1541012681443999749/photo/1 )
Deputy Director, (France's Foundation for Strategic Research) @FRS_org . Also Adviser for geopolitics, (Institut Montaigne
) @i_montaigne . World affairs, strategy and stuff.
Recall that this was apparently a deliberate strike on a residential area with no known military value. Also known as war crime.
Quote Tweet
Andrei Kurkov @AKurkov · 55m
Kyiv this morning after 14 missile strikes. The 6 years old girl was operated and survived, father is dead, mother who is citizen of Russia - apparently freed from debris of destroyed block of flats, no more info yet.
Photo of rescue workers w little girl on stretcher ( https://twitter.com/AKurkov/status/1541012681443999749/photo/1 )
144Doug1943
Of course, Ukraine will eventually be, if not destroyed and eaten up by Russia completely, certainly deeply mutilated. Cities destroyed, many dead, a large chunk of its historic territory taken by Russia.
This is just the inevitable outcome of what the Soviets used to call, "The relationship of forces".
Absolutely predictable. And Russia's response, if Ukraine looked like joining NATO, was predicted, by many smart people, many years ago, over and over.
So ... the only question is: when the Americans encouraged Ukraine to embark on their course of agonizing, extended national suicide .... did they know this would happen, and did it anyway? Or were the decision-makers in Washington so light-minded and irresponsible that they just didn't care? Or were they so ignorant and stupid that they thought the Russians would give in?
As for the Ukrainian leadership ... guys, didn't you see what happened to the Georgians? Pushed by the Americans to confront the Russians, and then left to twist in the wind? Did you think all that American money being laundered in Ukraine would make the Yanks risk WWIII for you, when they wouldn't for Georgia?
This is just the inevitable outcome of what the Soviets used to call, "The relationship of forces".
Absolutely predictable. And Russia's response, if Ukraine looked like joining NATO, was predicted, by many smart people, many years ago, over and over.
So ... the only question is: when the Americans encouraged Ukraine to embark on their course of agonizing, extended national suicide .... did they know this would happen, and did it anyway? Or were the decision-makers in Washington so light-minded and irresponsible that they just didn't care? Or were they so ignorant and stupid that they thought the Russians would give in?
As for the Ukrainian leadership ... guys, didn't you see what happened to the Georgians? Pushed by the Americans to confront the Russians, and then left to twist in the wind? Did you think all that American money being laundered in Ukraine would make the Yanks risk WWIII for you, when they wouldn't for Georgia?
145margd
>143 margd: contd.
Mark Hertling @MarkHertling | 8:57 AM · Jun 26, 2022:
Retired General. US Army in Europe
Russian Kalibre (cruise) missiles hit an apartment building & kindergarten in Kyiv.
I sure would like to sit in on a Russian targeting meeting to figure out what “intelligence” or “military purpose” drive their commanders to order a strike on these targets.
It makes no sense.
Tomaburque (cranky old Marine) @tomaburque:
It was to express Putin's displease at advanced artillery we supplied (HIMARS) and make some noise during G7.
Greg sierocinski @Gregsiero:
(Amateur Historian specializing in WW2 Eastern European conflict)
Mark, the little girls mum was a Russian journo living in Kyiv. A few weeks ago a war journalist was also killed in this building. The building is dialled in….
Mark Hertling @MarkHertling | 8:57 AM · Jun 26, 2022:
Retired General. US Army in Europe
Russian Kalibre (cruise) missiles hit an apartment building & kindergarten in Kyiv.
I sure would like to sit in on a Russian targeting meeting to figure out what “intelligence” or “military purpose” drive their commanders to order a strike on these targets.
It makes no sense.
Tomaburque (cranky old Marine) @tomaburque:
It was to express Putin's displease at advanced artillery we supplied (HIMARS) and make some noise during G7.
Greg sierocinski @Gregsiero:
(Amateur Historian specializing in WW2 Eastern European conflict)
Mark, the little girls mum was a Russian journo living in Kyiv. A few weeks ago a war journalist was also killed in this building. The building is dialled in….
146John5918
Some hard thoughts about post Ukraine (Graham Fuller)
Field Notes From Ukraine: A New York Paramedic Immersed in the Horrors of War (Pass Blue)
The war in Ukraine has dragged on long enough now to reveal certain clear trajectories... Putin is to be condemned for launching this war– as is virtually any leader who launches any war. Putin can be termed a war criminal–in good company with George W. Bush who has killed vastly greater numbers than Putin... secondary condemnation belongs to the US (NATO) in deliberately provoking a war with Russia by implacably pushing its hostile military organization, despite Moscow’s repeated notifications about crossing red lines, right up to the gates of Russia. This war did not have to be if Ukranian neutrality, á la Finland and Austria, had been accepted. Instead Washington has called for clear Russian defeat...
Contrary to Washington’s triumphalist pronouncements, Russia is winning the war, Ukraine has lost the war. Any longer-term damage to Russia is open to debate. American sanctions against Russia have turned out to be far more devastating to Europe than to Russia. The global economy has slowed and many developing nations face serious food shortages and risk of broad starvation. There are already deep cracks in the European façade of so-called “NATO unity”... Contrary to optimistic declarations, NATO may in fact ultimately emerge weakened... Europe already perceives the US as a declining power with an erratic and hypocritical foreign policy “vision” premised upon the desperate need to preserve “American leadership” in the world... One of the most disturbing features of this US-Russian struggle in Ukraine has been the utter corruption of independent media. Indeed Washington has won the information and propaganda war hands down, orchestrating all Western media to sing from the same hymnbook in characterizing the Ukraine war... Finally, Russia’s geopolitical character has very likely now decisively tilted towards Eurasia. Russians have sought for centuries to be accepted within Europe but have been consistently held at arms length...
Field Notes From Ukraine: A New York Paramedic Immersed in the Horrors of War (Pass Blue)
I am a retired paramedic formerly with the New York City Fire Department. I now occasionally do nongovernmental organization-volunteer work overseas. In 2017, I worked with NYC Medics in Iraq during the battle to retake Mosul. Last year, I spent time with a medical team bringing care to migrants on the Texas-Mexico border. At the end of May, I went to Lviv, Ukraine, to volunteer with an NGO doing medical evacuations, Global Response Management. We took patients out by road to care centers within Ukraine and other European countries. Almost all of our patients had trauma injuries from the continuing battles on the Russian front in eastern Ukraine — the Donbas region, which is the current center of fighting in the war. I worked alongside two amazing female paramedics from Alaska and an equally impressive female nurse/paramedic from Illinois. Here are the field notes I wrote during part of my stay...
147margd
Oh yeah, give in to this boy. Kumbaya will make him reconsider. NOT!
ian bremmer @ianbremmer | 11:17 AM · Jun 27, 2022:
russia bombs a shopping mall with over 1000 civilians inside.
putin daring west to respond with his war crimes, escalation during g7/nato summit.
0:10 ( https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1541440699043913728 )
From Natalie Kovaliova
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Officials: Russian missile strike hits crowded shopping mall
Yuras Karmanau and Francesca Ebel | June 27, 2022
Scores of civilians were feared killed or wounded in a Russian missile strike Monday on a crowded shopping mall in Ukraine’s central city of Kremenchuk, Ukrainian officials said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a Telegram post that the number of victims was “unimaginable,” citing reports that more than 1,000 civilians were inside at the time of the attack. Images from the scene showed giant plumes of black smoke from a shopping center engulfed in flames, as emergency crews rushed in and onlookers watched in distress...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russia-pouring-fire-on-ukrainian-city-as-of...
ian bremmer @ianbremmer | 11:17 AM · Jun 27, 2022:
russia bombs a shopping mall with over 1000 civilians inside.
putin daring west to respond with his war crimes, escalation during g7/nato summit.
0:10 ( https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1541440699043913728 )
From Natalie Kovaliova
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Officials: Russian missile strike hits crowded shopping mall
Yuras Karmanau and Francesca Ebel | June 27, 2022
Scores of civilians were feared killed or wounded in a Russian missile strike Monday on a crowded shopping mall in Ukraine’s central city of Kremenchuk, Ukrainian officials said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a Telegram post that the number of victims was “unimaginable,” citing reports that more than 1,000 civilians were inside at the time of the attack. Images from the scene showed giant plumes of black smoke from a shopping center engulfed in flames, as emergency crews rushed in and onlookers watched in distress...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russia-pouring-fire-on-ukrainian-city-as-of...
148John5918
>147 margd:
I'm not sure what your reference to Kumbaya is supposed to mean, but I assume it is disparaging?
I'm not sure what your reference to Kumbaya is supposed to mean, but I assume it is disparaging?
149ljbryant
>148 John5918: Kumbaya is from a song - Kumbaya, My Lord - possibly originating from Gullah dialect. The Gullah are a group descended from black slaves in the southeastern USA, mostly Georgia and Florida. Kumbaya comes from "come by here" and is an invitation and a plea.
In American idiom, this is frequently used to refer to the peace at all costs ideal. It can be derogatory or not, depending on the speaker.
In this case, the reference was basically a statement that peace at all costs with certain types of oppression is very simplistic and naive.
In American idiom, this is frequently used to refer to the peace at all costs ideal. It can be derogatory or not, depending on the speaker.
In this case, the reference was basically a statement that peace at all costs with certain types of oppression is very simplistic and naive.
150John5918
>149 ljbryant:
Thanks, yes, I think I knew all that but I just wanted to check. I've sung Kumbaya often. I can't speak for US idioms, but I think the concept of a "peace at all costs ideal" is a bit of a straw person, and that the global nonviolence movement is anything but "simplistic and naive". Indeed it is the militaristic mindset which is "simplistic and naive", assuming that violence solves conflicts. We only have to look at many of the recent conflicts in the world, including Iraq and Afghanistan, to see how simplistic and naive it was to think that military interventions would resolve the issues.
Let me be clear. Nobody is condemning nor judging the Ukrainians for defending themselves against an aggressor. That's their right. Many nations have taken the knee-jerk reaction of providing weapons to the Ukrainians, which is perfectly understandable given that militarism is a default political culture in the world. Russia has rightly been condemned for its illegal actions, and a number of nonviolent mechanisms such as sanctions have been put in place.
But at the same time there are voices which are questioning the military bandwagon. Russia committed an illegal act, but it didn't come out of nowhere and it is important to understand the complex background. Financiers in UK, USA and elsewhere helped fund Putin's regime. NATO is now beginning to see its task not simply as helping Ukraine but as degrading the military capability of Russia. When the USSR expanded its sphere of influence into the USA's immediate neighbourhood in the early 1960s, the USA responded with a threat of nuclear war; is it surprising that Russia is now following a similar path when it sees NATO expanding into its own neighbourhood? Western countries have been invading others for centuries (think of colonialism, before the more recent spate of US military adventurism), without all of this moral outrage and sanctions; is it surprising that much of the non-aligned world which has suffered western invasions and occupations doesn't share the current moral outrage? None of this justifies Russia's illegal actions, but if we want the world to be a safer and more peaceful place we have to deal with the complexity and not reduce it to a simplistic and naive good-evil dualism.
Active and organised nonviolence is not pacifism and it is not a simplistic and naive way of doing nothing. Indeed many Ukrainians and Russians are already practicing nonviolent resistance, and many foreigners are finding ways of supporting it, whether by volunteering in nonviolent roles such as paramedics, or making solidarity visits to the war affected areas to raise morale and let the Ukrainians know they are not alone. Empirical research* suggests that nonviolent struggles succeed twice as often as violence, and of course there are cases where neither violence nor nonviolence succeeds. A post-struggle society is also far more likely to be peaceful, stable and human rights respecting than after a violent struggle. Would nonviolence work in this instance? Well, the answer is we will never know, because literally billions of dollars and a great deal of propaganda is being provided to support military efforts, while virtually no resources are being provided to support active and organised nonviolence. We need a global paradigm shift to move towards creating the political, social and economic conditions for justice, peace and stability in the world rather than propagating the current mentality that militaristic violence is the only tool at our disposal. It's a long term goal, and Ukraine is a current casualty of the world's failure to address these deeper issues.
* Why Civil Resistance Works by Erica Chenoweth and Maria J Stephan
Thanks, yes, I think I knew all that but I just wanted to check. I've sung Kumbaya often. I can't speak for US idioms, but I think the concept of a "peace at all costs ideal" is a bit of a straw person, and that the global nonviolence movement is anything but "simplistic and naive". Indeed it is the militaristic mindset which is "simplistic and naive", assuming that violence solves conflicts. We only have to look at many of the recent conflicts in the world, including Iraq and Afghanistan, to see how simplistic and naive it was to think that military interventions would resolve the issues.
Let me be clear. Nobody is condemning nor judging the Ukrainians for defending themselves against an aggressor. That's their right. Many nations have taken the knee-jerk reaction of providing weapons to the Ukrainians, which is perfectly understandable given that militarism is a default political culture in the world. Russia has rightly been condemned for its illegal actions, and a number of nonviolent mechanisms such as sanctions have been put in place.
But at the same time there are voices which are questioning the military bandwagon. Russia committed an illegal act, but it didn't come out of nowhere and it is important to understand the complex background. Financiers in UK, USA and elsewhere helped fund Putin's regime. NATO is now beginning to see its task not simply as helping Ukraine but as degrading the military capability of Russia. When the USSR expanded its sphere of influence into the USA's immediate neighbourhood in the early 1960s, the USA responded with a threat of nuclear war; is it surprising that Russia is now following a similar path when it sees NATO expanding into its own neighbourhood? Western countries have been invading others for centuries (think of colonialism, before the more recent spate of US military adventurism), without all of this moral outrage and sanctions; is it surprising that much of the non-aligned world which has suffered western invasions and occupations doesn't share the current moral outrage? None of this justifies Russia's illegal actions, but if we want the world to be a safer and more peaceful place we have to deal with the complexity and not reduce it to a simplistic and naive good-evil dualism.
Active and organised nonviolence is not pacifism and it is not a simplistic and naive way of doing nothing. Indeed many Ukrainians and Russians are already practicing nonviolent resistance, and many foreigners are finding ways of supporting it, whether by volunteering in nonviolent roles such as paramedics, or making solidarity visits to the war affected areas to raise morale and let the Ukrainians know they are not alone. Empirical research* suggests that nonviolent struggles succeed twice as often as violence, and of course there are cases where neither violence nor nonviolence succeeds. A post-struggle society is also far more likely to be peaceful, stable and human rights respecting than after a violent struggle. Would nonviolence work in this instance? Well, the answer is we will never know, because literally billions of dollars and a great deal of propaganda is being provided to support military efforts, while virtually no resources are being provided to support active and organised nonviolence. We need a global paradigm shift to move towards creating the political, social and economic conditions for justice, peace and stability in the world rather than propagating the current mentality that militaristic violence is the only tool at our disposal. It's a long term goal, and Ukraine is a current casualty of the world's failure to address these deeper issues.
* Why Civil Resistance Works by Erica Chenoweth and Maria J Stephan
151ljbryant
>150 John5918: I don't believe that violence often solves problems. As you said, Afghanistan and Iraq were wonderful demonstrations of exactly why violence is often a terrible idea. The United States is certainly not blameless -- Iraq was a money grab and had nothing to do with any genuine issue (weapons of mass destruction was a very thinly veiled excuse), and Afghanistan would almost certainly have never become a land of Shariah Law had the United States not left the country essentially destroyed, with no attempt to rebuild (despite our promises) the first time we were there in the 1980s. However, there is a difference between an attack and a resistance.
I, however, am not naïve enough to believe that all of the weapons and money being sunk into the Ukraine is purely a matter of charity. The Ukraine is, in many ways, similar to Afghanistan in the 80s -- they're part of a proxy war. However, I also believe the situation is quite complex, and the people of Ukraine have every right to defend themselves from what is, in addition to being a martial thread, also an existential one.
Violence was certainly necessary to end the Holocaust in the 1940s -- but had Germany not been stripped of everything after the first World War, it's possible that would not have been necessary.
As I said, it's complicated.
I, however, am not naïve enough to believe that all of the weapons and money being sunk into the Ukraine is purely a matter of charity. The Ukraine is, in many ways, similar to Afghanistan in the 80s -- they're part of a proxy war. However, I also believe the situation is quite complex, and the people of Ukraine have every right to defend themselves from what is, in addition to being a martial thread, also an existential one.
Violence was certainly necessary to end the Holocaust in the 1940s -- but had Germany not been stripped of everything after the first World War, it's possible that would not have been necessary.
As I said, it's complicated.
152John5918
>151 ljbryant:
Thanks. Yes, I don't think we're disagreeing about the essentials.
We'll never know whether nonviolent resistance could have ended the Nazi Holocaust, because it wasn't tried on any significant scale. But as you say, a little more magnanimity from the Great Powers after World War I might have prevented it. Again, we'll never know.
Thanks. Yes, I don't think we're disagreeing about the essentials.
We'll never know whether nonviolent resistance could have ended the Nazi Holocaust, because it wasn't tried on any significant scale. But as you say, a little more magnanimity from the Great Powers after World War I might have prevented it. Again, we'll never know.
153margd
Ukraine Grain Harvest Begins, Farmers Running Out of Storage Options
Keith Good | June 20, 2022
...“Wartime Harvest Starts in Ukraine But Silos Are Already Stuffed,” by Megan Durisin and Volodymyr Verbyany. Bloomberg News (June 19, 2022).
“Farmers are searching for alternatives to store the growing stockpiles while already worrying about how much they’ll be able to plant for the 2023 season.
That means Ukraine’s ability to supply the world with much-needed grain may be limited even once ports reopen — production is already expected to be sharply lower this year.
“Grain quality and yields would also suffer if crops are left longer in fields because of a lack of storage.”
Durisin and Verbyany added that, “Ukraine’s government expects grain production to fall about 40% versus 2021, after farmers lacked fertilizer or left land unsown. Even so, it’s carrying a backlog of 20 million tons into the season that starts next month.
“A fifth of its grain elevators have also been damaged or lost to territory occupied by Russian forces, according to Ukraine’s agriculture minister. That could leave farmers short of 10 to 15 million tons of storage by October.”
And yesterday, Wall Street Journal writers Alistair MacDonald and Thomas Grove reported that, “As Ukrainian farmers struggle to export grains and seeds from last year’s harvest, they are running out of space to store this year’s.
“With Ukraine’s Black Sea ports cut off by the war with Russia, Ukraine has found it hard to export much of its massive grain and seed production. Officials project they will be able to ship out around one-third of what they usually do.
“Because of the bottleneck, millions of metric tons of grain, soybean and oilseed are currently still in warehouses and silos that should be empty by now in anticipation of the new harvest, which has already begun and moves into high gear during the next month. The Ukrainian government estimates farmers need space for an additional 10 to 15 million tons of grain. That is equivalent to about 24% of this year’s expected crop.”
The Journal article noted that, “U.S. President Biden said last week that the U.S. will build temporary silos on Poland’s border with Ukraine. Poland’s minister of agriculture said that such a project, if details could be worked out, would take three to four months to complete. That time line would miss much of this season’s harvest.”
Reuters writer Michelle Nichols reported last week that, “Temporary silos on Ukraine’s border would be intended to prevent Russia from stealing Ukrainian grain and make sure the country’s winter harvest is not lost due to a lack of storage, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said on Thursday.
“But, during a visit to the United Nations, Vilsack stressed that reviving shipments from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports was the most effective and efficient way to export grain and urged Russia to take U.N.-led talks on the issue ‘seriously.'”
Meanwhile, Reuters writer Pavel Polityuk reported last week that, “Ukraine’s June 1-16 grain exports were down by around 43.5% from a year earlier to 695,000 tonnes, agriculture ministry data showed on Friday.”
Reuters writer John Irish reported last week that, “France’s president said on Friday he saw little chance of an agreement with Russia for now to get grain out the Ukrainian port of Odesa, but said there were talks to regenerate rail routes linking Odesa to the Danube in Romania as an alternative.”
And Claire Parker reported in Friday’s Washington Post that, “The war in Ukraine could push up the number of people facing acute food insecurity by 47 million this year, according to the United Nations.
“Some places are already feeling the effects of the grain crisis,” the Post article said, and went on to provide details regarding Nigeria, Somalia, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Yemen.
Elsewhere, Alistair MacDonald and Thomas Grove reported on the front page of Saturday’s Wall Street Journal that, “Last month, an armed group turned up at Dmitry Skorniakov’s farm close to Mariupol and told workers that the land was being ‘nationalized’ and now belonged to them.
“Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine has captured some of the most productive agricultural land in what is one of the world’s great breadbaskets, disrupting supplies and pushing up food prices. Russian forces have also stolen grain and equipment, the Ukrainian government and farmers say. Now, entire farms are being taken, some farmers say.
https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2022/06/ukraine-grain-harvest-begins-farmers...
Keith Good | June 20, 2022
...“Wartime Harvest Starts in Ukraine But Silos Are Already Stuffed,” by Megan Durisin and Volodymyr Verbyany. Bloomberg News (June 19, 2022).
“Farmers are searching for alternatives to store the growing stockpiles while already worrying about how much they’ll be able to plant for the 2023 season.
That means Ukraine’s ability to supply the world with much-needed grain may be limited even once ports reopen — production is already expected to be sharply lower this year.
“Grain quality and yields would also suffer if crops are left longer in fields because of a lack of storage.”
Durisin and Verbyany added that, “Ukraine’s government expects grain production to fall about 40% versus 2021, after farmers lacked fertilizer or left land unsown. Even so, it’s carrying a backlog of 20 million tons into the season that starts next month.
“A fifth of its grain elevators have also been damaged or lost to territory occupied by Russian forces, according to Ukraine’s agriculture minister. That could leave farmers short of 10 to 15 million tons of storage by October.”
And yesterday, Wall Street Journal writers Alistair MacDonald and Thomas Grove reported that, “As Ukrainian farmers struggle to export grains and seeds from last year’s harvest, they are running out of space to store this year’s.
“With Ukraine’s Black Sea ports cut off by the war with Russia, Ukraine has found it hard to export much of its massive grain and seed production. Officials project they will be able to ship out around one-third of what they usually do.
“Because of the bottleneck, millions of metric tons of grain, soybean and oilseed are currently still in warehouses and silos that should be empty by now in anticipation of the new harvest, which has already begun and moves into high gear during the next month. The Ukrainian government estimates farmers need space for an additional 10 to 15 million tons of grain. That is equivalent to about 24% of this year’s expected crop.”
The Journal article noted that, “U.S. President Biden said last week that the U.S. will build temporary silos on Poland’s border with Ukraine. Poland’s minister of agriculture said that such a project, if details could be worked out, would take three to four months to complete. That time line would miss much of this season’s harvest.”
Reuters writer Michelle Nichols reported last week that, “Temporary silos on Ukraine’s border would be intended to prevent Russia from stealing Ukrainian grain and make sure the country’s winter harvest is not lost due to a lack of storage, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said on Thursday.
“But, during a visit to the United Nations, Vilsack stressed that reviving shipments from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports was the most effective and efficient way to export grain and urged Russia to take U.N.-led talks on the issue ‘seriously.'”
Meanwhile, Reuters writer Pavel Polityuk reported last week that, “Ukraine’s June 1-16 grain exports were down by around 43.5% from a year earlier to 695,000 tonnes, agriculture ministry data showed on Friday.”
Reuters writer John Irish reported last week that, “France’s president said on Friday he saw little chance of an agreement with Russia for now to get grain out the Ukrainian port of Odesa, but said there were talks to regenerate rail routes linking Odesa to the Danube in Romania as an alternative.”
And Claire Parker reported in Friday’s Washington Post that, “The war in Ukraine could push up the number of people facing acute food insecurity by 47 million this year, according to the United Nations.
“Some places are already feeling the effects of the grain crisis,” the Post article said, and went on to provide details regarding Nigeria, Somalia, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Yemen.
Elsewhere, Alistair MacDonald and Thomas Grove reported on the front page of Saturday’s Wall Street Journal that, “Last month, an armed group turned up at Dmitry Skorniakov’s farm close to Mariupol and told workers that the land was being ‘nationalized’ and now belonged to them.
“Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine has captured some of the most productive agricultural land in what is one of the world’s great breadbaskets, disrupting supplies and pushing up food prices. Russian forces have also stolen grain and equipment, the Ukrainian government and farmers say. Now, entire farms are being taken, some farmers say.
https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2022/06/ukraine-grain-harvest-begins-farmers...
154Doug1943
Pacifism, the 'global nonviolence movement' is silly. Nonviolence a la Gandhi can sometimes work, if the people it's used against are relatively civilized, and may be the best solution. It's what the Palestinians should have used against the Israelis.
But in general, all serious conflicts of interest are settled by force, of which actual war is the ultimate example. Fascism was established by force, and destroyed by force. Slavery was enabled by force, and then the slave trade was prohibited by force, and destroyed in the US by force.
However, this does NOT mean that war -- either civil war or inter-state war -- is always a wise idea. In fact, it should only be a last resort, unless victory can be assured. (So, France and Britain should have invaded Germany as soon as Hitler gave them an excuse -- say, his re-occupation of the Rhineland -- and before he had a chance to rearm. They would probably have had the support of a large section of the German population had they done so -- most of the 38% of Germans who voted for the Socialist or Communist parties during their last free election before Hitler took power. Although, nationalism is a strong force, and it would have been very important to re-assure the Germans that the invasion was a temporary measure.)
In the case of the Russians, of course the West should want to see the country become a liberal democracy, just as it should with China.
But war against either of these countries is not going to do that.
We knew right from the beginning that pushing NATO up to the Russian border would make them flip out. That's why Gorbachev was promised that NATO would not expand "one inch" eastward. He was naive enough to believe us.
So we pushed and we pushed. The poor Georgians were encouraged to crack down on their ethnic separatists (another example of the idiotic Left slogan, "Diversity is Strength") in Abkhazia when the latter began to massacre the Georgians living in their territory
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_cleansing_of_Georgians_in_Abkhazia , and the same in South Ossetia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991%E2%80%931992_South_Ossetia_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Ossetia#2008_war
By the way, as is usual in ethnic conflicts, both sides were/are squalid: https://www.hrw.org/reports/1995/Georgia2.htm).
The US encouraged the Georgians to confront the Russians, who were supporting the ethnic separatists. They paid us the compliment of imitation -- taking our actions to support the Albanian separatists of Kosovo as a model.
Of course the Russians quickly smashed the Georgians, and the US left Georgia twisting in the wind.
This is what is happening now in Ukraine, although not quite as fast as in Georgia.
The Ukrainians are stronger than the Georgians, have more support from the West, and the Russians are paying the price for having their generals steal a lot of the money that should have gone for the modernization of their armed forces. But unless Jesus intervenes with a miracle, Russian victory is inevitable.
The light-minded fools in Washington (bi-partisan) will weep a few crocodile tears, and move on to the next opportunity. Hey, maybe we can get Taiwan to challenge China!
But in general, all serious conflicts of interest are settled by force, of which actual war is the ultimate example. Fascism was established by force, and destroyed by force. Slavery was enabled by force, and then the slave trade was prohibited by force, and destroyed in the US by force.
However, this does NOT mean that war -- either civil war or inter-state war -- is always a wise idea. In fact, it should only be a last resort, unless victory can be assured. (So, France and Britain should have invaded Germany as soon as Hitler gave them an excuse -- say, his re-occupation of the Rhineland -- and before he had a chance to rearm. They would probably have had the support of a large section of the German population had they done so -- most of the 38% of Germans who voted for the Socialist or Communist parties during their last free election before Hitler took power. Although, nationalism is a strong force, and it would have been very important to re-assure the Germans that the invasion was a temporary measure.)
In the case of the Russians, of course the West should want to see the country become a liberal democracy, just as it should with China.
But war against either of these countries is not going to do that.
We knew right from the beginning that pushing NATO up to the Russian border would make them flip out. That's why Gorbachev was promised that NATO would not expand "one inch" eastward. He was naive enough to believe us.
So we pushed and we pushed. The poor Georgians were encouraged to crack down on their ethnic separatists (another example of the idiotic Left slogan, "Diversity is Strength") in Abkhazia when the latter began to massacre the Georgians living in their territory
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_cleansing_of_Georgians_in_Abkhazia , and the same in South Ossetia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991%E2%80%931992_South_Ossetia_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Ossetia#2008_war
By the way, as is usual in ethnic conflicts, both sides were/are squalid: https://www.hrw.org/reports/1995/Georgia2.htm).
The US encouraged the Georgians to confront the Russians, who were supporting the ethnic separatists. They paid us the compliment of imitation -- taking our actions to support the Albanian separatists of Kosovo as a model.
Of course the Russians quickly smashed the Georgians, and the US left Georgia twisting in the wind.
This is what is happening now in Ukraine, although not quite as fast as in Georgia.
The Ukrainians are stronger than the Georgians, have more support from the West, and the Russians are paying the price for having their generals steal a lot of the money that should have gone for the modernization of their armed forces. But unless Jesus intervenes with a miracle, Russian victory is inevitable.
The light-minded fools in Washington (bi-partisan) will weep a few crocodile tears, and move on to the next opportunity. Hey, maybe we can get Taiwan to challenge China!
155kiparsky
>154 Doug1943: in general, all serious conflicts of interest are settled by force, of which actual war is the ultimate example
I think this is pretty simplistic. If we just look at the 20th century for a moment, there were a number of armed conflicts in which the use of overwhelming force compelled one side to negotiate terms under which both sides would co-exist in the future, and to some extent the retained threat of force maintained that state of affairs and prevented a new outbreak of hostilities. However, in those cases the conflicts were actually "settled" when the opposing parties agreed to terms and came to live with them - or, in some cases, failed to do so. (were those cases "settled by force"?)
If we limit ourselves to armed hostilities, you can still argue that force was what "settled" the issue, if you wanted, and I don't think I'd be too interested in belaboring the point with you. However, there are many "serious conflicts of interest" which were not settled by force at all. Chief among them, I suppose would be the Cold War, which obviously never came to open hostilities between the two opposing sides - there were any number of proxy wars, but none of them could be said to have "settled" anything. What finally "settled" that conflict was in fact the breakdown of the USSR and its client states due to internal inconsistencies and an inability to meet their populations' needs. And the defining act, which some of us still remember, was the opening of the Berlin Wall, which was not an act of armed force by any means.
Moving beyond the big low-hanging fruit, there are constant "serious conflicts of interest", whether between nations or companies or people, which are not settled by force. The European Parliament sits entirely to settle serious conflicts of interest, and has not yet resorted to force. Every day in this country, people resolve serious conflicts of interest without the use of force, for example by mediation, negotiation, or in the courts.
In my view, force alone is not capable of settling any serious conflict of interest. Nobody ever changed their mind because someone punched them in the face. Someone who disagrees with you is not going to come to agreement with you through the application of violence.
Sometimes is the tool that brings people to the point where they are willing to settle their conflicts, but force is never the way the resolution is arrived at. In the current conflict, Russia might use force to destroy Ukraine, but that will never settle any issue.
I think this is pretty simplistic. If we just look at the 20th century for a moment, there were a number of armed conflicts in which the use of overwhelming force compelled one side to negotiate terms under which both sides would co-exist in the future, and to some extent the retained threat of force maintained that state of affairs and prevented a new outbreak of hostilities. However, in those cases the conflicts were actually "settled" when the opposing parties agreed to terms and came to live with them - or, in some cases, failed to do so. (were those cases "settled by force"?)
If we limit ourselves to armed hostilities, you can still argue that force was what "settled" the issue, if you wanted, and I don't think I'd be too interested in belaboring the point with you. However, there are many "serious conflicts of interest" which were not settled by force at all. Chief among them, I suppose would be the Cold War, which obviously never came to open hostilities between the two opposing sides - there were any number of proxy wars, but none of them could be said to have "settled" anything. What finally "settled" that conflict was in fact the breakdown of the USSR and its client states due to internal inconsistencies and an inability to meet their populations' needs. And the defining act, which some of us still remember, was the opening of the Berlin Wall, which was not an act of armed force by any means.
Moving beyond the big low-hanging fruit, there are constant "serious conflicts of interest", whether between nations or companies or people, which are not settled by force. The European Parliament sits entirely to settle serious conflicts of interest, and has not yet resorted to force. Every day in this country, people resolve serious conflicts of interest without the use of force, for example by mediation, negotiation, or in the courts.
In my view, force alone is not capable of settling any serious conflict of interest. Nobody ever changed their mind because someone punched them in the face. Someone who disagrees with you is not going to come to agreement with you through the application of violence.
Sometimes is the tool that brings people to the point where they are willing to settle their conflicts, but force is never the way the resolution is arrived at. In the current conflict, Russia might use force to destroy Ukraine, but that will never settle any issue.
156Doug1943
Well, we're arguing about what 'serious' means.
The advance of civilization does indeed allow conflicts to be settled peacefully.
You think I owe you money, I think I don't -- it's a conflict ... maybe even a serious one if we're talking about a lot of money -- so we go to court -- or maybe to an institution which tries to resolve such disputes by negotiation and compromise -- in any case, the issue will get settled without anyone shooting anyone else.
Why? Well, in part it's because we have slowly evolved the custom of doing things this way. But it's also because if one of us refuses to pay up, he will eventually end up in jail ... because of the potential violence, the armed force, of the police. All societies, to function, need to be able to be able to bring force and violence against those of their members who refuse to play by the rules.
Europe has a bloody history -- big wars of the states there against each other, little wars of ethnic cleansing -- the most recently Yugoslavia, but lots of mass murders in Central and Eastern Europe a few decades before that. And I've heard there is a some unpleasantness in Ukraine at the moment.
So, yes, civilized societies have managed, by having a government that retains a monopoly of armed force, to settle disputes among their citizens without their having to kill each other. A few exceptions, of course. Some of the new Muslim citizens of Europe have brought their old habits with them, and as a result several hundred Europeans have died violently.
And for the last few decades, the European countries, under the thumb/within the shield of Uncle Sam have managed not to go to war with each other.
Behind it all is the capacity for organized violence.
The Cold War is an interesting case. The Soviets took and kept Eastern Europe by armed force. We didn't challenge that, because we feared their armed force. They didn't take more, because they feared ours. Had either side eschewed the use of armed force, had disbanded their militaries, they would quickly have gone under.
Of course it wasn't always so peaceful, as witness Korea and Vietnam and Afghanistan, or Cuba ... or the struggle between Left and Right in Latin America during the 1970s and 80s, where the outcome was decided by who had the most effective armed force, the losers getting dropped into the ocean out of helicopters.
So ... even where disputes are settled without violence this is because of the potential violence waiting in the wings to be used against the side that refuses to accept the peaceful settlement. (Relevant note: the 6 January invaders of Congress didn't accept the 'settlement' of the election results, and tried to use force -- admittedly trivial unarmed force -- to dispute the results. They were repelled by superior force, one of them fatally, and now they will pay fines or go to prison, because there is superior force arrayed against them.)
I don't think anyone really disagrees with this -- assuming no one here is a pacifist or anarchist.
The advance of civilization does indeed allow conflicts to be settled peacefully.
You think I owe you money, I think I don't -- it's a conflict ... maybe even a serious one if we're talking about a lot of money -- so we go to court -- or maybe to an institution which tries to resolve such disputes by negotiation and compromise -- in any case, the issue will get settled without anyone shooting anyone else.
Why? Well, in part it's because we have slowly evolved the custom of doing things this way. But it's also because if one of us refuses to pay up, he will eventually end up in jail ... because of the potential violence, the armed force, of the police. All societies, to function, need to be able to be able to bring force and violence against those of their members who refuse to play by the rules.
Europe has a bloody history -- big wars of the states there against each other, little wars of ethnic cleansing -- the most recently Yugoslavia, but lots of mass murders in Central and Eastern Europe a few decades before that. And I've heard there is a some unpleasantness in Ukraine at the moment.
So, yes, civilized societies have managed, by having a government that retains a monopoly of armed force, to settle disputes among their citizens without their having to kill each other. A few exceptions, of course. Some of the new Muslim citizens of Europe have brought their old habits with them, and as a result several hundred Europeans have died violently.
And for the last few decades, the European countries, under the thumb/within the shield of Uncle Sam have managed not to go to war with each other.
Behind it all is the capacity for organized violence.
The Cold War is an interesting case. The Soviets took and kept Eastern Europe by armed force. We didn't challenge that, because we feared their armed force. They didn't take more, because they feared ours. Had either side eschewed the use of armed force, had disbanded their militaries, they would quickly have gone under.
Of course it wasn't always so peaceful, as witness Korea and Vietnam and Afghanistan, or Cuba ... or the struggle between Left and Right in Latin America during the 1970s and 80s, where the outcome was decided by who had the most effective armed force, the losers getting dropped into the ocean out of helicopters.
So ... even where disputes are settled without violence this is because of the potential violence waiting in the wings to be used against the side that refuses to accept the peaceful settlement. (Relevant note: the 6 January invaders of Congress didn't accept the 'settlement' of the election results, and tried to use force -- admittedly trivial unarmed force -- to dispute the results. They were repelled by superior force, one of them fatally, and now they will pay fines or go to prison, because there is superior force arrayed against them.)
I don't think anyone really disagrees with this -- assuming no one here is a pacifist or anarchist.
157kiparsky
>156 Doug1943: assuming no one here is a pacifist or anarchist.
What a peculiar pair of assumptions to make.
What a peculiar pair of assumptions to make.
158John5918
>154 Doug1943: Pacifism, the 'global nonviolence movement' is silly. Nonviolence a la Gandhi can sometimes work, if the people it's used against are relatively civilized, and may be the best solution. It's what the Palestinians should have used against the Israelis.
Firstly, pacifism and the global nonviolence movement are not synonymous, although the former may be a subset of the latter, and they are certainly not silly.
Secondly, nonviolent resistance has been used successfully against some pretty brutal and "uncivilised" (whatever that term means) regimes. And do you really believe that the colonial power against which Gandhi used nonviolence was "civilised"? Are you aware of the appalling and brutal treatment they meted out? Are you aware of how brutal the colonial regimes were in Congo, Namibia, Kenya and many other parts of Africa, and how brutal apartheid was in South Africa? There is empirical evidence that nonviolence works twice as often as violence against hard-core regimes.
Thirdly, yes, I think Palestinians would have done well to use nonviolent means in their intifadas against their brutal and "uncivilised" oppressors, but ultimately it's up to them, just as it is up to the Ukrainians. One of the great advantages of nonviolent action is that you maintain the moral high ground - you are being killed, but you are not stooping to killing other human beings. In the same vein, while it probably won't change the mindset of brutal political and military leaders, it can erode the morale of the confused young boys who do most of the actual fighting, and that has a knock-on effect with their families and their peers back home, as we are already seeing on a small scale in the Ukraine war. It's a long term process, particularly as almost no resources are being devoted to nonviolent resistance compared to billions and billions of dollars to support military resistance, but then that military intervention looks like it's also going to be a long process.
Firstly, pacifism and the global nonviolence movement are not synonymous, although the former may be a subset of the latter, and they are certainly not silly.
Secondly, nonviolent resistance has been used successfully against some pretty brutal and "uncivilised" (whatever that term means) regimes. And do you really believe that the colonial power against which Gandhi used nonviolence was "civilised"? Are you aware of the appalling and brutal treatment they meted out? Are you aware of how brutal the colonial regimes were in Congo, Namibia, Kenya and many other parts of Africa, and how brutal apartheid was in South Africa? There is empirical evidence that nonviolence works twice as often as violence against hard-core regimes.
Thirdly, yes, I think Palestinians would have done well to use nonviolent means in their intifadas against their brutal and "uncivilised" oppressors, but ultimately it's up to them, just as it is up to the Ukrainians. One of the great advantages of nonviolent action is that you maintain the moral high ground - you are being killed, but you are not stooping to killing other human beings. In the same vein, while it probably won't change the mindset of brutal political and military leaders, it can erode the morale of the confused young boys who do most of the actual fighting, and that has a knock-on effect with their families and their peers back home, as we are already seeing on a small scale in the Ukraine war. It's a long term process, particularly as almost no resources are being devoted to nonviolent resistance compared to billions and billions of dollars to support military resistance, but then that military intervention looks like it's also going to be a long process.
159Doug1943
>157 kiparsky: You think? Well, I stand ready to be corrected! Pacifists and anarchists, step forward!
I think we need special armed bodies of men -- the military and police -- in order to have a civilized, decent society. Ultimately all serious questions are settled by force -- whether or not it has to be used.
You -- anarchists and pacifists -- think otherwise. You think we could disband the police and the military and all would be well.
Make your case!
I think we need special armed bodies of men -- the military and police -- in order to have a civilized, decent society. Ultimately all serious questions are settled by force -- whether or not it has to be used.
You -- anarchists and pacifists -- think otherwise. You think we could disband the police and the military and all would be well.
Make your case!
160Doug1943
>158 John5918: John: yes, I'm pretty familiar with the record of British imperialism -- I've yet to get and read what's-her-name's recent book on the subject but it will only flesh out the details.
The people the British ruled were pretty lucky, actually. It's too bad they didn't stay longer in Africa, from the point of view of the average African now, but they're not idealists and I can understand why they wanted to get out of that place, and let the Africans get to work killing each other.
I know the reference you're making to the 'empirical evidence' that nonviolence works more often than violence. It's a very simple fallacy, which can be explained like this: where non violence works, it may be used. It was the right move for the Indians, against the British.
Had they been ruled by someone else -- maybe the French -- it might not have worked, or even been tried. The Vietnamese and Algerians might have realized right from the start that the only way the French were going to leave, was at the point of a gun.
Where nonviolence doesn't work, violence is the only answer. But in the latter case, violence may not work either. There are various persecuted minorities in many countries -- probably all the ones the imperialists used to rule and now don't -- and most of them are doomed to remain persecuted minorities. Well, maybe Kashmir might make it some day, if India starts coming apart elsewhere.
What these minorities need to do is to reconcile themselves to being minorities, and to press for better treatment -- as opposed to trying to break away and get their own countries.
And for that, yes, non violent protest is the way to go. You try to persuade the more humane of your rulers that they should treat you better. You try to persuade them that persecuting them makes them look bad on the world stage, and might irritate those abroad who share your religion or ethnicity.
This is how the Blacks finally got equal treatment in the US. They can thank the Russians for it:until the US got into the Cold War, and started competing with the Russians in the Third World, no one in the US ruling class cared about lynchings or denial of voting rights to Blacks. (There was slow slow progress, but it was glacial.)
And the non-violent protests led by Martin Luther King were exactly the right tactic -- the bonehead Southern sheriffs who sicced police dogs onto praying protestors did, from the point of view of the protestors, exactly the right thing: it made wonderful television.)
However, let's not go overboard. There was also the reality of armed self-defense in the South, since the police would not protect Blacks.
Friends of mine and I raised, and delivered, money to the Deacons for Defense and Justice on our college campus -- our slogan was "Every dime buys a bullet!" -- drove the liberals crazy ... and you see what inflation has done?. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deacons_for_Defense_and_Justice (I still have a vivid memory of knocking on Robert Sims' door in Bogalusa Louisiana at night to deliver the money, and seeing a curtain over the door being slowly drawn back, with him holding an M1 Carbine pointed at my stomach!)
Martin Luther King had armed guards (and yours truly started carrying a rifle in the back of the car when I did voter registration work in Tennessee during Freedom Summer, after we were chased by some white supremacists one day.)
So, yes, nonviolence where it works, by all means. And whatever else works where it doesn't.
The people the British ruled were pretty lucky, actually. It's too bad they didn't stay longer in Africa, from the point of view of the average African now, but they're not idealists and I can understand why they wanted to get out of that place, and let the Africans get to work killing each other.
I know the reference you're making to the 'empirical evidence' that nonviolence works more often than violence. It's a very simple fallacy, which can be explained like this: where non violence works, it may be used. It was the right move for the Indians, against the British.
Had they been ruled by someone else -- maybe the French -- it might not have worked, or even been tried. The Vietnamese and Algerians might have realized right from the start that the only way the French were going to leave, was at the point of a gun.
Where nonviolence doesn't work, violence is the only answer. But in the latter case, violence may not work either. There are various persecuted minorities in many countries -- probably all the ones the imperialists used to rule and now don't -- and most of them are doomed to remain persecuted minorities. Well, maybe Kashmir might make it some day, if India starts coming apart elsewhere.
What these minorities need to do is to reconcile themselves to being minorities, and to press for better treatment -- as opposed to trying to break away and get their own countries.
And for that, yes, non violent protest is the way to go. You try to persuade the more humane of your rulers that they should treat you better. You try to persuade them that persecuting them makes them look bad on the world stage, and might irritate those abroad who share your religion or ethnicity.
This is how the Blacks finally got equal treatment in the US. They can thank the Russians for it:until the US got into the Cold War, and started competing with the Russians in the Third World, no one in the US ruling class cared about lynchings or denial of voting rights to Blacks. (There was slow slow progress, but it was glacial.)
And the non-violent protests led by Martin Luther King were exactly the right tactic -- the bonehead Southern sheriffs who sicced police dogs onto praying protestors did, from the point of view of the protestors, exactly the right thing: it made wonderful television.)
However, let's not go overboard. There was also the reality of armed self-defense in the South, since the police would not protect Blacks.
Friends of mine and I raised, and delivered, money to the Deacons for Defense and Justice on our college campus -- our slogan was "Every dime buys a bullet!" -- drove the liberals crazy ... and you see what inflation has done?. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deacons_for_Defense_and_Justice (I still have a vivid memory of knocking on Robert Sims' door in Bogalusa Louisiana at night to deliver the money, and seeing a curtain over the door being slowly drawn back, with him holding an M1 Carbine pointed at my stomach!)
Martin Luther King had armed guards (and yours truly started carrying a rifle in the back of the car when I did voter registration work in Tennessee during Freedom Summer, after we were chased by some white supremacists one day.)
So, yes, nonviolence where it works, by all means. And whatever else works where it doesn't.
161John5918
>160 Doug1943: So, yes, nonviolence where it works, by all means. And whatever else works where it doesn't.
Well, no. Nonviolence works twice as often as violence, in just over half of the hundreds of hard cases studied. Violence "succeeds" in about a quarter of cases, and neither succeed in about a quarter. So if you're playing the odds, trying nonviolence gives you a much better, but not guaranteed, chance of success. What is also indubitably true is that the post-conflict society is much more likely to be stable, peaceful, democratic and humane after a nonviolent struggle than after a violent one.
In addition to "what works, works", it is quite striking that nonviolence is successful so often given that virtually no resources - human, financial, material, research, academic, training, propaganda, etc - are devoted to it, compared to the billions of dollars, millions of trained personnel, huge research facilities, etc which make up the military-industrial complex. How much more successful would nonviolence be if the same resources were devoted to it? Or to put it another way, nonviolence has never been tried on the same scale and with the same resources as violence, so there is no evidence available to back up your claim that violence is more effective, only that large-scale violence has often appeared to be more effective than small-scale nonviolence.
With all due respect, I think much of your opinion on colonialism is nonsense.
>159 Doug1943: I think we need special armed bodies of men -- the military and police
And yet many countries have unarmed police forces, with access to weapons only when specifically needed. A number of UN peacekeeping forces are made up of unarmed observers. I can give you many examples of unarmed interventions in some of the more violent conflicts in Africa. During the 2002 ceasefire in the Nuba Mountains a successful unarmed peacekeeping group led by a Norwegian general comprised representatives of the two warring parties (government and rebels) plus international members. In one part of South Sudan a retired bishop has formed unarmed "community police" made up of representatives of all the different conflict groups, which has been intervening successfully for twenty years whenever there is a conflict. In many, but not all, African conflicts the presence of religious personnel in an area moderates the behaviour of the armed groups. There is an international group called Nonviolent Peace Force which provides unarmed civilian volunteers to accompany people in conflict zones. South Sudanese women were routinely being raped, beaten and robbed by armed soldiers and militia when they ventured outside the protected areas to fetch water or firewood; the presence of the international volunteers has largely prevented that. During the early days of the 2013 civil war in South Sudan UN peacekeepers felt their mandate was only to protect civilians who made it into their camps, not to go out and confront the armed groups. Civilians were being killed outside one camp in full view of the peacekeepers. When a Kenyan soldier saw that children were about to be killed, he went out, alone and unarmed, and persuaded the killers to let him take the children to safety. Somewhere in west Africa (can't remember where) rebels captured an armoured car from Kenyan peacekeepers. Rather than sending in Black Hawk helicopters, a Kenyan officer walked unarmed into the rebel camp and persuaded them to give back the armoured car. I believe both those Kenyans were given medals for their unarmed bravery. The list goes on and on.
What is remarkable, as I said above, is that so many nonviolent interventions are successful given that there are virtually no resources devoted to it, and many people in the world, even educated people like yourself, are seemingly unaware of the power of nonviolence. At the same time, given the obvious failure of military interventions throughout the world, it amazes me that people still cling with almost religious fervour to the belief that it is the best way to resolve conflicts.
Well, no. Nonviolence works twice as often as violence, in just over half of the hundreds of hard cases studied. Violence "succeeds" in about a quarter of cases, and neither succeed in about a quarter. So if you're playing the odds, trying nonviolence gives you a much better, but not guaranteed, chance of success. What is also indubitably true is that the post-conflict society is much more likely to be stable, peaceful, democratic and humane after a nonviolent struggle than after a violent one.
In addition to "what works, works", it is quite striking that nonviolence is successful so often given that virtually no resources - human, financial, material, research, academic, training, propaganda, etc - are devoted to it, compared to the billions of dollars, millions of trained personnel, huge research facilities, etc which make up the military-industrial complex. How much more successful would nonviolence be if the same resources were devoted to it? Or to put it another way, nonviolence has never been tried on the same scale and with the same resources as violence, so there is no evidence available to back up your claim that violence is more effective, only that large-scale violence has often appeared to be more effective than small-scale nonviolence.
With all due respect, I think much of your opinion on colonialism is nonsense.
>159 Doug1943: I think we need special armed bodies of men -- the military and police
And yet many countries have unarmed police forces, with access to weapons only when specifically needed. A number of UN peacekeeping forces are made up of unarmed observers. I can give you many examples of unarmed interventions in some of the more violent conflicts in Africa. During the 2002 ceasefire in the Nuba Mountains a successful unarmed peacekeeping group led by a Norwegian general comprised representatives of the two warring parties (government and rebels) plus international members. In one part of South Sudan a retired bishop has formed unarmed "community police" made up of representatives of all the different conflict groups, which has been intervening successfully for twenty years whenever there is a conflict. In many, but not all, African conflicts the presence of religious personnel in an area moderates the behaviour of the armed groups. There is an international group called Nonviolent Peace Force which provides unarmed civilian volunteers to accompany people in conflict zones. South Sudanese women were routinely being raped, beaten and robbed by armed soldiers and militia when they ventured outside the protected areas to fetch water or firewood; the presence of the international volunteers has largely prevented that. During the early days of the 2013 civil war in South Sudan UN peacekeepers felt their mandate was only to protect civilians who made it into their camps, not to go out and confront the armed groups. Civilians were being killed outside one camp in full view of the peacekeepers. When a Kenyan soldier saw that children were about to be killed, he went out, alone and unarmed, and persuaded the killers to let him take the children to safety. Somewhere in west Africa (can't remember where) rebels captured an armoured car from Kenyan peacekeepers. Rather than sending in Black Hawk helicopters, a Kenyan officer walked unarmed into the rebel camp and persuaded them to give back the armoured car. I believe both those Kenyans were given medals for their unarmed bravery. The list goes on and on.
What is remarkable, as I said above, is that so many nonviolent interventions are successful given that there are virtually no resources devoted to it, and many people in the world, even educated people like yourself, are seemingly unaware of the power of nonviolence. At the same time, given the obvious failure of military interventions throughout the world, it amazes me that people still cling with almost religious fervour to the belief that it is the best way to resolve conflicts.
162John5918
Russia's elite 331st paras regiment fight for public support (BBC)
One of Russia's elite fighting forces, the 331st Guards Parachute regiment, is back in Ukraine after suffering heavy losses at the start of the war. While state media tells a story of the unit's great heroism, back in the regiment's hometown, support for the fighters looks less certain... "I feel sorry for each of these boys, but I don't consider them to be heroes, I consider them to be victims"...
163margd
On Snake Island, defiant Ukrainians force a Russian withdrawal
Claire Parker | June 30, 2022
...Russian...occupying the strategic Black Sea outpost for months.
Russia called its retreat from Snake Island a “goodwill gesture” at a time when Moscow faces global ire for obstructing grain exports from Ukraine that are key to mitigating a global food crisis. The island, which covers just 0.06 square miles, sits on a major shipping lane and access point to the key port of Odessa. Russia’s Defense Ministry said in a statement that its forces had “completed their assigned tasks” on the island.
“We demonstrated to the world community that the Russian Federation does not interfere with the efforts of the U.N. to organize a humanitarian corridor for the export of agricultural products from the territory of Ukraine,” the ministry said.
Ukraine offered a different story. A blitz of Ukrainian artillery, rockets and airstrikes this month forced the Russians to pull out, Valery Zaluzhny, commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, wrote in a Facebook post. He shared video footage of missiles hitting the island and the surrounding waters. Ukraine had pounded the island for days and the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said earlier this week that it had taken out Russian antiaircraft systems there. Russia, meanwhile, denied its systems had been destroyed.
Russian forces tried unsuccessfully to stymie the assault with nighttime fighter jet attacks on the coast of the Odessa region, the Ukrainian military’s southern command said on Facebook. As the Ukrainian military operation continued, Russian troops remaining on the island “hurriedly evacuated” the garrison on two speedboats, the statement added...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/30/ukraine-snake-island-russian-wit...
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So, afterwards, Russian humanitarians, those sweethearts, then fired a missile at an Odessa apartment building at 1 am while people slept...
Claire Parker | June 30, 2022
...Russian...occupying the strategic Black Sea outpost for months.
Russia called its retreat from Snake Island a “goodwill gesture” at a time when Moscow faces global ire for obstructing grain exports from Ukraine that are key to mitigating a global food crisis. The island, which covers just 0.06 square miles, sits on a major shipping lane and access point to the key port of Odessa. Russia’s Defense Ministry said in a statement that its forces had “completed their assigned tasks” on the island.
“We demonstrated to the world community that the Russian Federation does not interfere with the efforts of the U.N. to organize a humanitarian corridor for the export of agricultural products from the territory of Ukraine,” the ministry said.
Ukraine offered a different story. A blitz of Ukrainian artillery, rockets and airstrikes this month forced the Russians to pull out, Valery Zaluzhny, commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, wrote in a Facebook post. He shared video footage of missiles hitting the island and the surrounding waters. Ukraine had pounded the island for days and the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said earlier this week that it had taken out Russian antiaircraft systems there. Russia, meanwhile, denied its systems had been destroyed.
Russian forces tried unsuccessfully to stymie the assault with nighttime fighter jet attacks on the coast of the Odessa region, the Ukrainian military’s southern command said on Facebook. As the Ukrainian military operation continued, Russian troops remaining on the island “hurriedly evacuated” the garrison on two speedboats, the statement added...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/30/ukraine-snake-island-russian-wit...
--------------------------------------------------------
So, afterwards, Russian humanitarians, those sweethearts, then fired a missile at an Odessa apartment building at 1 am while people slept...
Dit onderwerp werd voortgezet door Russia: international moves, West responses, Putin's revenge & future...Ukraine 8.
