Hal Hill

Indonesia's New Order is a 304 page text book written in the early 1990s to analyse Indonesia's Orde Baru. It covers six areas in distinct essays: politics, economy, demography, environment, culture, and regions. These essays are of quite widely varying quality. The accounts of politics, economy, and demography are data rich and a fascinating study at that moment in time. The essays on environment, culture, and regions are more subjective analyses and while interesting to read what academics thought of contemporaneously, these are areas perhaps best now covered as history almost 20 years after the New Order fell.

The first essay in the collection is politics. Written by Jamie Mackie and Andrew MacIntyre it is a comprehensive analysis of the creeping control the Suharto regime succeeded in applying to the political scene between 1965-1998. Of course this work was first published in 1994 so it was just a few years before the end of New Order. To the credit of the authors, the prospect of the regime's downfall despite its seemingly all-powerful political position is posited as a possibility.

The essay on politics is filled with data and analysis. The data on Golkar's control over Parliament versus other parties is an excellent indication of the system Suharto developed. Equally, the use of tables to parallel developments over time gives a succinct and clear picture of the domination of one man over a country of hundreds of millions. There is some history in this despite it being a contemporary analysis. The history around Suharto's gradual replacement of Sukarno and his allies is such a very Javanese coup while set against the terrifying bloodletting of 1965.

Mackie and MacIntyre break down the Order Baru into three periods: 1965-74, 1974-82, 1982-92. The end point is seemingly arbitrary but appears to be chosen simply as the cut-off date for writing this essay. The three periods though are clearly distinct under Mackie and MacIntyre's analysis. The early period of consolidation is a near decade-long accretion of power and dispossessing of the potential Sukarnoite opposition. The 70s and early 80s are described as a time of 'narrowing the political base'. The use of constitutionally legitimate mechanisms to promote the all-pervading Golkar party leaves the running of the State in a narrow set of hands. It is though only the 82-92 period that the essay authors describe as leaving Indonesia completely in Suharto's hands.

Suharto's successful assumption of so much power in such a diverse country is analysed. The role of the military and of Islam come in for scrutiny. The military was of course the bulwak of the regime but Suharto managed to avoid any possibility of a coup from within its ranks. Islam and the State seemed to be enemies for a long time but once Suharto had absolute control there was a relaxation of the relationship. Interesting to read about future leaders like Gus Dur referenced in this essay.

Suharto's use of the pancasila ideology is and his close ties with big businesses showcase the intelligence of the man. Shaping the forces of culture within the country to keep him in power was a central tenet of his authority. Foreign policy is touched upon briefly, mainly focussing on the relationship with ASEAN which of course Indonesia was a driving force behind. The East Timor question is only mentioned really in passing but then the abhorrent bloodshed of the restoration of independence was still to come when this essay was written.

The economic essay by editor Hal Hill is the strongest part of the text. It is filled with glorious stats showing all sorts of trends under Suharto including a vast array of macroeconomic and social indicators. The data includes comparisons with other Asian economies, showing Indonesia performing pretty well. Under many of the comparisons Indonesia performs better than its competitors with the exception of China. There are fascinating graphs showing the gradual change of the Indonesian economy to become less focussed on agriculture and the impact of various price differentials for oil.

The economy is not just analysed nationally. There is also analysis by Hill of the differentiated economic development across the regions of Indonesia. The slow rate of growth in Nusa Tenggara Timur is obvious though some provinces such as parts of Kalimantan were already beginning to boom under Suharto.

Hill's work is not just stats and graphs, great as those are. It is also a political-economy analysis highlighting issues such as the distorting effect of striving for self-sufficiency in rice at the cost of other crops. The analysis over time shows the different responses to various shocks to the economic system. The change of approach following the oil price spikes and subsequent inflation in the 1970s demonstrates a thoroughly rational approach to economic policy.

Hill shows how Suharto managed to navigate various different potential crises. What he does not do however, is give an account of the economic circumstances that eventually led to the regime's collapse. Hill does not lay out a prescription for what Indonesia needed to do in the 1990s. He also does not go into much detail about the corruption which fuelled public resentment and ultimately the anger that overthrew the regime.

The third of the three data rich sections is on demography. Written by Terrance Hill and Gavin Jones it is an issue which seems ever so slightly odd to consider in such detail nowadays. Demography has fallen away from public discourse perhaps because it was such a successful area of public policy. The demographic trends are fascinating though. Hill and Jones forecast using various models into the demographic future and it is possible to see which models turn out the right population number some 22 years on. Incredible to read that Sukarno's aspiration was of a population reaching 250 million - not much below the total population now.

Demography was clearly a major challenge for the Orde Baru. The booming numbers of people, especially in densely populated Java was clearly unsustainable. Of course the most important factor in reducing fertility is female educational attainment though Hill and Jones do not really go into much detail on it. Instead what is covered are government schemes such as promoting birth control - interesting in a Muslim country.

Other demographic issues beyond raw population numbers are also analysed. Hill and Jones cover educational attainment and workforce prospects. The economics of demography are fascinating, The population of educated people is easy to see coming through over time and those first in through the improved education system manage to bank a larger share of the reward than those who come out later on when many more are educated. The employment trends are measured against the Asian Tigers and in that group with countries like Korea and Taiwan as competitors, Indonesia does not seem to have had such a great track record in shifting people to more productive activities as birth rates decline. A comparison against countries like Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam may have been fairer.

Transmigration is not covered in huge detail by Hill and Jones. The changing ethnic demographics of different regions and the Javanisation is an issue more for a later essay.

The 4th essay in the work is definitely the weakest. Written by Joan Hardjono it demonstrates none of the rigour of the first three. The analysis of resource use and the environment is not especially well written. It refers to too many obscure laws rather than showcasing the outcomes and trends. The amount of forested area in Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Papua (then Irian Jaya) over time would have been a worthwhile read. Instead this is largely a lengthy description of land use problems, especially around monocultures such as favoured rice varieties.

There is in this essay description of degraded lands for instance but no trend lines, no way to anticipate what comes next. Of course what has happened since the essay was written is the almost complete deforestation of Sumatra and such damage to Kalimantan it may already be too late to recover.

The 5th essay is markedly different from the rest. Its subject is cultural expression. Written by Barbara Hatley it is disappointingly Java-centric when Indonesian cultural art forms are so varied and beautiful across the archipelago. The first half of the essay is written like an art critic with breathy admiration for radical high art while bemoaning simplistic teledramas and Silat films. The first half of Hatley's essay is a paeon to great artists and their works, expressing the cultural impact of their talent. It is not especially interesting for those seeking to understand the Orde Baru.

The essay turns itself around in the second half and becomes a much more fascinating account of the role of cultural art forms under the Suharto regime. It is still heavily Java-centric but includes analysis of various performance styles that develop and either thrive or lose favour either from the regime or from a population already moving onto other formats.

A disappointing omission from this essay is Bali. The rich cultural traditions of Bali and their role in the tourist economy would have been worth a few paragraphs. The ongoing support for traditional styles that reaffirm cultural traditions across the islands of Indonesia could have been fascinating to read about.

The final essay is about regions. Written by Patrick Guiness it is a reasonable trot through some of the tensions between the centralised State and the power of local. The controlling forms of religion are discussed here, including Islam of course but the essay describes some of the flourishing traditions that maintained themselves through the pancasila doctrine and the pervading Islamisation of the country.

Some ground from earlier essays is covered again but the transmigration issue plays more strongly in this essay. The effects of transmigration on agricultural practices is covered but more interestingly the failure of many transmigration schemes and the local resentment they create is assessed as sharpening local traditions rather than simply accepting Javanese ones. Guinness brings to life the ingenious ways Adat has been forged into local laws. The Acehnese, Minangkabau, Torajans and so on have found ways to assert their local traditions into what seem like completely oppositional laws.

The essay does seem to lack analysis of the tensions in Indonesia's regions. The ground for the conflicts that sparked in places like Aceh, Sulawesi, Papua, and Timor is not really spelled out.

It is a fascinating work overall. A snapshot in time, analysing the Orde Baru from a variety of perspectives. It is a largely positive analysis. Suharto seems to have done really quite well as a dictator, guiding his country through various external shocks. The first three essays in particular are really strong with a raft of data and tables. The second half of the book is clearly weaker but these are still areas worth understanding for an understanding of Suharto's regime from a contemporary academic perspective.… (meer)

Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous nation and the dominant power of Southeast Asia, was characterised in the early 1960s as a 'chronic economic dropout'. Out of the turbulence of the mid-1960s has emerged one of the developing world's major socio-economic transformations. This is the first book to provide an integrated treatment of the Indonesian economy since 1966. Hal Hill offers a balanced analysis, evaluation and explanation of Indonesia's economic performance over the past three decades. It highlights the successes - rapid industrialisation, major achievements in the food crop sector, the adoption from the mid-1980s of outward-looking policies, and generally good social progress. It also draws attention to the country's challenges, including the rocky path towards economic reform, the large external debt, regional and ethnic disparities, and the need for a transparent and predictable policy environment.… (meer)