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When the Money Runs Out: The End of Western Affluence

door Stephen D. King

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The Western world has experienced extraordinary economic progress throughout the last six decades, a prosperous period so extended that continuous economic growth has come to seem normal. But such an era of continuously rising living standards is a historical anomaly, economist Stephen D. King warns, and the current stagnation of Western economies threatens to reach crisis proportions in the not-so-distant future. Praised for the "dose of realism" he provided in his book Losing Control, King follows up in this volume with a plain-spoken assessment of where the West stands today. It's not just the end of an age of affluence, he shows. We have made promises to ourselves that are achievable only through ongoing economic expansion. The future benefits we expect-pensions, healthcare, and social security, for example-may be larger than tomorrow's resources. And if we reach that point, which promises will be broken and who will lose out? The lessons of history offer compelling evidence that political and social upheaval are often born of economic stagnation. King addresses these lessons with a multifaceted plan that involves painful-but necessary-steps toward a stable and just economic future.… (meer)
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An interesting and provocative book that covers a lot of historical and macroeconomic ground in making an argument that the West is going through not a cyclical slowdown that can be addressed by macroeconomic measures but a long-term structural slowdown like that experienced by Argentina starting a century ago or Japan twenty years ago. But Stephen King does not always convincingly link his historical analysis to his present diagnosis (e.g., he believes that one way stagnation becomes self-fulfilling is it leads to anti-immigrant policies, then he says that is exactly what is happening in the United States today, citing Arizona but missing the Federal debate on immigration which undercuts his thesis), some of his economic analysis is contradictory (he can't decide if he likes QE because it prevented a second Great Depression or does not like it because it distracts from addressing what he sees as structural problems), and ultimately it is longer on diagnosis than it is on prescription (which for the United States mainly consisted for more medium-term entitlement reform for fiscal policy, nominal GDP targeting for monetary policy, greater worldwide coordination of financial regulation, and economists being required to study history). ( )
1 stem nosajeel | Jun 21, 2014 |
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The Western world has experienced extraordinary economic progress throughout the last six decades, a prosperous period so extended that continuous economic growth has come to seem normal. But such an era of continuously rising living standards is a historical anomaly, economist Stephen D. King warns, and the current stagnation of Western economies threatens to reach crisis proportions in the not-so-distant future. Praised for the "dose of realism" he provided in his book Losing Control, King follows up in this volume with a plain-spoken assessment of where the West stands today. It's not just the end of an age of affluence, he shows. We have made promises to ourselves that are achievable only through ongoing economic expansion. The future benefits we expect-pensions, healthcare, and social security, for example-may be larger than tomorrow's resources. And if we reach that point, which promises will be broken and who will lose out? The lessons of history offer compelling evidence that political and social upheaval are often born of economic stagnation. King addresses these lessons with a multifaceted plan that involves painful-but necessary-steps toward a stable and just economic future.

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