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Life After Oil

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The Gulf Arab states became rich by accident. Their golden ticket was oil, which has become the lifeblood of their social and economic systems. But they are prone to become a 'vanishing Eden', if the oil curse endures further and economic transformation remains a mirage.  LIFE AFTER OILhighlights the economic vulnerability of the Gulf states after the oil party ends. The region depends heavily on imports financed by petrodollars. So, when demand for oil sinks and prices plummet, or when oil and gas reserves ultimately vanish, their survival will be extremely challenged.  LIFE AFTER OILraises the alarm to the impending survival challenges to face the burgeoning Gulf societies in the post-oil era, and tackles the ultimate question: what will the future look like?… (meer)
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Thanks to Netgalley and Matador for providing a free copy in exchange for an honest review.

Well structured, well researched, very informative and considered. This is a topic I'm forced to consider professionally and the issue is well flagged. The author has done a very good job in addressing the problems the Gulf Arab States face in replacing oil & gas income and what are currently the uses of oil proceeds, as well as indicating the existential issues the region as a whole is facing. Whilst Dubai has a head start in investing its commodity wealth into infrastructure and looking to draw alternative sources of income into the emirate, it is clear that the region as a whole will not be able to profit in a similar fashion as simply duplicating this process does not seem viable for the region as a whole.

The solution is in overcoming the political resistance to transform both the economies as well as the distribution of oil income, in a timely fashion. As always the path towards this goal is thoroughly unclear. The success of the author's proposal for a successful transition, by turning the issue to the people rather than the current regime, remains in doubt, especially when oil income represents such an important proportion of today's income. Nonetheless, there are several countries across the planet that rely to a significant degree on income derived from the exploitation of commodities that have gotten it right. And several that have gotten it disastrously wrong.

The solution remains elusive, although the author hints upon the similarities between those countries that "got it right". Living in the Netherlands, I'm well aware of the resource curse that this country faced and in contrast to Norway, gas revenues were neither invested in a sovereign wealth fund nor re-invested in long term infrastructure. The additional income was included in the government budget, arguably doing the same as is currently occurring in the Middle East, namely acting as a political pacifier. The good news was that this income by no means contributed to such a degree of government spending as seen in the Gulf Arab States.

In the end, there does not seem to be an obvious solution and I think the discussed issue ultimately transcends both oil and polity. A slow drawn out decline is usually insufficient to jolt a government into changing its ways. We will see in the coming years how the story this book looks into unfolds, which choices mattered and which proved detrimental to the stability of the region.

A very instructive and enjoyable read. ( )
  Herculean_Librarian | Sep 10, 2022 |
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The Gulf Arab states became rich by accident. Their golden ticket was oil, which has become the lifeblood of their social and economic systems. But they are prone to become a 'vanishing Eden', if the oil curse endures further and economic transformation remains a mirage.  LIFE AFTER OILhighlights the economic vulnerability of the Gulf states after the oil party ends. The region depends heavily on imports financed by petrodollars. So, when demand for oil sinks and prices plummet, or when oil and gas reserves ultimately vanish, their survival will be extremely challenged.  LIFE AFTER OILraises the alarm to the impending survival challenges to face the burgeoning Gulf societies in the post-oil era, and tackles the ultimate question: what will the future look like?

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