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Bezig met laden... Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better (2010)door Dan Gardner
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![]() Meld je aan bij LibraryThing om erachter te komen of je dit boek goed zult vinden. Op dit moment geen Discussie gesprekken over dit boek. ![]() ![]() When I got this I thought it was going to be another trite pop criticism book but it was pretty good and an easy read. I would recommend this as an antidote for anyone who has a habit of revering public "experts" to such an extent that they elevate them to the level of infallible prophets. So many predictions by scientists and economists are paraded about as authoritative and so many good people are seduced by them that they stop thinking for themselves. This book forces one to step back from the apocalyptic fringe and look at things a little more rationally and with some historical context. geen besprekingen | voeg een bespreking toe
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel,nbsp;experts said it would soon hit $200;nbsp;a few months later it plunged tonbsp;$30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future -- everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate -- and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin.nbsp;Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near. Geen bibliotheekbeschrijvingen gevonden. |
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![]() GenresDewey Decimale Classificatie (DDC)303.4909Social sciences Social Sciences; Sociology and anthropology Social Processes Social change Social forecasts History and biographyLC-classificatieWaarderingGemiddelde:![]()
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