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Voorspelbaar zoektocht naar de voorspelbaarheid van ons gedrag (2010)

door Albert-László Barabási

LedenBesprekingenPopulariteitGemiddelde beoordelingAanhalingen
3291078,421 (3.09)6
Science. Nonfiction. The author's premise that historically significant human behaviors and actions appear in bursts finds little support in his lengthy narrative. Long stories without any seeming relationship to his thesis abound. We hear a chimera of vague science, tales of Papal ascendancy, and a tedious description of a sixteenth-century peasants' revolt. What should be a valuable educational experience turns into journey with no direction. Narrator Richard McGonagle's bass voice and bombastic manner elevate his role to more prominence than it merits. He stumbles on common scientific words and maintains an emotionless cadence. Overall, the combination of the writer's disorganization and the narrator's exaggerated delivery results in a less-than-effective production. J.A.H. (c) AudioFile 2010, Portland, Maine. HTML:A revolutionary new theory showing how we can predict human behavior-from a radical genius and bestselling author
Can we scientifically predict our future? Scientists and pseudo scientists have been pursuing this mystery for hundreds and perhaps thousands of years. But now, astonishing new research is revealing patterns in human behavior previously thought to be purely random. Precise, orderly, predictable patterns...
Albert Laszlo Barabasi, already the world's preeminent researcher on the science of networks, describes his work on this profound mystery in Bursts, a stunningly original investigation into human nature. His approach relies on the digital reality of our world, from mobile phones to the Internet and email, because it has turned society into a huge research laboratory. All those electronic trails of time stamped texts, voicemails, and internet searches add up to a previously unavailable massive data set of statistics that track our movements, our decisions, our lives. Analysis of these trails is offering deep insights into the rhythm of how we do everything. His finding? We work and fight and play in short flourishes of activity followed by next to nothing. The pattern isn't random, it's "bursty." Randomness does not rule our lives in the way scientists have assumed up until now.
Illustrating this revolutionary science, Barabasi artfully weaves together the story of a 16th century burst of human activity-a bloody medieval crusade launched in his homeland, Transylvania-with the modern tale of a contemporary artist hunted by the FBI through our post 9/11 surveillance society. These narratives illustrate how predicting human behavior has long been the obsession, sometimes the duty, of those in power. Barabsi's astonishingly wide range of examples from seemingly unrelated areas include how dollar bills move around the U.S., the pattern everyone follows in writing email, the spread of epidemics, and even the flight patterns of albatross. In all these phenomena a virtually identical, mathematically described bursty pattern emerges.
Bursts reveals what this amazing new research is showing us about where individual spontaneity ends and predictability in human behavior begins. The way you think about your own potential to do something truly extraordinary will never be the same.
… (meer)
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Előjáróban leszögezném, hogy Barabási Albert László annyira olvasmányosan, annyira sodró lelkesedéssel ír, hogy Frei Tamás ezt látva üveges szemmel dobálja a kandallóba 2020 című könyvének kéziratlapjait. Másrészt viszont Barabási Albert László könyve tudományos szövegként komolytalan. Amikor a nebraskai fegyverkiállításról egy 1514-es bíborosi konklávéra ugrik, majd onnan 1917-be, ahol egy meteorológust szemrevételez, onnan pedig Bangladesbe, és így tovább, az engem arra emlékeztet, ahogy a bűvész felzavarja a színpadra a bögyös bikinis asszisztenseit, így terelve el arról a figyelmünket, hogy közben a háttérben épp egy nyulat tömköd bele a cilinderébe. Persze lehetséges, hogy szó sincs átverésről – de maga a szándék, hogy itt mintha el akarnák terelni a figyelmemet, már gyanakvást kelt. Hiszen ha Barabásinak igazán lenne mondanivalója, akkor elmondaná – gondolom magamban -, ezzel szemben csak pörög ide-oda, néha pedig elidőz totálisan lényegtelennek tűnő részeknél (mint amilyen a nagyszebeni kutatás egy latin nyelvű levél után), és még a könyv felénél sem hajlandó kibökni, hogy voltaképpen mi hogy jön ide. (Megjegyzem, később is alig-alig*.) Fejtegetései totálisan olyanok, mint az épp általa említett örvénylő folyadékban lebegő apró részecskék: „hatalmas ugrásokat tesznek, azok között pedig idegesítően szöszmötölnek.” Szóval: ez egy diffúz könyv.

Vegyük például ezt a Székely „Dózsa” György szálat. Tulajdonképpen a könyv felét kiteszi, de vesszek meg, ha valaki meg tudja nekem indokolni ennek szükségességét. Persze nagyon jó kis Dózsa-értekezés ez, csak az a baj vele (az indokolatlanságán túl), hogy történelmi tanulmánynak bajosan vehető. Lehet, hogy szőrszálhasogató vagyok, de ha olyat olvasok egy szakmunkában, hogy Bakócz Tamásnak „forogni kezdett a gyomra”, akkor kicsit elkedvetlenedem. Majd ha a Szent Péter bazilikában talált verejtékmaradványok izotópos vizsgálatából kiderül, hogy 1.) a verejtékcsepp Bakócz Tamáshoz tartozik 2.) a verejtékcsepp kémiai összetétele arra utal, hogy Bakócz ideges volt – na, akkor majd mondhat ilyet. Amúgy meg csak mellébeszélés. Blöff. Egyébként is az egész Dózsa-ügy olybá tűnik nekem, mintha Barabási álma lett volna írni egy történelmi regényt. Van itt párviadal, csodás események, kitágult orrlyukakkal vágtató paripák, de még Eötvös Magyarország 1514-ben című könyvéből is átvesz egy monológot (történelmi erejű bizonyíték! muhaha!). Ami szép meg jó, és ismétlem: élvezet volt olvasni, de biztos, hogy ide való?

Amúgy Barabási a következő nagyívű ígérettel nyitja e könyvet: "Ha minden jól megy, mire a könyv végére ér, Ön is eljut a felismerésig, hogy akármilyen spontán embernek gondolta magát, valójában sokkal kiszámíthatóbb, mintsem hajlandó lenne beismerni." Az a problémám ezzel, hogy Barabási innentől kezdve mintha következetesen összemosná az emberi cselekedetek statisztikai megjósolhatóságának tényét az én egyéni spontaneitásommal – ami azért egészen más tészta. Arra gyanakszom, hogy írónk a varázsló szerepében akar tetszelegni, holott „csak” tudós. Az is szép szakma, üzenem neki innen a boltból, tessék vele megelégedni. Mert maga az elmélet, az nem tagadom, káprázatos lehetőségeket rejt magában: a hálózatok tudományát kiterjeszteni az emberi viselkedés magyarázatára. Hiszen valóban, a műholdak korában az emberek mozgásáról már annyi adat gyűlt össze, hogy csak legyen, aki győzi feldolgozni, és az is tuti, hogy ezekből a feldolgozott adatokból nagyon érdekes következtetéseket lehet majd (ismétlem: majd!) levonni. De ez nem mágia – csak kreatív adatfeldolgozás. Vagy ahogy Barabási definiálja: humán dinamika. Ami viszont e könyv alapján nem tudománynak tűnik, csupán egy tudomány ígéretének. (Ami persze szintúgy nem kevés.)

Másrészt itt vannak ugye ezek a fránya villanások – azok az előre kiszámíthatatlan szabálytól való eltérések, amelyek torzítják a statisztikai adatokat, megnehezítve ezzel azok feldolgozását. Mivel Barabási címül is őket választotta, némi joggal reméltem, hogy mond majd róluk valamit – akár azt, hogyan lehet előre jelezni őket. (Na, ez valóban a humán dinamika Szent Grálja lett volna.) Ezzel szemben az író elköveti azt a bravúrt, hogy háromszáz oldalon keresztül alig ejt róluk egy tiszta szót – még definiálni sem képes őket rendesen. Amit velük kapcsolatban felhoz, az egy rakás analógia: hogy mintha villanások lennének felfedezhetők a majmok, az albatroszok, a bankjegyek, meg még ki tudja mik mozgásában is – ami tök jó, tök érdekes, de egy analógia még nem tudományos bizonyíték, pláne ha ilyen kevéssé meggyőző. Merthogy így oldalog be a Dózsa-féle parasztfelkelés is a sztoriba: mint történelmi analógia. Hiszen az is milyen kiszámíthatatlan volt. Legalább ennyire kiszámíthatatlan volt persze az is, hogy édesapám bejelentette, holnap nálunk alszik, mégsem írok róla százötven oldalt. Ráadásul nevetségesnek találom, hogy konkrétan prófétát csinál egy Telegdi nevű nemesből, csak mert megjósolta előre az eseményeket. Még ilyet! Kitalálta, hogy ha felfegyverzik a parasztokat, akkor azok esetleg fölkoncolnak pár nemest! Orákulum volt a csávó! Én meg ezennel megjósolom, hogy ha adok egy filcet Kornél fiam kezébe, akkor összefirkálja a falat. Hihetetlen, mi?

Minden tiszteletem Barabási lendületének és intelligenciájának. Biztos vagyok benne, hogy ebből a témából lehengerlő egyórás előadást tud összeállítani – de ez így egy habos-babos izé. Tulajdonképpen annyi a slusszpoénja, hogy Karl Popper „Állításával ellentétben nincs rá szilárd bizonyíték, hogy a társadalmi rendszereket nem lehet előre jelezni.” (281. oldal) Értjük: az a konklúzió, hogy nem bizonyíthatjuk, hogy nem lehet. Igaz, azt sem tudjuk bizonyítani, hogy lehet. Na, ezért érdemes volt megírni ezt a könyvet… Összességében: tudományos munkának 1 csillag, viszont ha valamiféle Pynchon-féle posztmodern regénynek tekintem, akkor 5. Így jön ki a 3.

* "Az Olvasó talán időnként eltűnődik rajta, hogy mit keres Székely György, a tizenhatodik századi hős – vagy gazember – egy humán dinamikával foglalkozó könyvben? Mi köze a természettudománynak a történelemhez?" Nem „időnként”, László, hanem állandóan ezen töprengek, amióta ebbe a könyvbe belekezdtem. Úgyhogy ha már így a 278. oldalon megkérdezted, húsz oldallal a vége előtt, hát lepj meg végre a válasszal, kérlek, mert már marhára ideges vagyok. ( )
  Kuszma | Jul 2, 2022 |
The tagline oversells it. There's nothing groundbreaking or controversial and certainly nothing revolutionary. The random bits of Hungarian history add no value and are of no interest to me and I suspect anyone else who isn't Hungarian. ( )
  Paul_S | Dec 23, 2020 |
Barabási, Albert-László (2010). Bursts: The Hidden Pattern Behind Everything We Do. London: Dutton. 2010. ISBN 9781101428429. Pagine 323. 19,34 $

Letto subito dopo la sua uscita, nella primavera-estate del 2010, ma poi non recensito.

Barabási è un fisico di origine ungherese, nato in Transilvania nella comunità Székely. Questo ne spiega, anche se non ne giustifica, l’acceso nazionalismo: gli ungheresi ritendono, forse a ragione, di essere stati penalizzati nel trattato di Trianon, al termine della 1ª guerra mondiale, a vantaggio della Romania. Il suo nome è legato soprattutto alla teoria delle reti, e in particolare delle scale-free networks, di cui trattava il suo precedente volume destinato al pubblico non specialistico, Linked: The New Science Of Networks (Link. La scienza delle reti). Quando l’ho letto, una decina d’anni fa, nella torrida estate del 2003, ne sono stato fortemente e favorevolmente colpito. Mi era anche capitato, per motivi professionale, di leggere qualche cosa di più tecnico e più accademico di Barabási, che ormai guardavo con ammirazione e rispetto.

Bursts ha in parte tradito le mie aspettative e vedo, dalle recensioni che si trovano in rete, che non sono il solo. Il problema è che, in questo libro, Barabási divaga in continuazione. Non che questo mi spiaccia: anzi, mi diverte molto e mi ci riconosco anche. Però, in tutto questo divagare, rischia di perdersi il messaggio principale: è questo che – nonostante i molti riferimenti al libro che costellano questo blog (a proposito della trilogia di John Twelve Hawks, ma anche di un suo articolo sulla “rete dei sapori” pubblicato su Nature) – mi aveva finora dissuaso dalla recensione.

La tesi centrale di Bursts è che i comportamenti umani siano caratterizzati da bursts, esplosioni di attività all’interno di lunghi periodi di (relativa) quiete (il titolo del libro è tradotto in italiano Lampi, ma mi sembra renda meno di scoppi o esplosioni; allora forse meglio sprazzi). Pensate a come rispondete ai vostri messaggi di posta elettronica: benché i messaggi vi arrivino pressoché di continuo, soprattutto se ne ricevete molti dall’estero e dunque la loro cadenza non è influenzato dai ritmi circadiani del posto in cui vivete, è probabile che tendiate a limitare alcuni momenti della vostra giornata a rispondere. Il perché è molto semplice: le cose da fare sono tante, il tempo è poco. Perciò, istintivamente, date alle cose da fare delle priorità; e quelle che non ricadono tra quelle prioritarie, spesso giacciono inevase: per giorni, per mesi, per sempre.

Paradossalmente, proprio perché bursts e priorità sono ineluttabili, prevedere il comportamento umano è più facile, non più difficile.

Our tasks and responsibilities are poised to queue thanks to a shortage of time. If we could simultaneously work on an arbitrary number of tasks, no one would need a priority list. Time is our most valuable nonrenewable resource, and if we want to treat it with respect, we need to set priorities. Once we do that, power laws and burstiness become unavoidable. [posizione Kindle 1822]

Peccato che questi due importanti messaggi, esposti con chiarezza e rigore, si disperdano in un libro che fa del detour la sua cifra.

Tanto per cominciare, oltre metà del libro (14 capitoli su 28, cui vanno aggiunte 15 immagini originali dell’artista transilvano Botond Reszegh: «There is a theorem in publishing that each graph halves a book’s audience. Its corollary for e-books: Each image halves the number of devices that can properly display it.», pos. 4468) è dedicata alla storia di un eroe Székely, Dózsa György alias György Székely che, se non ricordo male, non ha moltissimo a che fare con il suo tema principale. Fino allo spaventoso supplizio del trono incandescente che vedete raffigurato qui sotto.


upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia
Condivido largamente, a questo punto, la recensione di Clive Thompson sul Wall Street Journal del 30 aprile 2010:

Mr. Barabási worries that burstiness makes us trackable online by corporations and government, particularly as digital tools like mobile phones produce records of our goings and doings.
This is genuinely fascinating stuff, and when he focuses on the science, Mr. Barabási is a superbly clear writer. But science constitutes a surprisingly small fraction of “Bursts.” Mr. Barabási spends much of the book delivering real-life stories that are supposed to illustrate his principles. Some, like an account of Albert Einstein’s correspondence in 1919 with a little-known scientist, neatly illustrate how bursts govern our lives. But other stories aren’t so successful— particularly Mr. Barabási’s elaborate account of how a Crusade in 16th-century Hungary turned into a gore-splattered civil war. On its own, the Hungarian conflict makes a riveting story, but Mr. Barabási devotes more than a quarter of the book to its telling—yet never convincingly connects the tale to his theme. It became, for me, a maddening distraction. In the end, Mr. Barabási has written a thought-provoking book. But the most rewarding passages appear only, as it were, in bursts.

* * *

Naturalmente, data la classe di Barabási, il libro è colmo di riflessioni e spunti interessanti (consueti riferimenti alla posizione Kindle):

[…] exploding prevalence […] [552]

We live in a data-rich world.
Putting these data to lucrative use propels the development of further technologies that aim to discover even more about each of us. [555]

Once again, the truth failed to cooperate […] [951]

The problem wasn’t his method but his data. [981]

In 2007, eleven years after its initial discovery, the Lévy character of animal foraging was no longer considered a hypothesis but a well-established scientific fact and had inspired hundreds of publications by ecologists, animal researchers, mathematicians, and physicists. Thus the entire scientific community was shocked when they read that year’s October 25 issue of Nature: a paper coauthored by Edwards, Sergey, and many others concluded that any likeness the path of the wandering albatrosses had to a Lévy trajectory was an artifact of the measurements. [2541]

Science itself often follows a Lévy pattern—a huge jump ahead is trailed by many small, localized steps that appear to take us nowhere, or perhaps even backward in some instances. These are not wasted moves, however, but necessary to testing the boundaries of the new paradigm. [2608]

Predictably Unpredictable
Since the publication in 2005 of The Traveler, a New Age “high-tech paranoid-schizophrenic thriller” with an Orwellian twist, a peculiar debate has absorbed cyberspace. The book takes us into a world where life is free of crises and surprises, a world of ennui-inducing normality. This peace and apparent security is maintained by a worldwide system of computers called the Vast Machine, fed by millions of surveillance cameras, sensors, and detectors. Only the members of a once-powerful ancient society and their sword-carrying protectors, the Harlequins, are aware of the Vast Machine’s reach and are willing to stand up to it.
The ongoing debate this book continues to inspire on blogs and bulletin boards alike might easily focus on the eerie parallels between our own post-9/11 society and the tightly monitored world described in it. But it does not. It might also center on the book’s literary merits, except that, as one critic put it, the writing “is pitched to perhaps a seventh-grade reading level,” an assessment few would challenge. The debate is instead about John Twelve Hawks, its author.
The blockbuster sales and movie rights ought to have elevated Hawks to national celebrity, putting him among the likes of Stephen King and Dan Brown. Yet they did not. And it isn’t because the media shuns him either. The real reason that you never hear about Hawks is that nobody seems to know him. He does not sign books and does not participate in promotional tours. In fact, he has never been seen in public and supposedly communicates even with his editor only through an untraceable satellite phone. Just like the Harlequins on perpetual run from the Vast Machine, John Twelve Hawks lives off the grid, a paranoid seclusion that fuels ongoing speculation regarding his true identity.
The book’s central character is a Harlequin who preserves her off-the-grid anonymity by never using credit cards, opening bank accounts, or staying at permanent addresses. Aware that “any habitual action that showed a Harlequin taking a daily, predictable route to some location” will allow the Vast Machine to predict her whereabouts, she “cultivates randomness.” That is, she relies on a random-number generator, or RNG, to guide her decisions. “An odd number might mean Yes, an even number No. Push a button, and the RNG will tell you which door to enter,” freeing her actions from predictable patterns.
The book is a tale of a battle between good and evil that takes us briefly into something like that fifth dimension Theodor Kaluza proposed to Einstein, throwing into the mix Japanese sword fights and quantum computing. It also again begs the question, could one build a Vast Machine that foresees our actions?
We find it perfectly acceptable that particle physicists can predict within a picometer of accuracy the trajectory of a proton or that rocket scientists can launch a satellite that nine months later drops a robot on Mars. Unlike protons or satellites, however, humans tend to seek new experiences in a continually changing world, making it impossible to foresee their long-term actions. Indeed, given my hectic travel schedule, until recently I found any attempt to predict my whereabouts a few weeks in advance to be a hopeless exercise, fueling my hope that the Vast Machine will always stay where it belongs—in the realm of science fiction. Lately, however, I have begun to have my doubts. [2761: la mia recensione alla trilogia è qui]

Given how impenetrable our past has become, perhaps it’s no small wonder that our future is uncertain. [2976]

Today each person doing research on human dynamics increasingly faces a similar dilemma: How do we avoid contributing to the creation of a surveillance state or conglomerate, a back-to-the-future ticket to Orwell’s 1984?
Hasan has a refreshing answer to this question.
“Intelligence agencies, regardless of who they are, all operate in an industry where their commodity is information,” he observes. “The reason their information has value,” he adds, “is because no one has access to it.”
His solution? Give it up, and it becomes worthless. “It is the secrecy applied to the information that makes it valuable,” he says. And with that, he joins the Szeklers and hides in plain sight, pouring his life out onto his Web site. [3215]

As we have seen, predicting an individual’s behavior is getting steadily easier. And the future is far more valuable than the past, as our travel and purchasing plans are possibly the most potent commodity in our economy. And while secure firewalls and privacy laws protect our pasts, our futures, predicted by sophisticated algorithms, are up for grabs. With that we arrive at a new paradigm I call prospective privacy. It boils down to this: Who owns the information about our future actions and behavior? Who should profit from it? [3244]

But no physicist has ever successfully predicted the trajectory of 10^23 molecules in a gas, either, and that hasn’t stopped us from predicting the gas’s pressure and temperature—arguably far more important than the trajectory of each individual molecule. The same is true for human dynamics. Our deep-rooted unpredictability does not need to bubble up at the level of the society. If we carefully distinguish the random from the predictable, we might be able to foresee many features of the social fabric. [3711]

Any discussion about privacy is a discussion about trade-offs. Giving up the privacy of our medical records may allow the insurance companies to refuse coverage, but not sharing the data could limit the quality of the medical care we receive and thwart research toward the development of better cures. Giving up information about our shopping habits may be perceived by some as an uncomfortable loss of privacy, but others are more than willing to part with it for free or discounted services. Giving up information about our employment history and communication patterns may expose us to potential criminal investigation, but may also reward us with higher security and decrease our chances of being caught in a criminal activity or terrorist attack. [4348] ( )
  Boris.Limpopo | Apr 29, 2019 |
In this strange, confusing book of his, Barabási writes about the sudden 'bursts' of patterns always everywhere from human behavior to science. The interwoven story of Székely Dózsa György although is interesting but confusing and almost irrelevant..... ( )
  TheCrow2 | Oct 12, 2013 |
I rather liked this book. The author shows that the randomness of the normal distribution (bell curve) is unsatisfactory in coming to grips with a lot of human behavior and history. Barabási shows how the travels of dollar bills from wallet to wallet are not predictable in normal ways but have bursts of bouncing around. These are recorded in WheresGeorge.com.

Another major burst of activity was that of the rise of Györgi Székely in Hungarian Transylvania in the 16th century, who led a kind of drusade and serf's revolt, coming almost out of nowhere. It's an unusual story to interleave in a modern day book on networks and predictability, but Barabási is trying to show things as they actually happen, without logic or extensive planning, but with a lot of fortuitous circumstance. In a former age, people might understand events falling about as they do as the hand of God. At this point, we ae still groping for answers. ( )
  vpfluke | Aug 17, 2013 |
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Con más anécdotas, menos concentrado que su precedente, Linked, obra clave para entender la emergencia de las Teorías de Redes como paradigma de interpretación desde la Física y las Ciencias Matemáticas hacia ámbitos aparentemente distintos, como el comportamiento de otros animales, Internet o la Sociedad, profundiza en la misma idea principal: también como colectivo, como sociedad, seguimos leyes universales, en su mayoría por identificar pero que nos alejan de la sensación de azar aparente.
 
Con más anécdotas, menos concentrado que su precedente, Linked, obra clave para entender la emergencia de las Teorías de Redes como paradigma de interpretación desde la Física y las Ciencias Matemáticas hacia ámbitos aparentemente distintos, como el comportamiento de otros animales, Internet o la Sociedad, profundiza en la misma idea principal: también como colectivo, como sociedad, seguimos leyes universales, en su mayoría por identificar pero que nos alejan de la sensación de azar aparente.

Somos, en definitiva, más predecibles de lo que podría parecer. Vivimos en un universo probabilístico, tal y como postulan algunas leyes estudiadas en la fisica, como la teoría cuántica o las teorías del caos, aplicadas también a las redes sociales hoy.
 

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Se tutto va bene, prima che abbiate finito di leggere questo libro vi avrò convinto che, nonostante tutta la spontaneità che potete mostrare, siete molto più prevedibili di quanto sareste disposti ad ammettere. Non è affatto una questione personale: prevedere me, come pure tutte le persone con cui vivo e lavoro, è altrettanto facile. Di fatto, gli algoritmi ideati nel mio laboratorio per scoprire quanto siamo prevedibili sono stati provati su milioni di individui e non hanno funzionato in un solo caso. Il nome di quest'uomo è Hasan. Hasan Elahi, per la precisione.
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Oggi un'azienda che ha sede nell'Illinois può trasformare le ceneri cremate del nostro caro estinto in un diamante da un carato e mezzo per soli 24999 dollari. Anche se non sono sicuro di voler davvero vedere mia nonna in un anello di diamanti, non si può non ammirare l'audacia commerciale di questa impresa tecnologica. A rigor di termini, non si tratta di trasmutazione, poiché le ceneri e i diamanti sono entrambi composti di carbonio. Non male, tuttavia. Nel 1980, Glenn Seaborg, seguendo le orme di Rutherford, è riuscito a trasformare in oro un elemento chimico, il bismuto. Senza dubbio Newton sarebbe stato orgoglioso dell'impresa. Ma Seaborg ha constatato che, a causa della quantità di energia necessaria, la procedura senz'altro non è economicamente fattibile.
Il successo di Seaborg ha dimostrato, tuttavia, l'applicabilità dei metodi quantitativi a settori che la scienza da tempo considera dubbi o addirittura immaginari. Se riusciremo a perfezionare i metodi scientifici, potremo mai realizzare metamorfosi simili nel comportamento umano? Potremo trasformarla in una scienza precisa, predittiva? Potremo fermare la prossima pandemia prevedendo il percorso del virus, indicando con precisione da quali strade tenersi lontani il giorno dopo per evitare il contagio? E' possibile che i notiziari della sera smettano di segnalare eventi del passato e inizino invece a funzionare un po' come le previsioni del tempo, comunicandoci quali sviluppi delle faccende umane dovremmo aspettarci nei giorni seguenti?
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Science. Nonfiction. The author's premise that historically significant human behaviors and actions appear in bursts finds little support in his lengthy narrative. Long stories without any seeming relationship to his thesis abound. We hear a chimera of vague science, tales of Papal ascendancy, and a tedious description of a sixteenth-century peasants' revolt. What should be a valuable educational experience turns into journey with no direction. Narrator Richard McGonagle's bass voice and bombastic manner elevate his role to more prominence than it merits. He stumbles on common scientific words and maintains an emotionless cadence. Overall, the combination of the writer's disorganization and the narrator's exaggerated delivery results in a less-than-effective production. J.A.H. (c) AudioFile 2010, Portland, Maine. HTML:A revolutionary new theory showing how we can predict human behavior-from a radical genius and bestselling author
Can we scientifically predict our future? Scientists and pseudo scientists have been pursuing this mystery for hundreds and perhaps thousands of years. But now, astonishing new research is revealing patterns in human behavior previously thought to be purely random. Precise, orderly, predictable patterns...
Albert Laszlo Barabasi, already the world's preeminent researcher on the science of networks, describes his work on this profound mystery in Bursts, a stunningly original investigation into human nature. His approach relies on the digital reality of our world, from mobile phones to the Internet and email, because it has turned society into a huge research laboratory. All those electronic trails of time stamped texts, voicemails, and internet searches add up to a previously unavailable massive data set of statistics that track our movements, our decisions, our lives. Analysis of these trails is offering deep insights into the rhythm of how we do everything. His finding? We work and fight and play in short flourishes of activity followed by next to nothing. The pattern isn't random, it's "bursty." Randomness does not rule our lives in the way scientists have assumed up until now.
Illustrating this revolutionary science, Barabasi artfully weaves together the story of a 16th century burst of human activity-a bloody medieval crusade launched in his homeland, Transylvania-with the modern tale of a contemporary artist hunted by the FBI through our post 9/11 surveillance society. These narratives illustrate how predicting human behavior has long been the obsession, sometimes the duty, of those in power. Barabsi's astonishingly wide range of examples from seemingly unrelated areas include how dollar bills move around the U.S., the pattern everyone follows in writing email, the spread of epidemics, and even the flight patterns of albatross. In all these phenomena a virtually identical, mathematically described bursty pattern emerges.
Bursts reveals what this amazing new research is showing us about where individual spontaneity ends and predictability in human behavior begins. The way you think about your own potential to do something truly extraordinary will never be the same.

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