Australian Open 2013

Okay, so we're a few days in. Opinions? Comments? Thoughts?

Is Serena the one to beat?
What about Federer? How open is the field without Nadal?

Sharapova has won two rounds without losing a game. Can Serena match her? If Serena is on form can she go the whole tournament losing fewer than 10 games? Will anyone care if she does? Serena could easily do the Grand Slam this year as the standard in the women's game is so low at present - lots of bread-and-butter players but little to excite. On the other hand, Serena may lose the plot completely if she is involved in a tough match and end up punching the umpire, a linesman and her opponent, resulting in a $1.75 fine.

Only four men can win the men's tournament - Djokovic, Federer, Murray and Del Potro. Murray and Del Potro play in the quarters and should meet Federer in the semis. I then expect Federer to win and face Djokovic in the final. Djokovic will then win from being 6-0 6-0 5-0 down.

Curious to see if the young and big-hitting Madison Keys can beat #5 seed Kerber.

Brian Baker must have done something really bad in a previous life.

Never heard of Madison Keys but that's not surprising since the British papers only discuss women's tennis in terms of Laura Robson and Heather Watson now. She does sound a little like you bog standard female player though - powerful ground-strokes etc. What the women's game needs is someone who plays with more intelligence and variety. I'm beginning to wonder if all that is coached out of them in order to pursue a no-risk strategy which is effective until you come up against someone who hits the ball a harder.

Re Brian Baker - that is so unlucky, another 4 months out minimum plus time to get back in shape and practice. I think there is an element of truth in the theory that players who have serious injuries are often more susceptible to other ones due to one part of their body often compensating for another. Or he was Jack the Ripper in a previous life.

I thought I've heard commentators say that A Radwanska plays with more of an intelligent style, rather than a ground and pound, because she just doesn't have the strength to compete with the likes of Serena and Vika.

>5 gilroy: - there's the rub, in order to play an intelligent game you first have to concentrate on making sure you have the power to compete at the basic level.

Radwanska gets compared sometimes to Hingis for her court sense and all-court game. I like watching a player who uses variety and strategy instead of primarily power. And she's #4 in the world, so the power deficit hasn't held her back too much. Of course, against Serena on a good day, it's a quick match.

>4 Jargoneer: well she seems to have a great deal of composure, though as a 17 year old with no pressure, that may be easier than serving for the match at Wimbledon. She has a monster serve. The commentators were claiming she already has the second best serve in the woman's game; even allowing for hyperbole, it's a real weapon.

Okay, wow.

Masha dismantles Venus 6- 6-3.

>3 stellarexplorer:. Guess not yet on Madison Keys.

>2 Jargoneer: Agree with Jargoneer re: the men. Only those four, and to my way of thinking, a Murray - Djoke final seems the most likely.

And now there are only three men who can win....

Having had a chance to watch all the major contenders, at least a little, over the weekend I have to make Federer favourite - he beat Tomic and Raonic with ease, although perhaps they don't yet possess enough to put pressure on him. Tsonga could be more of a test, depending on which Tsonga turns up.
Djokovic was very lucky against Wawrinka, the Swiss player was on fire for patches and probably should have won but for a few bad choices at crucial moments. Berdych is looking good and could give the Serb another tough time.
Murray is through to the QF without playing well, he looks a long way off the pace but the draw has been very kind to him.

It doesn't look as if anything interesting is going to happen in the women's tournament until the SF and there is no guarantee that these will be competitive either.

Agree, Federer is looking good. But so are Berdych, Djoker, and it hasn't looked to me that Murray has needed to raise his level - he's won relatively easily. I wouldn't be shocked to see Murray win, frankly. And yes, Djoke was very fortunate to survive Wawrinka!

On the women's side, it's hard to see anyone beating The Serene One. Nice job by Li Na to beat Radwanska.

>13 stellarexplorer: - Sharapova is playing well, she doesn't appear to have any trouble with her shoulder at present, but I still think she is a little too one dimensional (which considering most of the women are one dimensional actually equates to something less than a single dimension).
If it was clay I would give Li Na more of a chance - I'm not sure she can beat the other favourites but they can certainly lose to her, the result being far more dependent on how they play.

Did Serena lose or did Sloane take advantage of the fact that Serena came up gimpy?
And does the American have a chance against Vika now?

In the other women's semi - Masha vs Li Na.

>15 gilroy: - I didn't see any of it but it sounds like Williams was in command until mid-way through the second set so I tend to believe that she really was injured. Allied to that, I saw Stephens play Laura Robson earlier in the tournament and I thought she was lucky to win that, Robson carrying an injury. I'm not convinced Stephens can beat Azarenka just yet.
Sharapova looks favourite now though.

Federer just sneaked by Tsonga. Still give him the edge over Murray who seems stuck in second gear. Djokovic to beat Ferrer.

I saw it. Serena was serving on average ~117 on her first serve before her back went into spasm. Then it was 87 for the next set and a half, and she made an uncharacteristic number of unforced errors. I felt that Stevens didn't take full advantage, playing far too many risky shots near the lines, many of which were out. She just needed to control risk, and she'd have had an easy time of it. Well, nonetheless, she won the second set.

By the third set, Serena was playing much better, and I give Stevens credit, because Serena's monumental will to win almost prevailed. But she still looked less than 100%. Her ground stokes were still hard, but her movement was not free. To her credit, Stevens was fully able to handle Serena's prodigious pace. Serena remained a dangerous wounded animal, but blow after blow took its measure, and ultimately the mighty beast fell hard to the ground, dead.

Poetic, stellarexplorer. I wish I could have seen it.....

So much for my statement about Sharapova being favourite, Li Na pummelled her.

Why was Azarenka allowed a medical time-out in the other semi? Her 'injury' appeared to have more to do with choking than anything physical?

Thought Ferrer would have delayed Djokovic a little more. Still a farce that the men's semis are played on different days, gives an advantage to one of the players.

Intriguing final. Not surprisingly, Stevens was not up to the task twice in a row. As much as she brings a fresh appealing personal charm to the game, i can't but feel that reports of her arrival are at this time exaggerated.

I'm pulling for Li Na. I like her wacky comfort with herself. And I especially do not like Azarenka's admission to Tom Rinaldi after the match that she had claimed two injuries - rib and knee- and received a ten minute medical stoppage when in fact she felt she was "choking" as Stevens made a second set charge. She was hyperventilating, unable to calm down: in other words, not an injury as defined by the rules, and certainly not two. Rather outrageous.

>19 Jargoneer: our messages crossed in the ether, Jargoneer. I believe the answer to your question is that the time out was granted because Azarenka claimed her problem was a rib injury. In other words, she lied to gain time. A few moments later she claimed a need for evaluation of her leg. Post-match (failing to support the lie) she acknowledged that she had not been injured. One assumes she was so overcome by making the final that the need to support the lie with a plausible story fell by the wayside.

>21 stellarexplorer: - a few people have asked whether Azarenka could be disqualified? After all, she effectively admitted to acting in an un-sportsman-like manner, which is a polite way of saying she cheated. In other sports, like golf, she would be shown the door regardless.

I'll have to check the replay to see this, as they played while I slept.

I can't see why not being able to breathe isn't seen as acceptable for an injury check. Consider, if no air gets to the blood, the player collapses. Collapsed player doesn't make for a good game. I think we saw that when one was taken off on a stretcher. (She was blonde, dressed in black, but can't for the life of me remember her name...)

It was very clear from her explanation (which I would expect to change subsequently): I felt I was choking (ie playing badly in a tight situation ), I was nervous, and I just started to feel that I couldn't get enough air in....

Panic attacks are not considered grounds for a time out. All the talking heads at court side were blown away by her admission. But if you are suggesting that a mental health timeout be part of the game, that would require a rule change.

Not suggesting mental health should create a rule change. But was trying to see if it was really "Couldn't Breathe" or "felt myself collapsing and needed to regroup."

In a later interview, she said she had a rib injury that was creating a problem. (?!?!?)

> yes, I'd say the same once I'd realized the trouble I'd created at courtside by being honest. I'm sorry for any confusion...I misspoke...

I suspect this issue will die out soon. It was wrong, but not criminal.

I can't tell you how bummed/angry I am to have missed the Murray-Federer match. ESPN changed the channel airing the match from ESPN2 to ESPN. My DVR had no idea, and neither did I. I want to murder someone.

So they completed the women's final this morning (3:30 AM EST for the US folk) I saw some highlights before my day began. 10 minute delay for fireworks a the beginning of the third set, then Li Na had a medical time out where they checked her for a concussion. She'd rolled her ankle earlier in the match and on the first point after the fireworks, rolled and took a nasty fall.