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Bezig met laden... Numbers Don't Lie: 71 Stories to Help Us Understand the Modern World (2021)door Vaclav Smil
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Countless insights. I believe it was Lord Kelvin who said you can only discuss things you can measure. While that may be debated this book provides a smorgasbord of measurements and much food for thought. It also serves as a continuing warning about climate change. Still out is a very upbeat presentation indicating many opportunities for action. Although billed as an "essential" guide to the constraints hemming in policy decisions in terms of production and energy use, this collection of essays by the noted polymath Vaclav Smil mostly exist to have provided him with amusement; having been given a platform by the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers. As for the overarching theme, you can say that it's about achieving efficiencies in modern industrial society, the constraints to doing so, and how how restraint in consumption is highly underrated. One thing that I can say is that even just dipping at random into this collection will probably make you feel smarter. The Guardian apparently calls him "the nerd's nerd" and he certainly covers a lot of ground and puts some really interesting statistics forward. For example he has computed the feeding efficiencies for different types of meat species: 3-4 units of feed per edible unit for broiler chickens, 9-10 for pork and 20-30 for beef.Interestingly this also demonstrates that Vaclav has his blind spots. Broilers are raised in intensive sheds and fed grain (which is grown elsewhere), Beef in the USA may also be produced on feedlots but can also be produced on the open range where the animals feed on low value grass or herbage which could not otherwise be utilised. So his equations are fine....as far as they go but they are not the full story. Similarly, he goes to great lengths to demonstrate that large wind generators absorb a lot of resources to construct. His implied conclusion is that they are not economic because of this....but he also has the throw-away line that these costs would be recovered in on year of operations. So, presumably, the next 19-20 years of generation would be virtually free (apart from maintenance costs and disposal coasts). I really enjoyed his articles. Each a short pithy essay making his points really strongly. For example: diesel engines are here to stay. There are no readily available mass-mover (container ships, bulk haul ships, trucks and freight trains) alternatives. However, I really detect a blind spot when it comes to the role of services in the economy. Vaclav seems to hold fast to the notion that the only good economic activity is manufacturing. This flies in the face of the reality that all of the advanced economies are increasingly reliant on services as the economic generator and most GDP in the developed countries is generated by the service sectors. (It's over 80% in USA and Australia for example). Manufacturing is a very small direct contributor But Vaclav writes like an engineer who places manufacturing on a pedestal and suggests that no other sector can generate so many well paying jobs. Sorry Vaclav. You are wrong. The service sectors generate by far the most jobs in advanced economies and tell the community that the lawyers, bankers, doctors, dentists, IT programmers, etc. have poorly paid jobs and you invite incredulity. Again Vaclav seems terribly out of touch, and has a real blind spot with the services sector. He does however make the point that the USA is not the world leader on a number of important indices such as life expectancy, infant mortality, obesity, happiness. (And, I might add, income equality). The USA is certainly up there with the leaders but lots of other countries are outperforming it. He has an interesting article about kerosene (which is the primary constituent of jet fuel). He makes the point that it has a very high energy density of 42.8 mégajoules per kilogram. This is slightly less than gasoline but it can stay liquid down to -47 degrees C, and it beats gasoline on cost evaporative losses and fire risk. He can't see an alternative to Kerosene for aviation but does make the point that today's airliners are burning about 50% less fuel per passenger km than they did in 1960. All in all, I found the book fascinating and his erudition impressive. I would have been even more impressed if I was not aware of those blind spots mentioned above. Happy to give it 4.5 stars. geen besprekingen | voeg een bespreking toe
Wat onthullen cijfers over de toestand van onze wereld? Vaclav Smil, de favoriete wetenschapper van Bill Gates, geeft antwoord op actuele en urgente vragen over energie, het milieu, technologie, transport en voedselproductie. Waarom moeten we diesel voorlopig nog niet afschrijven? Hoeveel wegen alle koeien ter wereld (en waarom zou je dat moeten weten)? En wat maakt mensen gelukkig? Cijfers liegen niet laat je met fascinerende voorbeelden en verhelderende illustraties anders naar de wereld kijken. Je komt te weten hoeveel mensen er nodig waren om de Pyramide van Cheops te bouwen, waarom Nederlandse mannen de langste ter wereld zijn en waarom elektrische auto's (nog) niet zo goed zijn als we denken. Vaclav Smil maakt duidelijk dat feiten ertoe doen en daagt je uit om de cijfers in de juiste context te plaatsen. Want cijfers liegen niet, maar welke waarheid brengen zij eigenlijk aan het licht? 'Er is geen auteur naar wiens boeken ik meer uitkijk dan naar die van Vaclav Smil.' Bill Gates 'Een van de belangrijkste mondiale denkers.' Foreign Policy 'Een van de meest vooraanstaande denkers ter wereld over de geschiedenis van innovatie en een meester in de statistiek (...) Er is geen andere wetenschapper die zo beeldend over getallen schrijft.' The Guardian 'Een origineel denker.' Sheila Sitalsing Bron: Flaptekst, uitgeversinformatie. Geen bibliotheekbeschrijvingen gevonden. |
Actuele discussiesWho designed the cover of Numbers don't lie : 71 stories to help us understand the modern world by Vaclav Smil in Book talk Populaire omslagen
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Et emne ad gangen bliver taget op og regnet lidt på. Fx regner han på vindmøller og gætter på at det er svært at få lavet 100 MW vindmøller, der kan konkurrere kommercielt. Men hvorfor grænsen lige går der? Børnedødeligheden er hans bedste bud på en indikator for livskvalitet. Og hvis man plotter lykkeindekset mod selvmordsfrekvens kan man se at der ingen sammenhæng er. Spøjst.
Og Første verdenskrig trak ud fordi industrien kunne producere alt muligt til erstatning af varer, man ellers ikke kunne importere mere.
Og han synes at Det moderne Europa er en fantastisk konstruktion, som vi - med alle dets mangler - burde være mere stolte af.
Elmotorer findes fra bittesmå vibratorer på brøkdele af W til mobiltelefoner til 60 MW motorer til transportbånd.
Sød lille bog med et hav af kondenseret viden. ( )